Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR myth · TE myth
Dome team outdoors: every call
Players from dome or roofed teams score less than projected in outdoor road games.
2024 backtest
375–246–68
60.4% vs 61.4% baseline
2025 backtest
380–236–65
61.7% vs 61.4% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
53–31–8
63.1% vs 61.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 339–194–34 | 63.6% | 63.7% |
| RB | 184–116–33 | 61.3% | 61.8% |
| TE | 177–120–58 | 59.6% | 60.9% |
| QB | 55–52–8 | 51.4% | 50.4% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 375–246–68 | 60.4% | 61.4% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 380–236–65 | 61.7% | 61.4% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W6 | Joe FlaccoQB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 13.8 | 13.7 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Kirk CousinsQB ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 17.1 | 12.5 | −4.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Damien WilliamsRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Keith SmithRB ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Stefon DiggsWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 13.2 | 19.7 | +6.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Eric TomlinsonTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Damiere ByrdWR ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Chris MooreWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Stephen AndersonTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Laquon TreadwellWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Mo Alie-CoxTE IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 3.0 | 8.1 | +5.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Zach PascalWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Isaiah McKenzieWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | James ConnerRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 14.9 | 6.6 | −8.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Dare OgunbowaleRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 7.5 | 0.8 | −6.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Joe MixonRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 12.8 | 27.2 | +14.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Ross DwelleyTE ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Will DisslyTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 3.5 | 6.6 | +3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Dalton SchultzTE HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 7.5 | 6.7 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Ray-Ray McCloudWR ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 10.0 | 4.3 | −5.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | DJ CharkWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 7.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Hayden HurstTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 5.7 | 0.0 | −5.7 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | KhaDarel HodgeWR ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 1.8 | 0.0 | −1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Steven SimsWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 1.2 | 0.0 | −1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Irv SmithTE HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Ashton DulinWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 1.9 | 0.0 | −1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | D.J. MontgomeryWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Keelan DossWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 3.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Kyler MurrayQB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 15.7 | 12.0 | −3.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Donald ParhamTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 3.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Jalen GuytonWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Greg DortchWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 6.3 | 4.6 | −1.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Juwann WinfreeWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Tony JonesRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Andre BaccelliaWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | J.J. TaylorRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 3.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | J.K. DobbinsRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 18.6 | 18.2 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Dalton KeeneTE HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Michael PittmanWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 12.9 | 12.5 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Darnell MooneyWR ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 14.1 | 6.8 | −7.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Justin HerbertQB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 13.7 | 13.7 | +0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Jalen ReagorWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Cam AkersRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 8.4 | -0.1 | −8.5 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | DeeJay DallasRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Charlie WoernerTE ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Chris BlairWR ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Nico CollinsWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 15.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Brevin JordanTE HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Simi FehokoWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 1.7 | 6.4 | +4.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Hunter KampmoyerTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Kylen GransonTE IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 3.5 | 0.0 | −3.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Michael CarterRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 3.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Rondale MooreWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 4.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Avery WilliamsRB ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Kyle PittsTE ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 8.8 | 10.0 | +1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Trey SermonRB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 12.0 | 2.9 | −9.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Josh PalmerWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 8.2 | 5.8 | −2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Amari RodgersWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Tre' McKittyTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Tyler GoodsonRB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 5.9 | 10.5 | +4.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Drake LondonWR ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 16.3 | 19.4 | +3.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Dameon PierceRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 4.0 | 14.7 | +10.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Tyler AllgeierRB ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 8.0 | 19.8 | +11.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Teagan QuitorianoTE HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Andrew OgletreeTE IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 1.7 | 4.4 | +2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Keaontay IngramRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 4.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Ethan FerneaWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Johnny Johnson IIIWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Stone SmarttTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 1.2 | 2.0 | +0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | John Metchie IIIWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 2.1 | 0.0 | −2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Hassan HaskinsRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 1.2 | 0.5 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Tucker FiskTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Alec PierceWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 9.4 | 0.0 | −9.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Trey McBrideTE ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 10.9 | 17.6 | +6.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Isaiah SpillerRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Will MalloryTE IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 1.8 | 0.0 | −1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Travis VokolekTE ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Bijan RobinsonRB ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 17.5 | 25.5 | +8.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Quentin JohnstonWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 8.5 | 5.2 | −3.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Michael WilsonWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 9.9 | 10.1 | +0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Derius DavisWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 1.6 | 3.2 | +1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Xavier HutchinsonWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Emari DemercadoRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 3.1 | 11.4 | +8.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Terrell BynumWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Elijah DotsonRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Tank DellWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 10.4 | 18.7 | +8.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Josh DownsWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 10.6 | 19.5 | +8.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Elijah HigginsTE ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 2.8 | 0.0 | −2.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | C.J. StroudQB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 16.6 | 18.4 | +1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Cade StoverTE HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 1.2 | 0.0 | −1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | British BrooksRB HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Tip ReimanTE ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Anthony GouldWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Marvin Harrison Jr.WR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 12.9 | 0.0 | −12.9 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Adonai MitchellWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 6.6 | 2.9 | −3.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Ladd McConkeyWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 10.0 | 8.3 | −1.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Trey BensonRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 2.9 | 2.6 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Joe FlaccoQB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 13.6 | 26.6 | +13.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Jimmy GrahamTE NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Brandon BoldenRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse