Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR myth · TE myth
Dome team outdoors: every call
Players from dome or roofed teams score less than projected in outdoor road games.
2024 backtest
375–246–68
60.4% vs 61.4% baseline
2025 backtest
380–236–65
61.7% vs 61.4% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
53–31–8
63.1% vs 61.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 339–194–34 | 63.6% | 63.7% |
| RB | 184–116–33 | 61.3% | 61.8% |
| TE | 177–120–58 | 59.6% | 60.9% |
| QB | 55–52–8 | 51.4% | 50.4% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 375–246–68 | 60.4% | 61.4% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 380–236–65 | 61.7% | 61.4% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W4 | Brandon PowellWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 3.6 | 0.0 | −3.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Michael GallupWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 4.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Royce FreemanRB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Sam DarnoldQB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 14.4 | 20.5 | +6.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | T.J. HockensonTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 9.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Josh OliverTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 2.3 | 9.0 | +6.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Myles GaskinRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | N'Keal HarryTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Darrell HendersonRB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI) | 6.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Trishton JacksonWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Sean McKeonTE DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Rico DowdleRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 8.2 | 13.1 | +4.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Colby ParkinsonTE LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI) | 5.7 | 7.3 | +1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Justin JeffersonWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 17.7 | 20.5 | +2.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | CeeDee LambWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 18.4 | 23.6 | +5.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Brycen HopkinsTE LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Tyler JohnsonWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI) | 8.1 | 0.0 | −8.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Tutu AtwellWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI) | 6.6 | 12.2 | +5.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Hunter LongTE LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Ty ChandlerRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 6.6 | 2.3 | −4.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Jalen NailorWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 6.8 | 4.1 | −2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Nick MuseTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Ronnie RiversRB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI) | 1.9 | 2.6 | +0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Jalen TolbertWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 6.8 | 5.4 | −1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | KaVontae TurpinWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 3.5 | 0.0 | −3.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI) | 16.8 | 20.4 | +3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Jake FergusonTE DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 10.7 | 11.9 | +1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Lucky JacksonWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Luke SchoonmakerTE DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 2.7 | 0.0 | −2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Deuce VaughnRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 2.8 | 0.0 | −2.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Jalen BrooksWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 2.8 | 0.0 | −2.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Hunter LuepkeRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 1.8 | 4.2 | +2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Jordan AddisonWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 9.3 | 22.9 | +13.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Davis AllenTE LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Puka NacuaWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI) | 12.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Zach EvansRB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Brevyn Spann-FordTE DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Blake CorumRB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Jordan WhittingtonWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI) | 3.1 | 12.2 | +9.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Eric TomlinsonTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PIT) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Stephen AndersonTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PIT) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Will DisslyTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PIT) | 2.6 | 4.9 | +2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Gus EdwardsRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PIT) | 5.2 | 0.9 | −4.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | DJ CharkWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PIT) | 8.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Hayden HurstTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PIT) | 5.5 | 3.5 | −2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Keelan DossWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PIT) | 3.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Donald ParhamTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PIT) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Jalen GuytonWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PIT) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | J.K. DobbinsRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PIT) | 13.1 | 8.4 | −4.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Justin HerbertQB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PIT) | 11.5 | 9.0 | −2.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Jalen ReagorWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PIT) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Simi FehokoWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PIT) | 0.7 | 2.7 | +2.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Hunter KampmoyerTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PIT) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Josh PalmerWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PIT) | 6.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Tre' McKittyTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PIT) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Stone SmarttTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PIT) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Hassan HaskinsRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PIT) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Tucker FiskTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PIT) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Isaiah SpillerRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PIT) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Quentin JohnstonWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PIT) | 7.7 | 12.4 | +4.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Derius DavisWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PIT) | 1.4 | 0.8 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Terrell BynumWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PIT) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Elijah DotsonRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PIT) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Ladd McConkeyWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PIT) | 8.1 | 7.4 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Brandon BoldenRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Kirk CousinsQB ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI) | 13.5 | 17.5 | +4.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Keith SmithRB ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Davante AdamsWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL) | 11.6 | 26.0 | +14.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Eric TomlinsonTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Damiere ByrdWR ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Ameer AbdullahRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL) | 2.0 | 2.2 | +0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Stephen AndersonTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Laquon TreadwellWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Mo Alie-CoxTE IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 2.5 | 3.2 | +0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Isaiah McKenzieWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Ross DwelleyTE ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Will DisslyTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 1.6 | 5.9 | +4.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Gus EdwardsRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 6.1 | 5.9 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Ray-Ray McCloudWR ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI) | 9.1 | 7.5 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Godwin IgwebuikeRB ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | DJ CharkWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 8.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Hayden HurstTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 6.1 | 1.5 | −4.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | KhaDarel HodgeWR ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PHI) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Jakobi MeyersWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL) | 7.8 | 6.9 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Alexander MattisonRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL) | 9.3 | 6.1 | −3.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Hunter RenfrowWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Ashton DulinWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 2.2 | 2.3 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | D.J. MontgomeryWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Keelan DossWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 3.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Zach GentryTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Gardner MinshewQB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL) | 10.7 | 12.9 | +2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Donald ParhamTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 3.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Jalen GuytonWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Jesper HorstedTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Juwann WinfreeWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | J.K. DobbinsRB LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 16.2 | 20.1 | +3.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Kristian WilkersonWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Jonathan TaylorRB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 15.0 | 15.5 | +0.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Harrison BryantTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs BAL) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Michael PittmanWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 13.3 | 5.1 | −8.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse