Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR myth · TE myth
Dome team outdoors: every call
Players from dome or roofed teams score less than projected in outdoor road games.
2024 backtest
375–246–68
60.4% vs 61.4% baseline
2025 backtest
380–236–65
61.7% vs 61.4% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
53–31–8
63.1% vs 61.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 339–194–34 | 63.6% | 63.7% |
| RB | 184–116–33 | 61.3% | 61.8% |
| TE | 177–120–58 | 59.6% | 60.9% |
| QB | 55–52–8 | 51.4% | 50.4% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 375–246–68 | 60.4% | 61.4% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 380–236–65 | 61.7% | 61.4% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W15 | Xavier SmithWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jalen BrooksWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 2.9 | 8.7 | +5.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jalen CropperWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Josh DownsWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 10.3 | 6.2 | −4.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jonathan MingoWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 3.1 | 0.0 | −3.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Puka NacuaWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 16.6 | 17.8 | +1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Ryan FlournoyWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jordan WhittingtonWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 2.3 | 0.0 | −2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Anthony GouldWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 0.9 | 3.3 | +2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Adonai MitchellWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 5.6 | -3.0 | −8.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 6.5 | 9.1 | +2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Equanimeous St. BrownWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Keith KirkwoodWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Cedrick Wilson Jr.WR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 3.6 | 2.8 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | DJ CharkWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 1.9 | 1.9 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Dante PettisWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 2.6 | 0.0 | −2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Jakobi MeyersWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 14.7 | 13.7 | −1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Hunter RenfrowWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 3.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Keelan DossWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 3.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Jalen GuytonWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Alex BachmanWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Kristian WilkersonWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Laviska Shenault Jr.WR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Lynn BowdenWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Jalen ReagorWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 2.7 | 1.4 | −1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | DJ TurnerWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 5.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Simi FehokoWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 3.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Terrace Marshall Jr.WR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 1.5 | 1.6 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Josh PalmerWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 8.0 | 13.8 | +5.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Kevin Austin Jr.WR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 6.9 | 1.5 | −5.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Chris OlaveWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 11.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Rashid ShaheedWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 12.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Quentin JohnstonWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 8.6 | 15.8 | +7.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Tre TuckerWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 10.1 | 2.7 | −7.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Derius DavisWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 2.3 | 2.1 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Justin ShorterWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | A.T. PerryWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 3.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Brenden RiceWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Ramel KeytonWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Jermaine JacksonWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Mason TiptonWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 4.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Jaylen JohnsonWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Ladd McConkeyWR LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 12.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Robert WoodsWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 2.9 | 0.0 | −2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Stefon DiggsWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 10.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Laquon TreadwellWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 2.7 | 0.0 | −2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Isaiah McKenzieWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Steven SimsWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jakobi MeyersWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 12.3 | 15.7 | +3.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Hunter RenfrowWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | D.J. MontgomeryWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Diontae JohnsonWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 6.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Alex BachmanWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Kristian WilkersonWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Michael PittmanWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 17.3 | 9.2 | −8.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | DJ TurnerWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 3.8 | 3.5 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Nico CollinsWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 13.3 | 19.9 | +6.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Terrace Marshall Jr.WR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Ethan FerneaWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Johnny Johnson IIIWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | John Metchie IIIWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 3.6 | 3.6 | −0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Alec PierceWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 10.1 | 9.6 | −0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Tre TuckerWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 7.4 | 13.9 | +6.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Justin ShorterWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Xavier HutchinsonWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Tank DellWR HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 10.5 | 3.3 | −7.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Ramel KeytonWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Anthony GouldWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Adonai MitchellWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 7.5 | 0.0 | −7.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Brandin CooksWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS) | 6.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Chris MooreWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Zach PascalWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Zay JonesWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA) | 1.8 | 0.0 | −1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Trent SherfieldWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI) | 1.5 | 0.0 | −1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Brandon PowellWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI) | 1.7 | 0.0 | −1.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Michael GallupWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS) | 3.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Greg DortchWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA) | 4.8 | 1.5 | −3.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Andre BaccelliaWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Trishton JacksonWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Justin JeffersonWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI) | 16.6 | 4.7 | −11.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | CeeDee LambWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS) | 16.8 | 16.8 | −0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Rondale MooreWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA) | 4.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Jalen NailorWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI) | 4.9 | 7.5 | +2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Jalen TolbertWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS) | 7.2 | 10.2 | +3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | KaVontae TurpinWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS) | 4.3 | 7.8 | +3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Lucky JacksonWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Michael WilsonWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA) | 9.2 | 7.4 | −1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Jalen BrooksWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS) | 3.3 | 5.1 | +1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Jalen CropperWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Jordan AddisonWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI) | 9.4 | 30.2 | +20.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Jonathan MingoWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS) | 4.0 | 1.8 | −2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Ryan FlournoyWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs WAS) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Xavier WeaverWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA) | 4.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Marvin Harrison Jr.WR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA) | 11.6 | 7.7 | −3.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Damiere ByrdWR ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Demarcus RobinsonWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 7.5 | 3.9 | −3.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Laquon TreadwellWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Isaiah McKenzieWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Cooper KuppWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 12.4 | 28.6 | +16.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Ray-Ray McCloudWR ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 8.3 | 10.6 | +2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse