Matchup edge · RB myth
Light boxes: every call
Backs who gain more per carry against six or fewer in the box do better against defenses that show light boxes often.
2024 backtest
12–13–2
48.0% vs 51.4% baseline
2025 backtest
7–24–3
22.6% vs 47.3% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
1–1
50.0% vs 50.0% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 19–37–5 | 33.9% | 49.2% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25–0.5 | 19–36–4 | 34.5% | 49.4% |
| 0.5–1 | 0–1–1 | 0.0% | 38.2% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W17 | Ty ChandlerRB MIN | Boost (Light boxes vs DET, expected +0.4) | 2.1 | 2.4 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Nick ChubbRB HOU | Fade (Light boxes vs SF, expected −0.3) | 8.6 | 8.9 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Isiah PachecoRB KC | Boost (Light boxes vs LV, expected +0.7) | 12.1 | 12.4 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Chris BrooksRB GB | Fade (Light boxes vs ARI, expected −0.3) | 1.7 | 2.1 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Gus EdwardsRB LAC | Fade (Light boxes vs CAR, expected −0.4) | 6.1 | 5.9 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse