Edgehalla

Matchup edge · RB myth

Light boxes: every call

Backs who gain more per carry against six or fewer in the box do better against defenses that show light boxes often.

2024 backtest

12–13–2

48.0% vs 51.4% baseline

Win rate 48.0% (95% 30.0%–66.5%) vs baseline 51.4%

2025 backtest

7–24–3

22.6% vs 47.3% baseline

Win rate 22.6% (95% 11.4%–39.8%) vs baseline 47.3%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

1–1

50.0% vs 50.0% baseline

Win rate 50.0% (95% 9.4%–90.5%) vs baseline 50.0%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
RB19–37–533.9%49.2%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
0.25–0.519–36–434.5%49.4%
0.5–10–1–10.0%38.2%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllRB
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Light boxes calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2026 W3Roschon JohnsonRB CHIFade (Light boxes vs PHI, expected −0.3)1.1––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2025 W18Roschon JohnsonRB CHIBoost (Light boxes vs DET, expected +0.5)2.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Roschon JohnsonRB CHIFade (Light boxes vs SF, expected −0.5)2.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Roschon JohnsonRB CHIBoost (Light boxes vs CLE, expected +0.3)2.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13D'Onta ForemanRB CLEFade (Light boxes vs SF, expected −0.3)2.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Roschon JohnsonRB CHIFade (Light boxes vs PHI, expected −0.3)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Raheem BlackshearRB CARBoost (Light boxes vs SF, expected +0.3)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Cam SkatteboRB NYGBoost (Light boxes vs DET, expected +0.3)11.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11James ConnerRB ARIFade (Light boxes vs SF, expected −0.3)12.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10James ConnerRB ARIFade (Light boxes vs SEA, expected −0.3)11.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Austin EkelerRB WASBoost (Light boxes vs DET, expected +0.4)10.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Khalil HerbertRB NYJBoost (Light boxes vs CLE, expected +0.3)1.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Ronnie RiversRB LARBoost (Light boxes vs SF, expected +0.3)2.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Austin EkelerRB WASFade (Light boxes vs SEA, expected −0.3)10.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Ty ChandlerRB MINBoost (Light boxes vs DET, expected +0.3)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Cam SkatteboRB NYGFade (Light boxes vs SF, expected −0.5)14.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Gus EdwardsRB LACFade (Light boxes vs IND, expected −0.4)6.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB KCBoost (Light boxes vs LV, expected +0.3)3.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6D'Onta ForemanRB CLEBoost (Light boxes vs PIT, expected +0.3)2.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Khalil HerbertRB NYJFade (Light boxes vs DEN, expected −0.3)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Ameer AbdullahRB INDFade (Light boxes vs LV, expected −0.6)7.96.6−1.3voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Austin EkelerRB WASFade (Light boxes vs LAC, expected −0.3)11.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Ty ChandlerRB MINBoost (Light boxes vs CLE, expected +0.4)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Ronnie RiversRB LARBoost (Light boxes vs SF, expected +0.3)6.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W4D'Onta ForemanRB CLEBoost (Light boxes vs DET, expected +0.3)2.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W4Ty ChandlerRB MINBoost (Light boxes vs PIT, expected +0.3)2.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W4Roschon JohnsonRB CHIBoost (Light boxes vs LV, expected +0.4)5.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W3Austin EkelerRB WASBoost (Light boxes vs LV, expected +0.3)14.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W3Gus EdwardsRB LACFade (Light boxes vs DEN, expected −0.3)3.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W3Michael CarterRB ARIBoost (Light boxes vs SF, expected +0.3)7.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W3Isaac GuerendoRB SFFade (Light boxes vs ARI, expected −0.3)4.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W2Ty ChandlerRB MINBoost (Light boxes vs ATL, expected +0.3)2.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W2Roschon JohnsonRB CHIBoost (Light boxes vs DET, expected +0.3)4.6––voidBacktest ·
2024 W14Kenneth Walker IIIRB SEAFade (Light boxes vs ARI, expected −0.3)14.6––voidBacktest ·
2024 W9Gus EdwardsRB LACBoost (Light boxes vs CLE, expected +0.5)4.8––voidBacktest ·
2024 W8Isiah PachecoRB KCFade (Light boxes vs LV, expected −0.3)14.0––voidBacktest ·
2024 W7Gus EdwardsRB LACFade (Light boxes vs ARI, expected −0.6)4.0––voidBacktest ·
2024 W5Elijah MitchellRB SFFade (Light boxes vs ARI, expected −0.3)4.6––voidBacktest ·
2024 W3Elijah MitchellRB SFFade (Light boxes vs LAR, expected −0.3)5.5––voidBacktest ·
2024 W3Michael CarterRB ARIFade (Light boxes vs DET, expected −0.3)3.5––voidBacktest ·
2024 W2Elijah MitchellRB SFFade (Light boxes vs MIN, expected −0.3)7.2––voidBacktest ·
2024 W2Michael CarterRB ARIBoost (Light boxes vs LAR, expected +0.3)3.3––voidBacktest ·

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse