Matchup edge · RB myth
Light boxes: every call
Backs who gain more per carry against six or fewer in the box do better against defenses that show light boxes often.
2024 backtest
12–13–2
48.0% vs 51.4% baseline
2025 backtest
7–24–3
22.6% vs 47.3% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
1–1
50.0% vs 50.0% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 19–37–5 | 33.9% | 49.2% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25–0.5 | 19–36–4 | 34.5% | 49.4% |
| 0.5–1 | 0–1–1 | 0.0% | 38.2% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W2 | Christian McCaffreyRB SF | Boost (Light boxes vs MIA, expected +0.3) | 23.1 | 22.6 | −0.5 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2025 W18 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB SEA | Fade (Light boxes vs SF, expected −0.3) | 13.7 | 17.3 | +3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Zach CharbonnetRB SEA | Fade (Light boxes vs SF, expected −0.3) | 10.2 | 18.7 | +8.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | C.J. HamRB MIN | Boost (Light boxes vs DET, expected +0.3) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Ameer AbdullahRB IND | Boost (Light boxes vs SF, expected +0.3) | 4.0 | 1.4 | −2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Jeremy McNicholsRB WAS | Boost (Light boxes vs DET, expected +0.3) | 4.6 | 3.9 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | J.K. DobbinsRB DEN | Boost (Light boxes vs LV, expected +0.3) | 15.3 | 9.4 | −6.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Ray DavisRB BUF | Boost (Light boxes vs MIA, expected +0.3) | 3.7 | 0.8 | −2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Derrick HenryRB BAL | Boost (Light boxes vs MIA, expected +0.4) | 18.7 | 13.1 | −5.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Ameer AbdullahRB IND | Boost (Light boxes vs LAC, expected +0.3) | 4.8 | 3.7 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Kareem HuntRB KC | Boost (Light boxes vs LV, expected +0.6) | 8.6 | 1.8 | −6.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Sean TuckerRB TB | Boost (Light boxes vs DET, expected +0.3) | 5.1 | 1.6 | −3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Boost (Light boxes vs CLE, expected +0.3) | 15.0 | 12.8 | −2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Kareem HuntRB KC | Boost (Light boxes vs DET, expected +0.4) | 7.8 | 4.4 | −3.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Isiah PachecoRB KC | Boost (Light boxes vs DET, expected +0.4) | 10.5 | 6.1 | −4.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Sean TuckerRB TB | Fade (Light boxes vs SF, expected −0.3) | 6.2 | 8.5 | +2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Tyjae SpearsRB TEN | Fade (Light boxes vs LV, expected −0.3) | 5.3 | 9.0 | +3.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | C.J. HamRB MIN | Boost (Light boxes vs CLE, expected +0.3) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | David MontgomeryRB DET | Boost (Light boxes vs CLE, expected +0.3) | 12.3 | 1.2 | −11.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Travis EtienneRB JAX | Fade (Light boxes vs SF, expected −0.3) | 14.9 | 19.5 | +4.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Derrick HenryRB BAL | Boost (Light boxes vs DET, expected +0.3) | 20.0 | 10.7 | −9.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Derrick HenryRB BAL | Boost (Light boxes vs CLE, expected +0.4) | 21.5 | 2.3 | −19.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | David MontgomeryRB DET | Fade (Light boxes vs CHI, expected −0.3) | 11.4 | 13.1 | +1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Chuba HubbardRB CAR | Fade (Light boxes vs ARI, expected −0.3) | 12.2 | 18.7 | +6.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Bijan RobinsonRB ATL | Fade (Light boxes vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 17.8 | 19.8 | +2.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Boost (Light boxes vs CLE, expected +0.3) | 15.1 | 5.8 | −9.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Chuba HubbardRB CAR | Fade (Light boxes vs ARI, expected −0.3) | 16.9 | 32.5 | +15.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Khalil HerbertRB CIN | Boost (Light boxes vs CLE, expected +0.3) | 1.9 | 0.0 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Kareem HuntRB KC | Boost (Light boxes vs CLE, expected +0.4) | 8.7 | 5.9 | −2.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | JaMycal HastyRB NE | Boost (Light boxes vs ARI, expected +0.3) | 2.2 | 0.0 | −2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Isiah PachecoRB KC | Boost (Light boxes vs CLE, expected +0.4) | 10.9 | 5.7 | −5.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jaleel McLaughlinRB DEN | Fade (Light boxes vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 5.8 | 9.4 | +3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Raheem MostertRB MIA | Fade (Light boxes vs ARI, expected −0.3) | 9.2 | 16.0 | +6.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Derrick HenryRB BAL | Boost (Light boxes vs CLE, expected +0.3) | 18.8 | 14.7 | −4.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Fade (Light boxes vs ARI, expected −0.3) | 14.8 | 26.7 | +11.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Isaac GuerendoRB SF | Fade (Light boxes vs ARI, expected −0.3) | 1.4 | 2.2 | +0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Cordarrelle PattersonRB PIT | Boost (Light boxes vs DEN, expected +0.3) | 1.9 | 0.3 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Austin EkelerRB WAS | Fade (Light boxes vs NYG, expected −0.3) | 10.8 | 11.5 | +0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse