Matchup edge · RB myth
Light boxes: every call
Backs who gain more per carry against six or fewer in the box do better against defenses that show light boxes often.
2024 backtest
12–13–2
48.0% vs 51.4% baseline
2025 backtest
7–24–3
22.6% vs 47.3% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
1–1
50.0% vs 50.0% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 19–37–5 | 33.9% | 49.2% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25–0.5 | 19–36–4 | 34.5% | 49.4% |
| 0.5–1 | 0–1–1 | 0.0% | 38.2% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W2 | Roschon JohnsonRB CHI | Fade (Light boxes vs MIN, expected −0.4) | 2.6 | 0.0 | −2.6 | ✅ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2025 W11 | Derrick HenryRB BAL | Boost (Light boxes vs CLE, expected +0.4) | 16.4 | 20.2 | +3.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Isaiah DavisRB NYJ | Fade (Light boxes vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 5.2 | 2.1 | −3.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Chuba HubbardRB CAR | Fade (Light boxes vs GB, expected −0.3) | 9.0 | 1.7 | −7.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Travis EtienneRB JAX | Boost (Light boxes vs LV, expected +0.3) | 15.6 | 16.5 | +0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Bijan RobinsonRB ATL | Fade (Light boxes vs SF, expected −0.4) | 21.7 | 21.2 | −0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Jonathan TaylorRB IND | Boost (Light boxes vs LV, expected +0.3) | 23.2 | 31.6 | +8.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Ray DavisRB BUF | Fade (Light boxes vs NO, expected −0.3) | 5.0 | 0.3 | −4.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Derrick HenryRB BAL | Boost (Light boxes vs CLE, expected +0.3) | 21.7 | 30.1 | +8.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Rhamondre StevensonRB NE | Fade (Light boxes vs ARI, expected −0.3) | 12.9 | 9.5 | −3.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Cordarrelle PattersonRB PIT | Fade (Light boxes vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 3.5 | -0.9 | −4.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | C.J. HamRB MIN | Fade (Light boxes vs ARI, expected −0.3) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Ty ChandlerRB MIN | Fade (Light boxes vs ARI, expected −0.4) | 3.6 | 0.2 | −3.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Derrick HenryRB BAL | Fade (Light boxes vs LAC, expected −0.4) | 16.5 | 14.0 | −2.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | David MontgomeryRB DET | Boost (Light boxes vs IND, expected +0.4) | 13.8 | 16.3 | +2.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Tyjae SpearsRB TEN | Boost (Light boxes vs LAC, expected +0.3) | 6.5 | 8.1 | +1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Roschon JohnsonRB CHI | Fade (Light boxes vs ARI, expected −0.3) | 5.9 | 4.1 | −1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Emanuel WilsonRB GB | Boost (Light boxes vs ARI, expected +0.3) | 5.4 | 8.3 | +2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Tyjae SpearsRB TEN | Fade (Light boxes vs IND, expected −0.3) | 8.9 | 2.7 | −6.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W2 | Najee HarrisRB PIT | Fade (Light boxes vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 11.5 | 8.4 | −3.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse