Matchup edge · RB myth · WR myth · TE C
Missed tackles: every call
Defenses that miss more tackles boost players who earn many yards after the catch or on the ground.
2024 backtest
461–500–67
48.0% vs 50.7% baseline
2025 backtest
345–372–50
48.1% vs 50.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
59–66–9
47.2% vs 49.7% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 568–625–76 | 47.6% | 50.9% |
| WR | 176–187–27 | 48.5% | 49.8% |
| TE | 62–60–14 | 50.8% | 48.0% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25–0.5 | 478–526–87 | 47.6% | 51.0% |
| 0.5–1 | 219–234–22 | 48.3% | 50.0% |
| 1+ | 109–112–8 | 49.3% | 48.9% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W17 | Andre BaccelliaWR ARI | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Rico DowdleRB CAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs SEA, expected +0.5) | 12.3 | 9.3 | −3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | J.K. DobbinsRB DEN | Fade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −1.4) | 13.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | D'Andre SwiftRB CHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs SF, expected −0.6) | 15.2 | 21.9 | +6.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Justin JeffersonWR MIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.3) | 14.6 | 7.0 | −7.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Antonio GibsonRB NE | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 4.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | CeeDee LambWR DAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs WAS, expected +0.3) | 18.6 | 9.6 | −9.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.4) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | DeeJay DallasRB JAX | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.3) | 1.6 | 2.1 | +0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Chuba HubbardRB CAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs SEA, expected +0.4) | 7.5 | 2.8 | −4.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jaret PattersonRB LAC | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.3) | 2.3 | 0.1 | −2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Rhamondre StevensonRB NE | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.5) | 14.9 | 27.2 | +12.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Najee HarrisRB LAC | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.5) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Khalil HerbertRB NYJ | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.3) | 1.6 | 0.5 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Michael CarterRB ARI | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +1.6) | 9.9 | 6.3 | −3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Travis EtienneRB JAX | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +1.0) | 17.3 | 11.2 | −6.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Javonte WilliamsRB DAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs WAS, expected +0.8) | 19.6 | 11.4 | −8.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Tyler BadieRB DEN | Fade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.4) | 3.4 | 0.0 | −3.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Bam KnightRB ARI | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +1.4) | 7.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Isiah PachecoRB KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.6) | 6.5 | 3.2 | −3.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | George PickensWR DAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs WAS, expected +0.3) | 19.1 | 11.8 | −7.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Rachaad WhiteRB TB | Boost (Missed tackles vs MIA, expected +0.3) | 7.8 | 3.7 | −4.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Dameon PierceRB KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.4) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Tyler AllgeierRB ATL | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.5) | 6.2 | 2.3 | −3.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Ty ChandlerRB MIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.3) | 2.1 | 2.4 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Sincere McCormickRB LV | Fade (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected −0.5) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Malik DavisRB DAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs WAS, expected +0.3) | 3.7 | 10.3 | +6.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Garrett WilsonWR NYJ | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.3) | 9.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Trey McBrideTE ARI | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +1.0) | 16.0 | 23.6 | +7.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Zamir WhiteRB LV | Fade (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected −0.3) | 2.5 | 0.2 | −2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Wan'Dale RobinsonWR NYG | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 15.0 | 22.3 | +7.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Breece HallRB NYJ | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −1.1) | 10.9 | 20.9 | +10.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Eric GrayRB NYG | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 1.8 | 0.0 | −1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Zavier ScottRB MIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.3) | 4.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Keaton MitchellRB BAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs GB, expected −0.5) | 4.0 | 5.8 | +1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Bijan RobinsonRB ATL | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −1.3) | 20.1 | 39.9 | +19.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Kendre MillerRB NO | Fade (Missed tackles vs TEN, expected −0.4) | 6.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Michael WilsonWR ARI | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.4) | 14.2 | 19.9 | +5.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Deuce VaughnRB DAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs WAS, expected +0.3) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jordan MimsRB NO | Fade (Missed tackles vs TEN, expected −0.3) | 4.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Emari DemercadoRB ARI | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +1.1) | 5.2 | 4.0 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jaleel McLaughlinRB DEN | Fade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.6) | 5.0 | 4.0 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Marvin Mims Jr.WR DEN | Fade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.4) | 6.3 | 4.0 | −2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Elijah HigginsTE ARI | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.4) | 3.7 | 0.0 | −3.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Zay FlowersWR BAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs GB, expected −0.3) | 12.8 | 13.0 | +0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Rashee RiceWR KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.6) | 11.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Carson SteeleRB KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Malik NabersWR NYG | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 11.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Brock BowersTE LV | Fade (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected −0.3) | 12.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Bucky IrvingRB TB | Boost (Missed tackles vs MIA, expected +0.4) | 12.5 | 8.3 | −4.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Audric EstiméRB NO | Fade (Missed tackles vs TEN, expected −0.3) | 7.5 | 16.8 | +9.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Tyrone Tracy Jr.RB NYG | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.9) | 14.0 | 6.7 | −7.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Kimani VidalRB LAC | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.4) | 8.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Braelon AllenRB NYJ | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.4) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Isaiah DavisRB NYJ | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.4) | 4.1 | 3.0 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Marvin Harrison Jr.WR ARI | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 10.8 | 0.0 | −10.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Troy FranklinWR DEN | Fade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.3) | 12.4 | 5.7 | −6.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Brian Thomas Jr.WR JAX | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.3) | 11.5 | 7.9 | −3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Xavier WorthyWR KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 8.4 | 0.1 | −8.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Trey BensonRB ARI | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +1.4) | 5.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Brashard SmithRB KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 2.4 | 9.5 | +7.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Ashton JeantyRB LV | Fade (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected −0.8) | 15.3 | 9.3 | −6.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Devin NealRB NO | Fade (Missed tackles vs TEN, expected −0.4) | 11.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Kyle MonangaiRB CHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs SF, expected −0.4) | 9.3 | 7.7 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Nate CarterRB ATL | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.4) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Corey KinerRB ARI | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +1.1) | 2.4 | 0.2 | −2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jaydon BlueRB DAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs WAS, expected +0.3) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Omarion HamptonRB LAC | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.6) | 10.4 | 20.0 | +9.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Cam SkatteboRB NYG | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +1.0) | 9.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Bhayshul TutenRB JAX | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.4) | 4.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | RJ HarveyRB DEN | Fade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.9) | 13.8 | 18.6 | +4.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | TreVeyon HendersonRB NE | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.6) | 13.5 | 8.2 | −5.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Quinshon JudkinsRB CLE | Boost (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected +0.5) | 10.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Darren WallerTE MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.4) | 7.7 | 7.0 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Derrick HenryRB BAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −1.7) | 17.0 | 22.8 | +5.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Tyreek HillWR MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.6) | 9.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Christian McCaffreyRB SF | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +1.5) | 23.7 | 32.6 | +8.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | George KittleTE SF | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.4) | 14.2 | 24.5 | +10.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Aaron JonesRB MIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected −0.6) | 12.8 | 11.3 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Patrick RicardRB BAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.3) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Dare OgunbowaleRB HOU | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 3.0 | 0.9 | −2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Joe MixonRB HOU | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +1.3) | 14.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Kareem HuntRB KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs TEN, expected −0.5) | 10.0 | 0.2 | −9.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Jeff WilsonRB MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.7) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Dalton SchultzTE HOU | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 10.7 | 14.5 | +3.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Cedrick Wilson Jr.WR MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 1.4 | 2.1 | +0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Nick ChubbRB HOU | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.6) | 6.0 | 5.2 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | DJ MooreWR CHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs GB, expected −0.3) | 15.7 | 21.9 | +6.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Saquon BarkleyRB PHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs WAS, expected +0.8) | 17.2 | 21.2 | +4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Jakobi MeyersWR JAX | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 11.6 | 8.6 | −3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Alexander MattisonRB LV | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.4) | 4.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Justice HillRB BAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.7) | 4.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Alec IngoldRB MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.4) | 1.7 | 1.9 | +0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Tony PollardRB TEN | Fade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −1.3) | 10.7 | 10.2 | −0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Myles GaskinRB SEA | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | DK MetcalfWR PIT | Fade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.3) | 13.6 | 8.2 | −5.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | David MontgomeryRB DET | Boost (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected +0.5) | 11.3 | 1.4 | −9.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Patrick TaylorRB SF | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.6) | 3.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Jonathan TaylorRB IND | Fade (Missed tackles vs SF, expected −0.8) | 18.1 | 16.9 | −1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | D'Andre SwiftRB CHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs GB, expected −1.0) | 14.6 | 9.0 | −5.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse