Matchup edge · RB myth · WR myth · TE C
Missed tackles: every call
Defenses that miss more tackles boost players who earn many yards after the catch or on the ground.
2024 backtest
461–500–67
48.0% vs 50.7% baseline
2025 backtest
345–372–50
48.1% vs 50.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
59–66–9
47.2% vs 49.7% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 568–625–76 | 47.6% | 50.9% |
| WR | 176–187–27 | 48.5% | 49.8% |
| TE | 62–60–14 | 50.8% | 48.0% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25–0.5 | 478–526–87 | 47.6% | 51.0% |
| 0.5–1 | 219–234–22 | 48.3% | 50.0% |
| 1+ | 109–112–8 | 49.3% | 48.9% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W16 | DK MetcalfWR SEA | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 13.2 | 14.7 | +1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Marquise BrownWR KC | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.3) | 10.5 | 9.5 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Josh JacobsRB GB | Boost (Missed tackles vs NO, expected +0.8) | 21.3 | 20.7 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Deebo Samuel Sr.WR SF | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIA, expected −0.3) | 10.9 | 25.1 | +14.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jonathan TaylorRB IND | Fade (Missed tackles vs TEN, expected −0.4) | 14.7 | 39.8 | +25.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Antonio GibsonRB NE | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.6) | 5.0 | 5.6 | +0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Rhamondre StevensonRB NE | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.9) | 11.3 | 12.3 | +1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Travis EtienneRB JAX | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +1.5) | 12.0 | 5.7 | −6.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Isiah PachecoRB KC | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +1.4) | 8.6 | 3.5 | −5.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jaylen WarrenRB PIT | Fade (Missed tackles vs BAL, expected −0.8) | 9.7 | 14.2 | +4.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | James CookRB BUF | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −1.2) | 19.4 | 27.6 | +8.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Tyler AllgeierRB ATL | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected +0.4) | 7.7 | 4.1 | −3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Garrett WilsonWR NYJ | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.3) | 14.1 | 11.4 | −2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Trey McBrideTE ARI | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 17.0 | 5.0 | −12.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Isaiah LikelyTE BAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.3) | 7.8 | 11.9 | +4.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Breece HallRB NYJ | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +1.1) | 14.9 | 14.0 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB SEA | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −1.0) | 13.0 | 13.9 | +0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR SEA | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 14.4 | 24.0 | +9.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Kenny McIntoshRB SEA | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 3.2 | 3.9 | +0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Brenton StrangeTE JAX | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 5.6 | 2.2 | −3.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Puka NacuaWR LAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.6) | 16.9 | 13.6 | −3.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Carson SteeleRB KC | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.4) | 1.8 | 0.0 | −1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Bucky IrvingRB TB | Fade (Missed tackles vs DAL, expected −0.8) | 12.9 | 18.2 | +5.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Blake CorumRB LAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.4) | 3.6 | 1.4 | −2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jordan WhittingtonWR LAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.4) | 2.2 | 0.0 | −2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Braelon AllenRB NYJ | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.4) | 4.5 | 2.0 | −2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Isaiah DavisRB NYJ | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.4) | 4.8 | 1.2 | −3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Keenan AllenWR CHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 12.3 | 20.2 | +7.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Raheem MostertRB MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +1.1) | 6.1 | 5.1 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Derrick HenryRB BAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected +0.7) | 20.8 | 6.7 | −14.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Tyreek HillWR MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.6) | 15.0 | 5.6 | −9.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | George KittleTE SF | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.5) | 12.8 | 10.1 | −2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Aaron JonesRB MIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs CHI, expected −1.0) | 16.0 | 18.6 | +2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | James ConnerRB ARI | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −1.4) | 20.6 | 30.8 | +10.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Kareem HuntRB KC | Boost (Missed tackles vs CLE, expected +0.5) | 8.7 | 5.9 | −2.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Ray-Ray McCloudWR ATL | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.5) | 10.2 | 2.4 | −7.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | DJ MooreWR CHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −0.5) | 14.3 | 15.0 | +0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | KhaDarel HodgeWR ATL | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 1.2 | 0.0 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Alec IngoldRB MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.3) | 1.8 | 0.0 | −1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Devin SingletaryRB NYG | Fade (Missed tackles vs BAL, expected −0.5) | 4.6 | 13.1 | +8.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Tony PollardRB TEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 13.6 | 8.5 | −5.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | A.J. BrownWR PHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.6) | 16.0 | 25.0 | +9.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Deebo Samuel Sr.WR SF | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.7) | 10.8 | 4.9 | −5.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Patrick TaylorRB SF | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.4) | 3.7 | 0.0 | −3.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jauan JenningsWR SF | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.3) | 14.0 | 5.1 | −8.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Darnell MooneyWR ATL | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 13.4 | 0.0 | −13.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Justin JeffersonWR MIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs CHI, expected −0.3) | 17.5 | 20.3 | +2.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Cam AkersRB MIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs CHI, expected −0.4) | 5.4 | 8.4 | +3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jaylen WaddleWR MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.5) | 11.5 | 0.0 | −11.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | DeVonta SmithWR PHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.4) | 12.7 | 28.0 | +15.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Kenny GainwellRB PHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.7) | 5.0 | 9.0 | +4.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DET | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.5) | 17.7 | 37.3 | +19.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Kyle PittsTE ATL | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 8.4 | 6.8 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Javonte WilliamsRB DEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.8) | 12.5 | 4.3 | −8.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Isiah PachecoRB KC | Boost (Missed tackles vs CLE, expected +0.7) | 10.9 | 5.7 | −5.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Drake LondonWR ATL | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 16.4 | 14.3 | −2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | James CookRB BUF | Fade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.3) | 16.4 | 26.3 | +9.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Tyler AllgeierRB ATL | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +1.0) | 7.5 | 4.3 | −3.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Trey McBrideTE ARI | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.4) | 16.9 | 17.7 | +0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs SF, expected +0.6) | 16.4 | 13.2 | −3.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jake FergusonTE DAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 7.4 | 4.3 | −3.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Bijan RobinsonRB ATL | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +2.0) | 20.4 | 14.5 | −5.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Kendre MillerRB NO | Fade (Missed tackles vs WAS, expected −0.3) | 3.6 | 4.6 | +1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Tank BigsbyRB JAX | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.5) | 6.7 | 4.2 | −2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Chase BrownRB CIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs TEN, expected −0.7) | 18.4 | 26.3 | +7.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +1.8) | 16.3 | 14.6 | −1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Sam LaPortaTE DET | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.3) | 10.8 | 18.1 | +7.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −1.6) | 19.6 | 28.4 | +8.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Audric EstiméRB DEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.4) | 3.3 | 2.8 | −0.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Ricky PearsallWR SF | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.3) | 4.8 | 2.6 | −2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | George KittleTE SF | Fade (Missed tackles vs CHI, expected −0.3) | 10.9 | 21.1 | +10.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | David NjokuTE CLE | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.6) | 10.9 | 17.2 | +6.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Alvin KamaraRB NO | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected +0.5) | 23.6 | 12.9 | −10.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Cooper KuppWR LAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.5) | 13.7 | 20.2 | +6.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Ray-Ray McCloudWR ATL | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 9.0 | 18.1 | +9.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Saquon BarkleyRB PHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +1.6) | 27.2 | 14.4 | −12.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Devin SingletaryRB NYG | Boost (Missed tackles vs NO, expected +0.6) | 6.5 | 0.8 | −5.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | A.J. BrownWR PHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.4) | 22.0 | 8.3 | −13.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Patrick TaylorRB SF | Fade (Missed tackles vs CHI, expected −0.3) | 2.1 | 8.5 | +6.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | D'Andre SwiftRB CHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs SF, expected +0.6) | 16.4 | 5.0 | −11.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Darrynton EvansRB CHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs SF, expected +0.3) | 4.2 | 0.3 | −3.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Jerry JeudyWR CLE | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.4) | 14.3 | 17.4 | +3.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Najee HarrisRB PIT | Boost (Missed tackles vs CLE, expected +0.7) | 16.0 | 11.3 | −4.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Ja'Marr ChaseWR CIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs DAL, expected −0.3) | 18.8 | 45.1 | +26.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Kenny GainwellRB PHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.4) | 6.0 | 5.3 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Isiah PachecoRB KC | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAC, expected +0.3) | 11.4 | 8.1 | −3.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Jaylen WarrenRB PIT | Boost (Missed tackles vs CLE, expected +0.6) | 10.3 | 9.2 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | James CookRB BUF | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +1.2) | 17.9 | 4.9 | −13.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Tyler AllgeierRB ATL | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −0.7) | 6.1 | 12.3 | +6.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Garrett WilsonWR NYJ | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIA, expected −0.3) | 15.4 | 18.4 | +3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −1.6) | 16.3 | 23.7 | +7.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Bijan RobinsonRB ATL | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −1.4) | 17.3 | 20.1 | +2.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Tank BigsbyRB JAX | Fade (Missed tackles vs TEN, expected −0.3) | 5.9 | 13.2 | +7.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Chase BrownRB CIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs DAL, expected −0.5) | 17.2 | 24.3 | +7.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Puka NacuaWR LAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.7) | 13.8 | 41.8 | +28.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Bucky IrvingRB TB | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +1.1) | 13.3 | 2.8 | −10.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Isaac GuerendoRB SF | Fade (Missed tackles vs CHI, expected −0.3) | 3.4 | 26.8 | +23.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Blake CorumRB LAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.4) | 2.7 | 3.4 | +0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Braelon AllenRB NYJ | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIA, expected −0.4) | 9.7 | 12.1 | +2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Isaiah DavisRB NYJ | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIA, expected −0.3) | 4.2 | 15.7 | +11.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse