Matchup edge · RB myth · WR myth · TE C
Missed tackles: every call
Defenses that miss more tackles boost players who earn many yards after the catch or on the ground.
2024 backtest
461–500–67
48.0% vs 50.7% baseline
2025 backtest
345–372–50
48.1% vs 50.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
59–66–9
47.2% vs 49.7% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 568–625–76 | 47.6% | 50.9% |
| WR | 176–187–27 | 48.5% | 49.8% |
| TE | 62–60–14 | 50.8% | 48.0% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25–0.5 | 478–526–87 | 47.6% | 51.0% |
| 0.5–1 | 219–234–22 | 48.3% | 50.0% |
| 1+ | 109–112–8 | 49.3% | 48.9% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W11 | Tyjae SpearsRB TEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.6) | 7.0 | 8.4 | +1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs WAS, expected +0.8) | 21.7 | 21.5 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Rashee RiceWR KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 15.0 | 9.8 | −5.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Fade (Missed tackles vs PHI, expected −0.3) | 17.6 | 19.6 | +1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Jayden ReedWR GB | Fade (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected −0.3) | 6.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Zach CharbonnetRB SEA | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.7) | 9.6 | 6.7 | −2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | George HolaniRB SEA | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.4) | 2.8 | 0.6 | −2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Tyrone Tracy Jr.RB NYG | Fade (Missed tackles vs GB, expected −0.5) | 9.6 | 17.9 | +8.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Roman WilsonWR PIT | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.4) | 3.7 | 2.7 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Terrell JenningsRB NE | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 4.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Braelon AllenRB NYJ | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.4) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Isaiah DavisRB NYJ | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.4) | 4.7 | 1.1 | −3.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Troy FranklinWR DEN | Fade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.3) | 12.5 | 12.4 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Trey BensonRB ARI | Fade (Missed tackles vs SF, expected −0.3) | 7.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Brashard SmithRB KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 5.7 | 2.8 | −2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Kaleb JohnsonRB PIT | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.6) | 2.2 | 1.5 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Jaydon BlueRB DAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 2.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Cam SkatteboRB NYG | Fade (Missed tackles vs GB, expected −0.6) | 12.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | RJ HarveyRB DEN | Fade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.7) | 13.0 | 8.0 | −5.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | TreVeyon HendersonRB NE | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.7) | 17.1 | 32.3 | +15.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Raheem MostertRB LV | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 2.4 | 2.5 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Derrick HenryRB BAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 15.9 | 11.4 | −4.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Christian McCaffreyRB SF | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −1.6) | 21.5 | 17.6 | −3.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | George KittleTE SF | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.4) | 9.3 | 23.4 | +14.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Aaron JonesRB MIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs BAL, expected −0.3) | 8.9 | 15.9 | +7.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | James ConnerRB ARI | Boost (Missed tackles vs SEA, expected +0.5) | 11.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Austin EkelerRB WAS | Fade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.5) | 10.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | D'Onta ForemanRB CLE | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.4) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | DJ MooreWR CHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected −0.4) | 12.7 | 0.0 | −12.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Saquon BarkleyRB PHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs GB, expected −0.8) | 15.1 | 13.1 | −2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Jakobi MeyersWR JAX | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.3) | 13.1 | 7.1 | −6.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Alexander MattisonRB LV | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.4) | 5.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Craig ReynoldsRB DET | Boost (Missed tackles vs WAS, expected +0.3) | 2.4 | 0.0 | −2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Travis HomerRB CHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected −0.4) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | David MontgomeryRB DET | Boost (Missed tackles vs WAS, expected +0.8) | 12.2 | 10.1 | −2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Josh JacobsRB GB | Fade (Missed tackles vs PHI, expected −0.4) | 16.5 | 19.7 | +3.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Deebo Samuel Sr.WR WAS | Fade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.3) | 16.2 | 12.9 | −3.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Patrick TaylorRB SF | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.7) | 3.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | J.K. DobbinsRB DEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +1.0) | 15.3 | 9.4 | −6.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Jonathan TaylorRB IND | Fade (Missed tackles vs ATL, expected −0.5) | 22.1 | 49.6 | +27.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | D'Andre SwiftRB CHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected −1.1) | 13.7 | 14.8 | +1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | DeeJay DallasRB JAX | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.3) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Najee HarrisRB LAC | Boost (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 4.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Michael CarterRB ARI | Boost (Missed tackles vs SEA, expected +0.3) | 7.0 | 0.4 | −6.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DET | Boost (Missed tackles vs WAS, expected +0.3) | 21.2 | 16.8 | −4.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Travis EtienneRB JAX | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.9) | 13.8 | 15.7 | +1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Tyler BadieRB DEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 3.0 | 0.0 | −3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Jake TongesTE SF | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 4.5 | 0.0 | −4.5 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Bam KnightRB ARI | Boost (Missed tackles vs SEA, expected +0.3) | 8.5 | 4.3 | −4.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Jaylen WarrenRB PIT | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAC, expected −0.3) | 12.7 | 11.1 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Jameson WilliamsWR DET | Boost (Missed tackles vs WAS, expected +0.3) | 11.6 | 23.9 | +12.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | James CookRB BUF | Boost (Missed tackles vs MIA, expected +0.3) | 20.7 | 10.7 | −10.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Rachaad WhiteRB TB | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.6) | 14.6 | 10.4 | −4.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Jerome FordRB CLE | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.5) | 6.5 | 0.1 | −6.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Sincere McCormickRB LV | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.4) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Brian RobinsonRB SF | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.8) | 3.3 | 11.5 | +8.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs SF, expected −0.4) | 17.5 | 22.4 | +4.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Pierre StrongRB CLE | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Breece HallRB NYJ | Fade (Missed tackles vs CLE, expected −0.4) | 14.3 | 19.5 | +5.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Tank BigsbyRB PHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs GB, expected −0.4) | 4.8 | 0.7 | −4.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB WAS | Fade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.3) | 4.1 | 7.6 | +3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Jaleel McLaughlinRB DEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.5) | 4.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Sean TuckerRB TB | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.3) | 5.4 | 6.1 | +0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Roschon JohnsonRB CHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected −0.3) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.3) | 18.4 | 40.5 | +22.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Sam LaPortaTE DET | Boost (Missed tackles vs WAS, expected +0.3) | 12.0 | 10.3 | −1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Boost (Missed tackles vs WAS, expected +1.1) | 21.1 | 38.2 | +17.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Brock BowersTE LV | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 13.9 | 3.7 | −10.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Isaac GuerendoRB SF | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.7) | 3.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Sione VakiRB DET | Boost (Missed tackles vs WAS, expected +0.3) | 1.6 | 0.4 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Trey BensonRB ARI | Boost (Missed tackles vs SEA, expected +0.3) | 6.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Ashton JeantyRB LV | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.7) | 12.7 | 15.3 | +2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Dylan SampsonRB CLE | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.4) | 5.0 | 0.9 | −4.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Kyle MonangaiRB CHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected −0.7) | 12.0 | 8.8 | −3.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Jacory Croskey-MerrittRB WAS | Fade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.4) | 9.8 | 3.0 | −6.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Harold Fannin Jr.TE CLE | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 8.7 | 8.4 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Omarion HamptonRB LAC | Boost (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected +0.4) | 13.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Cam SkatteboRB NYG | Boost (Missed tackles vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 12.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Bhayshul TutenRB JAX | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.4) | 4.0 | 2.0 | −2.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | RJ HarveyRB DEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.5) | 8.8 | 3.8 | −5.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Quinshon JudkinsRB CLE | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.9) | 13.1 | 10.5 | −2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Derrick HenryRB BAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs MIA, expected +0.7) | 18.7 | 13.1 | −5.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Christian McCaffreyRB SF | Fade (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected −1.0) | 22.8 | 34.3 | +11.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Aaron JonesRB MIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.5) | 8.3 | 11.8 | +3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Austin EkelerRB WAS | Boost (Missed tackles vs SEA, expected +0.4) | 10.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Joe MixonRB HOU | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.5) | 11.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Alvin KamaraRB NO | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −1.3) | 11.9 | 0.7 | −11.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Jamaal WilliamsRB NO | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.4) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Gus EdwardsRB LAC | Boost (Missed tackles vs TEN, expected +0.3) | 4.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Nick ChubbRB HOU | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 8.0 | 3.4 | −4.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | DJ MooreWR CHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.8) | 15.1 | 23.0 | +7.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Justice HillRB BAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs MIA, expected +0.3) | 8.1 | 3.5 | −4.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Olamide ZaccheausWR CHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.4) | 10.6 | 17.8 | +7.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Tony PollardRB TEN | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAC, expected −0.4) | 10.4 | 7.8 | −2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Travis HomerRB CHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.7) | 5.4 | 0.0 | −5.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | David MontgomeryRB DET | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −0.4) | 11.7 | 11.0 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Patrick TaylorRB SF | Fade (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected −0.4) | 3.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Juwan JohnsonTE NO | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 8.4 | 12.1 | +3.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Rico DowdleRB CAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs GB, expected −0.5) | 7.2 | 28.1 | +20.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | J.K. DobbinsRB DEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.9) | 11.7 | 6.9 | −4.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse