Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB myth · RB myth · WR myth · TE myth

Short week: every call

Teams on four or fewer days of rest (Thursday after Sunday) score fewer fantasy points than projected.

2024 backtest

241–151–41

61.5% vs 61.4% baseline

Win rate 61.5% (95% 56.6%–66.2%) vs baseline 61.4%

2025 backtest

225–151–39

59.8% vs 61.4% baseline

Win rate 59.8% (95% 54.8%–64.7%) vs baseline 61.4%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

30–29–9

50.8% vs 61.3% baseline

Win rate 50.8% (95% 38.4%–63.2%) vs baseline 61.3%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
WR211–119–2163.9%63.7%
TE104–73–3358.8%60.9%
RB122–71–2163.2%61.8%
QB29–39–542.6%50.4%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
flag241–151–4161.5%61.4%
0.25–0.5214–130–3562.2%62.4%
0.5–111–21–434.4%50.4%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQBRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Short week calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2025 W13Chris BrooksRB GBFade (Short week vs DET, expected +0.0)3.32.9−0.4pushBacktest ·
2025 W13Hunter LuepkeRB DALFade (Short week vs KC, expected +0.0)1.90.0−1.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Emanuel WilsonRB GBFade (Short week vs DET, expected +0.0)10.31.4−8.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Jacob SaylorsRB DETFade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.0)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Jahmyr GibbsRB DETFade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.0)23.911.6−12.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Kendall MiltonRB CINFade (Short week vs BAL, expected +0.0)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Carson SteeleRB KCFade (Short week vs DAL, expected +0.0)3.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Sione VakiRB DETFade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.0)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Rasheen AliRB BALFade (Short week vs CIN, expected +0.0)1.71.7+0.0pushBacktest ·
2025 W13Brashard SmithRB KCFade (Short week vs DAL, expected +0.0)5.80.0−5.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Jaydon BlueRB DALFade (Short week vs KC, expected +0.0)2.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Dare OgunbowaleRB HOUFade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.0)1.40.0−1.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W12Joe MixonRB HOUFade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.0)9.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Nick ChubbRB HOUFade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.0)6.02.5−3.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W12Ty JohnsonRB BUFFade (Short week vs HOU, expected +0.0)4.48.2+3.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W12Jakob JohnsonRB HOUFade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.0)0.60.0−0.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W12J.J. TaylorRB HOUFade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.0)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Reggie GilliamRB BUFFade (Short week vs HOU, expected +0.0)0.51.2+0.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W12James CookRB BUFFade (Short week vs HOU, expected +0.0)17.621.9+4.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W12British BrooksRB HOUFade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.0)0.70.0−0.7voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Ray DavisRB BUFFade (Short week vs HOU, expected +0.0)3.16.0+2.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W12Woody MarksRB HOUFade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.0)8.57.9−0.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Andrew BeckRB NYJFade (Short week vs NE, expected +0.0)0.90.0−0.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W11D'Ernest JohnsonRB NEFade (Short week vs NYJ, expected +0.0)3.00.6−2.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W11JaMycal HastyRB NEFade (Short week vs NYJ, expected +0.0)3.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Antonio GibsonRB NEFade (Short week vs NYJ, expected +0.0)7.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Kene NwangwuRB NYJFade (Short week vs NE, expected +0.0)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Khalil HerbertRB NYJFade (Short week vs NE, expected +0.0)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Breece HallRB NYJFade (Short week vs NE, expected +0.0)12.48.4−4.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Terrell JenningsRB NEFade (Short week vs NYJ, expected +0.0)4.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Braelon AllenRB NYJFade (Short week vs NE, expected +0.0)2.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Isaiah DavisRB NYJFade (Short week vs NE, expected +0.0)4.71.1−3.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W11TreVeyon HendersonRB NEFade (Short week vs NYJ, expected +0.0)17.132.3+15.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W10Michael BurtonRB DENFade (Short week vs LV, expected +0.0)1.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Raheem MostertRB LVFade (Short week vs DEN, expected +0.0)2.42.5+0.1pushBacktest ·
2025 W10Alexander MattisonRB LVFade (Short week vs DEN, expected +0.0)5.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10J.K. DobbinsRB DENFade (Short week vs LV, expected +0.0)15.39.4−6.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Adam PrenticeRB DENFade (Short week vs LV, expected +0.0)1.02.3+1.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W10Tyler BadieRB DENFade (Short week vs LV, expected +0.0)3.00.0−3.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Sincere McCormickRB LVFade (Short week vs DEN, expected +0.0)3.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Zamir WhiteRB LVFade (Short week vs DEN, expected +0.0)2.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Jaleel McLaughlinRB DENFade (Short week vs LV, expected +0.0)4.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Chris CollierRB LVFade (Short week vs DEN, expected +0.0)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Dylan LaubeRB LVFade (Short week vs DEN, expected +0.0)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Blake WatsonRB DENFade (Short week vs LV, expected +0.0)2.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Ashton JeantyRB LVFade (Short week vs DEN, expected +0.0)12.715.3+2.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W10RJ HarveyRB DENFade (Short week vs LV, expected +0.0)8.83.8−5.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Derrick HenryRB BALFade (Short week vs MIA, expected +0.0)18.713.1−5.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Patrick RicardRB BALFade (Short week vs MIA, expected +0.0)1.30.0−1.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Jeff WilsonRB MIAFade (Short week vs BAL, expected +0.0)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Justice HillRB BALFade (Short week vs MIA, expected +0.0)8.13.5−4.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Alec IngoldRB MIAFade (Short week vs BAL, expected +0.0)2.30.0−2.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Keaton MitchellRB BALFade (Short week vs MIA, expected +0.0)2.62.8+0.2pushBacktest ·
2025 W9De'Von AchaneRB MIAFade (Short week vs BAL, expected +0.0)18.016.6−1.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Rasheen AliRB BALFade (Short week vs MIA, expected +0.0)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Jaylen WrightRB MIAFade (Short week vs BAL, expected +0.0)2.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Ollie Gordon IIRB MIAFade (Short week vs BAL, expected +0.0)3.71.9−1.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W8Aaron JonesRB MINFade (Short week vs LAC, expected +0.0)8.45.0−3.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W8Gus EdwardsRB LACFade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.0)4.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Trayveon WilliamsRB LACFade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.0)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Najee HarrisRB LACFade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.0)5.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Ty ChandlerRB MINFade (Short week vs LAC, expected +0.0)2.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Jordan MasonRB MINFade (Short week vs LAC, expected +0.0)14.31.6−12.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W8Zavier ScottRB MINFade (Short week vs LAC, expected +0.0)4.74.4−0.3pushBacktest ·
2025 W8Scott MatlockRB LACFade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.0)0.60.0−0.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W8Kimani VidalRB LACFade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.0)10.819.7+8.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W8Omarion HamptonRB LACFade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.0)15.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Cordarrelle PattersonRB PITFade (Short week vs CIN, expected +0.0)2.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Samaje PerineRB CINFade (Short week vs PIT, expected +0.0)3.73.1−0.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W7Jonathan WardRB PITFade (Short week vs CIN, expected +0.0)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Zack MossRB CINFade (Short week vs PIT, expected +0.0)6.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Kenny GainwellRB PITFade (Short week vs CIN, expected +0.0)11.33.5−7.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W7Trey SermonRB PITFade (Short week vs CIN, expected +0.0)2.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Jaylen WarrenRB PITFade (Short week vs CIN, expected +0.0)15.419.8+4.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W7Connor HeywardRB PITFade (Short week vs CIN, expected +0.0)1.40.0−1.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W7Aaron ShampklinRB PITFade (Short week vs CIN, expected +0.0)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Chase BrownRB CINFade (Short week vs PIT, expected +0.0)14.012.0−2.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W7Kendall MiltonRB CINFade (Short week vs PIT, expected +0.0)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Kaleb JohnsonRB PITFade (Short week vs CIN, expected +0.0)2.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Tahj BrooksRB CINFade (Short week vs PIT, expected +0.0)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Saquon BarkleyRB PHIFade (Short week vs NYG, expected +0.0)17.28.7−8.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W6Khari BlasingameRB PHIFade (Short week vs NYG, expected +0.0)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Devin SingletaryRB NYGFade (Short week vs PHI, expected +0.0)3.21.0−2.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W6AJ DillonRB PHIFade (Short week vs NYG, expected +0.0)1.72.0+0.3pushBacktest ·
2025 W6Tyrion Davis-PriceRB PHIFade (Short week vs NYG, expected +0.0)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Eric GrayRB NYGFade (Short week vs PHI, expected +0.0)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Ben VanSumerenRB PHIFade (Short week vs NYG, expected +0.0)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Tank BigsbyRB PHIFade (Short week vs NYG, expected +0.0)5.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Dante MillerRB NYGFade (Short week vs PHI, expected +0.0)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Tyrone Tracy Jr.RB NYGFade (Short week vs PHI, expected +0.0)7.40.6−6.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W6Will ShipleyRB PHIFade (Short week vs NYG, expected +0.0)2.60.0−2.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W6Cam SkatteboRB NYGFade (Short week vs PHI, expected +0.0)13.331.0+17.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Kyle JuszczykRB SFFade (Short week vs LAR, expected +0.0)3.15.0+1.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Christian McCaffreyRB SFFade (Short week vs LAR, expected +0.0)21.627.9+6.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Patrick TaylorRB SFFade (Short week vs LAR, expected +0.0)5.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Ke'Shawn VaughnRB SFFade (Short week vs LAR, expected +0.0)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Ronnie RiversRB LARFade (Short week vs SF, expected +0.0)6.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Brian RobinsonRB SFFade (Short week vs LAR, expected +0.0)3.51.2−2.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W5Kyren WilliamsRB LARFade (Short week vs SF, expected +0.0)18.831.1+12.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Isaac GuerendoRB SFFade (Short week vs LAR, expected +0.0)3.8––voidBacktest ·

NewerPage 2 of 5 · 442 callsOlder

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse