Matchup edge · QB myth · RB myth · WR myth · TE myth
Short week: every call
Teams on four or fewer days of rest (Thursday after Sunday) score fewer fantasy points than projected.
2024 backtest
241–151–41
61.5% vs 61.4% baseline
2025 backtest
225–151–39
59.8% vs 61.4% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
30–29–9
50.8% vs 61.3% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 211–119–21 | 63.9% | 63.7% |
| TE | 104–73–33 | 58.8% | 60.9% |
| RB | 122–71–21 | 63.2% | 61.8% |
| QB | 29–39–5 | 42.6% | 50.4% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 241–151–41 | 61.5% | 61.4% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 214–130–35 | 62.2% | 62.4% |
| 0.5–1 | 11–21–4 | 34.4% | 50.4% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W5 | Cody SchraderRB LAR | Fade (Short week vs SF, expected +0.0) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Blake CorumRB LAR | Fade (Short week vs SF, expected +0.0) | 4.8 | 1.3 | −3.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | James ConnerRB ARI | Fade (Short week vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 12.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Myles GaskinRB SEA | Fade (Short week vs ARI, expected +0.0) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | D'Ernest JohnsonRB ARI | Fade (Short week vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Tony JonesRB ARI | Fade (Short week vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Michael CarterRB ARI | Fade (Short week vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 10.6 | 0.1 | −10.5 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB SEA | Fade (Short week vs ARI, expected +0.0) | 12.7 | 12.0 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Brady RussellRB SEA | Fade (Short week vs ARI, expected +0.0) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Kenny McIntoshRB SEA | Fade (Short week vs ARI, expected +0.0) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Emari DemercadoRB ARI | Fade (Short week vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 2.9 | 10.1 | +7.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Zach CharbonnetRB SEA | Fade (Short week vs ARI, expected +0.0) | 9.0 | 12.4 | +3.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | George HolaniRB SEA | Fade (Short week vs ARI, expected +0.0) | 4.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Trey BensonRB ARI | Fade (Short week vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 6.9 | 10.4 | +3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Jacardia WrightRB SEA | Fade (Short week vs ARI, expected +0.0) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Robbie OuztsRB SEA | Fade (Short week vs ARI, expected +0.0) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Jeff WilsonRB MIA | Fade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.0) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Alec IngoldRB MIA | Fade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.0) | 3.0 | 0.0 | −3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Ty JohnsonRB BUF | Fade (Short week vs MIA, expected +0.0) | 6.3 | 3.1 | −3.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Reggie GilliamRB BUF | Fade (Short week vs MIA, expected +0.0) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | James CookRB BUF | Fade (Short week vs MIA, expected +0.0) | 19.7 | 20.8 | +1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Fade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.0) | 16.7 | 16.1 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Jaylen WrightRB MIA | Fade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.0) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Ray DavisRB BUF | Fade (Short week vs MIA, expected +0.0) | 5.9 | 0.0 | −5.9 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Ollie Gordon IIRB MIA | Fade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.0) | 2.6 | 9.8 | +7.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Austin EkelerRB WAS | Fade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.0) | 11.0 | 4.4 | −6.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Jeremy McNicholsRB WAS | Fade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.0) | 2.7 | 0.0 | −2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Josh JacobsRB GB | Fade (Short week vs WAS, expected +0.0) | 16.4 | 14.4 | −2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB WAS | Fade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.0) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Chris BrooksRB GB | Fade (Short week vs WAS, expected +0.0) | 4.7 | 5.7 | +1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Emanuel WilsonRB GB | Fade (Short week vs WAS, expected +0.0) | 4.0 | 0.0 | −4.0 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | MarShawn LloydRB GB | Fade (Short week vs WAS, expected +0.0) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Jacory Croskey-MerrittRB WAS | Fade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.0) | 6.4 | 1.7 | −4.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Cordarrelle PattersonRB PIT | Fade (Short week vs KC) | 3.3 | 0.2 | −3.1 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jerick McKinnonRB KC | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Melvin GordonRB BAL | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Derrick HenryRB BAL | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 20.0 | 24.5 | +4.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Patrick RicardRB BAL | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 1.3 | 0.0 | −1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Samaje PerineRB KC | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 3.2 | 4.9 | +1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Dare OgunbowaleRB HOU | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 3.1 | 2.8 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Joe MixonRB HOU | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 14.6 | 5.9 | −8.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Kareem HuntRB KC | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 11.0 | 8.0 | −3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Andrew BeckRB HOU | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jonathan WardRB PIT | Fade (Short week vs KC) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | J.J. TaylorRB HOU | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | La'Mical PerineRB KC | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | D'Andre SwiftRB CHI | Fade (Short week vs SEA) | 12.3 | 12.1 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Darrynton EvansRB CHI | Fade (Short week vs SEA) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Najee HarrisRB PIT | Fade (Short week vs KC) | 10.9 | 10.1 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Isiah PachecoRB KC | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 8.0 | 1.8 | −6.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jaylen WarrenRB PIT | Fade (Short week vs KC) | 12.0 | 16.2 | +4.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Dameon PierceRB HOU | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 1.5 | 1.3 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Connor HeywardRB PIT | Fade (Short week vs KC) | 1.2 | 1.8 | +0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Aaron ShampklinRB PIT | Fade (Short week vs KC) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Keaton MitchellRB BAL | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 2.5 | 5.8 | +3.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Kenny McIntoshRB SEA | Fade (Short week vs CHI) | 5.8 | 4.6 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Roschon JohnsonRB CHI | Fade (Short week vs SEA) | 4.3 | 0.5 | −3.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Zach CharbonnetRB SEA | Fade (Short week vs CHI) | 15.9 | 10.6 | −5.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | George HolaniRB SEA | Fade (Short week vs CHI) | 2.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Carson SteeleRB KC | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | British BrooksRB HOU | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Rasheen AliRB BAL | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 2.4 | -0.3 | −2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Michael BurtonRB DEN | Fade (Short week vs LAC) | 1.3 | 10.9 | +9.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Gus EdwardsRB LAC | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 6.1 | 20.1 | +14.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | J.K. DobbinsRB LAC | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 12.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Javonte WilliamsRB DEN | Fade (Short week vs LAC) | 12.5 | 12.3 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Tyler BadieRB DEN | Fade (Short week vs LAC) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Hassan HaskinsRB LAC | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 1.2 | 11.9 | +10.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Isaiah SpillerRB LAC | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Scott MatlockRB LAC | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Audric EstiméRB DEN | Fade (Short week vs LAC) | 3.6 | 10.8 | +7.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Kimani VidalRB LAC | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 6.4 | 2.4 | −4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Blake WatsonRB DEN | Fade (Short week vs LAC) | 1.2 | 3.3 | +2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Kyle JuszczykRB SF | Fade (Short week vs LAR) | 4.0 | 0.0 | −4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Christian McCaffreyRB SF | Fade (Short week vs LAR) | 18.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Royce FreemanRB LAR | Fade (Short week vs SF) | 4.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Patrick TaylorRB SF | Fade (Short week vs LAR) | 3.7 | 0.0 | −3.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Ke'Shawn VaughnRB SF | Fade (Short week vs LAR) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Elijah MitchellRB SF | Fade (Short week vs LAR) | 3.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jordan MasonRB SF | Fade (Short week vs LAR) | 8.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Ronnie RiversRB LAR | Fade (Short week vs SF) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Fade (Short week vs SF) | 16.4 | 13.2 | −3.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Zach EvansRB LAR | Fade (Short week vs SF) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Isaac GuerendoRB SF | Fade (Short week vs LAR) | 4.9 | 11.5 | +6.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Blake CorumRB LAR | Fade (Short week vs SF) | 3.2 | 4.0 | +0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Raheem MostertRB MIA | Fade (Short week vs GB) | 5.5 | 5.4 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Ezekiel ElliottRB DAL | Fade (Short week vs NYG) | 5.7 | 0.4 | −5.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Kenyan DrakeRB GB | Fade (Short week vs MIA) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Matt BreidaRB NYG | Fade (Short week vs DAL) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Dalvin CookRB DAL | Fade (Short week vs NYG) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jeff WilsonRB MIA | Fade (Short week vs GB) | 2.3 | 0.0 | −2.3 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jason CabindaRB DET | Fade (Short week vs CHI) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Alec IngoldRB MIA | Fade (Short week vs GB) | 2.4 | 3.5 | +1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Devin SingletaryRB NYG | Fade (Short week vs DAL) | 6.1 | 2.3 | −3.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Craig ReynoldsRB DET | Fade (Short week vs CHI) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Travis HomerRB CHI | Fade (Short week vs DET) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | David MontgomeryRB DET | Fade (Short week vs CHI) | 12.8 | 15.4 | +2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Josh JacobsRB GB | Fade (Short week vs MIA) | 18.8 | 21.7 | +2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jakob JohnsonRB NYG | Fade (Short week vs DAL) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | James RobinsonRB GB | Fade (Short week vs MIA) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse