Matchup edge · QB myth · RB myth · WR myth · TE myth
Short week: every call
Teams on four or fewer days of rest (Thursday after Sunday) score fewer fantasy points than projected.
2024 backtest
241–151–41
61.5% vs 61.4% baseline
2025 backtest
225–151–39
59.8% vs 61.4% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
30–29–9
50.8% vs 61.3% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 211–119–21 | 63.9% | 63.7% |
| TE | 104–73–33 | 58.8% | 60.9% |
| RB | 122–71–21 | 63.2% | 61.8% |
| QB | 29–39–5 | 42.6% | 50.4% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 241–151–41 | 61.5% | 61.4% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 214–130–35 | 62.2% | 62.4% |
| 0.5–1 | 11–21–4 | 34.4% | 50.4% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W4 | Elijah HigginsTE ARI | Fade (Short week vs SEA, expected +0.2) | 2.8 | 0.0 | −2.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Xavier WeaverWR ARI | Fade (Short week vs SEA, expected −0.3) | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Tory HortonWR SEA | Fade (Short week vs ARI, expected −0.3) | 6.9 | 2.0 | −4.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Josh AllenQB BUF | Fade (Short week vs MIA, expected +0.5) | 24.9 | 23.0 | −1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Alec IngoldRB MIA | Fade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.0) | 3.0 | 0.0 | −3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Ty JohnsonRB BUF | Fade (Short week vs MIA, expected +0.0) | 6.3 | 3.1 | −3.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Dawson KnoxTE BUF | Fade (Short week vs MIA, expected +0.2) | 5.4 | 0.0 | −5.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Nick Westbrook-IkhineWR MIA | Fade (Short week vs BUF, expected −0.3) | 5.0 | 0.0 | −5.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Reggie GilliamRB BUF | Fade (Short week vs MIA, expected +0.0) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Dee EskridgeWR MIA | Fade (Short week vs BUF, expected −0.3) | 2.3 | 0.0 | −2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Josh PalmerWR BUF | Fade (Short week vs MIA, expected −0.3) | 8.8 | 1.5 | −7.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Tanner ConnerTE MIA | Fade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.2) | 3.0 | 2.3 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Julian HillTE MIA | Fade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.2) | 2.4 | 1.4 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Fade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.0) | 16.7 | 16.1 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Keon ColemanWR BUF | Fade (Short week vs MIA, expected −0.3) | 12.1 | 5.0 | −7.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Noah BrownWR WAS | Fade (Short week vs GB, expected −0.3) | 7.6 | 1.9 | −5.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Austin EkelerRB WAS | Fade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.0) | 11.0 | 4.4 | −6.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Jeremy McNicholsRB WAS | Fade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.0) | 2.7 | 0.0 | −2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Terry McLaurinWR WAS | Fade (Short week vs GB, expected −0.3) | 11.9 | 9.8 | −2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Josh JacobsRB GB | Fade (Short week vs WAS, expected +0.0) | 16.4 | 14.4 | −2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | John BatesTE WAS | Fade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.2) | 1.3 | 0.0 | −1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | John FitzPatrickTE GB | Fade (Short week vs WAS, expected +0.2) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Jaylin LaneWR WAS | Fade (Short week vs GB, expected −0.3) | 2.6 | 1.2 | −1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Jacory Croskey-MerrittRB WAS | Fade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.0) | 6.4 | 1.7 | −4.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Matthew GoldenWR GB | Fade (Short week vs WAS, expected −0.3) | 3.0 | 1.5 | −1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Keenan AllenWR CHI | Fade (Short week vs SEA) | 13.8 | 7.5 | −6.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | DeAndre HopkinsWR KC | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 8.5 | 2.7 | −5.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Geno SmithQB SEA | Fade (Short week vs CHI) | 16.4 | 8.3 | −8.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | MyCole PruittTE PIT | Fade (Short week vs KC) | 1.9 | 0.0 | −1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Tyler LockettWR SEA | Fade (Short week vs CHI) | 7.5 | 5.0 | −2.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Patrick RicardRB BAL | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 1.3 | 0.0 | −1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Pharaoh BrownTE SEA | Fade (Short week vs CHI) | 1.4 | -0.6 | −2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Mike WilliamsWR PIT | Fade (Short week vs KC) | 3.8 | 0.0 | −3.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Gerald EverettTE CHI | Fade (Short week vs SEA) | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Joe MixonRB HOU | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 14.6 | 5.9 | −8.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Kareem HuntRB KC | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 11.0 | 8.0 | −3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Dalton SchultzTE HOU | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 8.3 | 4.1 | −4.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | DJ MooreWR CHI | Fade (Short week vs SEA) | 14.2 | 12.2 | −2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Scott MillerWR PIT | Fade (Short week vs KC) | 2.3 | 0.0 | −2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | DK MetcalfWR SEA | Fade (Short week vs CHI) | 13.6 | 7.2 | −6.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Collin JohnsonWR CHI | Fade (Short week vs SEA) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Cole KmetTE CHI | Fade (Short week vs SEA) | 6.2 | 0.0 | −6.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Van JeffersonWR PIT | Fade (Short week vs KC) | 6.6 | 0.0 | −6.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Rashod BatemanWR BAL | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 13.1 | 2.2 | −10.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Nico CollinsWR HOU | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 15.4 | 8.9 | −6.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Tylan WallaceWR BAL | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 2.4 | 1.2 | −1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Noah GrayTE KC | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 4.9 | 1.6 | −3.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Najee HarrisRB PIT | Fade (Short week vs KC) | 10.9 | 10.1 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Dareke YoungWR SEA | Fade (Short week vs CHI) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Isiah PachecoRB KC | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 8.0 | 1.8 | −6.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | George PickensWR PIT | Fade (Short week vs KC) | 14.0 | 8.0 | −6.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Peyton HendershotTE KC | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Calvin Austin IIIWR PIT | Fade (Short week vs KC) | 8.7 | 7.1 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Isaiah LikelyTE BAL | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 8.9 | 7.9 | −1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Nikko RemigioWR KC | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR SEA | Fade (Short week vs CHI) | 16.0 | 6.2 | −9.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Darnell WashingtonTE PIT | Fade (Short week vs KC) | 2.8 | 1.8 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Kenny McIntoshRB SEA | Fade (Short week vs CHI) | 5.8 | 4.6 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jared WayneWR HOU | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jake BoboWR SEA | Fade (Short week vs CHI) | 1.7 | 0.0 | −1.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Roschon JohnsonRB CHI | Fade (Short week vs SEA) | 4.3 | 0.5 | −3.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Zay FlowersWR BAL | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 17.2 | 5.1 | −12.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | C.J. StroudQB HOU | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 15.0 | 6.1 | −8.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Zach CharbonnetRB SEA | Fade (Short week vs CHI) | 15.9 | 10.6 | −5.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Cade StoverTE HOU | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 2.4 | 1.1 | −1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Devontez WalkerWR BAL | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | AJ BarnerTE SEA | Fade (Short week vs CHI) | 3.9 | 0.0 | −3.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Rasheen AliRB BAL | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 2.4 | -0.3 | −2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Caleb WilliamsQB CHI | Fade (Short week vs SEA) | 15.9 | 6.6 | −9.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Rome OdunzeWR CHI | Fade (Short week vs SEA) | 10.6 | 2.5 | −8.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Courtland SuttonWR DEN | Fade (Short week vs LAC) | 15.4 | 10.0 | −5.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | DJ CharkWR LAC | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 2.4 | 0.0 | −2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Hayden HurstTE LAC | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 3.3 | 1.8 | −1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Lil'Jordan HumphreyWR DEN | Fade (Short week vs LAC) | 4.9 | 0.0 | −4.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Adam TrautmanTE DEN | Fade (Short week vs LAC) | 3.5 | 1.5 | −2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Quentin JohnstonWR LAC | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 11.3 | 4.8 | −6.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Kimani VidalRB LAC | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 6.4 | 2.4 | −4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Troy FranklinWR DEN | Fade (Short week vs LAC) | 6.0 | 4.5 | −1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Ladd McConkeyWR LAC | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 16.2 | 14.7 | −1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Matthew StaffordQB LAR | Fade (Short week vs SF) | 14.5 | 8.2 | −6.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Kyle JuszczykRB SF | Fade (Short week vs LAR) | 4.0 | 0.0 | −4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Chris ConleyWR SF | Fade (Short week vs LAR) | 1.4 | 0.0 | −1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Demarcus RobinsonWR LAR | Fade (Short week vs SF) | 6.4 | 0.0 | −6.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | George KittleTE SF | Fade (Short week vs LAR) | 12.8 | 10.1 | −2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Eric SaubertTE SF | Fade (Short week vs LAR) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Cooper KuppWR LAR | Fade (Short week vs SF) | 14.4 | 0.0 | −14.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Deebo Samuel Sr.WR SF | Fade (Short week vs LAR) | 10.8 | 4.9 | −5.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Patrick TaylorRB SF | Fade (Short week vs LAR) | 3.7 | 0.0 | −3.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jauan JenningsWR SF | Fade (Short week vs LAR) | 14.0 | 5.1 | −8.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Tyler JohnsonWR LAR | Fade (Short week vs SF) | 3.5 | 0.0 | −3.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Tutu AtwellWR LAR | Fade (Short week vs SF) | 5.7 | 1.6 | −4.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Brock PurdyQB SF | Fade (Short week vs LAR) | 18.0 | 4.0 | −14.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Fade (Short week vs SF) | 16.4 | 13.2 | −3.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Davis AllenTE LAR | Fade (Short week vs SF) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jacob CowingWR SF | Fade (Short week vs LAR) | 1.3 | 0.0 | −1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jordan WhittingtonWR LAR | Fade (Short week vs SF) | 2.3 | 0.0 | −2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Ricky PearsallWR SF | Fade (Short week vs LAR) | 4.8 | 2.6 | −2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Odell Beckham Jr.WR MIA | Fade (Short week vs GB) | 3.5 | 1.9 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Allen RobinsonWR DET | Fade (Short week vs CHI) | 1.9 | 0.0 | −1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | DeAndre CarterWR CHI | Fade (Short week vs DET) | 1.9 | 0.0 | −1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse