Matchup edge · QB myth · RB myth · WR myth · TE myth
Short week: every call
Teams on four or fewer days of rest (Thursday after Sunday) score fewer fantasy points than projected.
2024 backtest
241–151–41
61.5% vs 61.4% baseline
2025 backtest
225–151–39
59.8% vs 61.4% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
30–29–9
50.8% vs 61.3% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 211–119–21 | 63.9% | 63.7% |
| TE | 104–73–33 | 58.8% | 60.9% |
| RB | 122–71–21 | 63.2% | 61.8% |
| QB | 29–39–5 | 42.6% | 50.4% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 241–151–41 | 61.5% | 61.4% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 214–130–35 | 62.2% | 62.4% |
| 0.5–1 | 11–21–4 | 34.4% | 50.4% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W4 | Zach PascalWR ARI | Fade (Short week vs SEA, expected −0.3) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Cooper KuppWR SEA | Fade (Short week vs ARI, expected −0.3) | 11.6 | 6.6 | −5.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Steven SimsWR ARI | Fade (Short week vs SEA, expected −0.3) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Greg DortchWR ARI | Fade (Short week vs SEA, expected −0.3) | 3.8 | 7.9 | +4.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Cody WhiteWR SEA | Fade (Short week vs ARI, expected −0.3) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Simi FehokoWR ARI | Fade (Short week vs SEA, expected −0.3) | 5.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Dareke YoungWR SEA | Fade (Short week vs ARI, expected −0.3) | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR SEA | Fade (Short week vs ARI, expected −0.3) | 18.6 | 13.0 | −5.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Michael WilsonWR ARI | Fade (Short week vs SEA, expected −0.3) | 7.5 | 4.5 | −3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Jake BoboWR SEA | Fade (Short week vs ARI, expected −0.3) | 1.3 | 2.7 | +1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Xavier WeaverWR ARI | Fade (Short week vs SEA, expected −0.3) | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Marvin Harrison Jr.WR ARI | Fade (Short week vs SEA, expected −0.3) | 12.9 | 18.6 | +5.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Tory HortonWR SEA | Fade (Short week vs ARI, expected −0.3) | 6.9 | 2.0 | −4.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Odell Beckham Jr.WR MIA | Fade (Short week vs BUF, expected −0.3) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Amari CooperWR BUF | Fade (Short week vs MIA, expected −0.3) | 6.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Tyreek HillWR MIA | Fade (Short week vs BUF, expected −0.3) | 15.6 | 15.9 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Curtis SamuelWR BUF | Fade (Short week vs MIA, expected −0.3) | 5.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Cedrick Wilson Jr.WR MIA | Fade (Short week vs BUF, expected −0.3) | 3.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Mecole HardmanWR BUF | Fade (Short week vs MIA, expected −0.3) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Nick Westbrook-IkhineWR MIA | Fade (Short week vs BUF, expected −0.3) | 5.0 | 0.0 | −5.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Gabe DavisWR BUF | Fade (Short week vs MIA, expected −0.3) | 10.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Jaylen WaddleWR MIA | Fade (Short week vs BUF, expected −0.3) | 10.3 | 14.9 | +4.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Dee EskridgeWR MIA | Fade (Short week vs BUF, expected −0.3) | 2.3 | 0.0 | −2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Elijah MooreWR BUF | Fade (Short week vs MIA, expected −0.3) | 4.6 | 6.1 | +1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Josh PalmerWR BUF | Fade (Short week vs MIA, expected −0.3) | 8.8 | 1.5 | −7.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Khalil ShakirWR BUF | Fade (Short week vs MIA, expected −0.3) | 10.8 | 14.5 | +3.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Jalen VirgilWR BUF | Fade (Short week vs MIA, expected −0.3) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Erik EzukanmaWR MIA | Fade (Short week vs BUF, expected −0.3) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Grant DuBoseWR MIA | Fade (Short week vs BUF, expected −0.3) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Tyrell ShaversWR BUF | Fade (Short week vs MIA, expected −0.3) | 1.7 | 4.4 | +2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Malik WashingtonWR MIA | Fade (Short week vs BUF, expected −0.3) | 6.3 | 6.2 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Keon ColemanWR BUF | Fade (Short week vs MIA, expected −0.3) | 12.1 | 5.0 | −7.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Jamison CrowderWR WAS | Fade (Short week vs GB, expected −0.3) | 3.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Chris MooreWR WAS | Fade (Short week vs GB, expected −0.3) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Robbie ChosenWR WAS | Fade (Short week vs GB, expected −0.3) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Noah BrownWR WAS | Fade (Short week vs GB, expected −0.3) | 7.6 | 1.9 | −5.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | River CracraftWR WAS | Fade (Short week vs GB, expected −0.3) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Terry McLaurinWR WAS | Fade (Short week vs GB, expected −0.3) | 11.9 | 9.8 | −2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Deebo Samuel Sr.WR WAS | Fade (Short week vs GB, expected −0.3) | 12.3 | 17.4 | +5.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | K.J. OsbornWR WAS | Fade (Short week vs GB, expected −0.3) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Tay MartinWR WAS | Fade (Short week vs GB, expected −0.3) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Treylon BurksWR WAS | Fade (Short week vs GB, expected −0.3) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Romeo DoubsWR GB | Fade (Short week vs WAS, expected −0.3) | 11.3 | 11.8 | +0.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Christian WatsonWR GB | Fade (Short week vs WAS, expected −0.3) | 8.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Dontayvion WicksWR GB | Fade (Short week vs WAS, expected −0.3) | 6.6 | 8.4 | +1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Malik HeathWR GB | Fade (Short week vs WAS, expected −0.3) | 2.0 | 4.7 | +2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Jayden ReedWR GB | Fade (Short week vs WAS, expected −0.3) | 9.4 | 0.0 | −9.4 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Luke McCaffreyWR WAS | Fade (Short week vs GB, expected −0.3) | 1.6 | 4.9 | +3.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Savion WilliamsWR GB | Fade (Short week vs WAS, expected −0.3) | 2.1 | 2.4 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Jaylin LaneWR WAS | Fade (Short week vs GB, expected −0.3) | 2.6 | 1.2 | −1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Matthew GoldenWR GB | Fade (Short week vs WAS, expected −0.3) | 3.0 | 1.5 | −1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Keenan AllenWR CHI | Fade (Short week vs SEA) | 13.8 | 7.5 | −6.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Robert WoodsWR HOU | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 3.7 | 4.1 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | DeAndre HopkinsWR KC | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 8.5 | 2.7 | −5.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Stefon DiggsWR HOU | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 11.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | DeAndre CarterWR CHI | Fade (Short week vs SEA) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Tyler LockettWR SEA | Fade (Short week vs CHI) | 7.5 | 5.0 | −2.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Mike WilliamsWR PIT | Fade (Short week vs KC) | 3.8 | 0.0 | −3.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | JuJu Smith-SchusterWR KC | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 2.8 | 3.8 | +1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Richie JamesWR KC | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Anthony MillerWR BAL | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 1.4 | 2.6 | +1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Justin WatsonWR KC | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 3.4 | 14.0 | +10.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | DJ MooreWR CHI | Fade (Short week vs SEA) | 14.2 | 12.2 | −2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Steven SimsWR HOU | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Mecole HardmanWR KC | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Deonte HartyWR BAL | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Diontae JohnsonWR HOU | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 6.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Scott MillerWR PIT | Fade (Short week vs KC) | 2.3 | 0.0 | −2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | DK MetcalfWR SEA | Fade (Short week vs CHI) | 13.6 | 7.2 | −6.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Marquise BrownWR KC | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 7.1 | 8.6 | +1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Miles BoykinWR PIT | Fade (Short week vs KC) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Cody WhiteWR SEA | Fade (Short week vs CHI) | 3.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Collin JohnsonWR CHI | Fade (Short week vs SEA) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Van JeffersonWR PIT | Fade (Short week vs KC) | 6.6 | 0.0 | −6.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Rashod BatemanWR BAL | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 13.1 | 2.2 | −10.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Nico CollinsWR HOU | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 15.4 | 8.9 | −6.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Tylan WallaceWR BAL | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 2.4 | 1.2 | −1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Dareke YoungWR SEA | Fade (Short week vs CHI) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Justyn RossWR KC | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | George PickensWR PIT | Fade (Short week vs KC) | 14.0 | 8.0 | −6.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Montrell WashingtonWR KC | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Brandon JohnsonWR PIT | Fade (Short week vs KC) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Johnny Johnson IIIWR HOU | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | John Metchie IIIWR HOU | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 4.3 | 9.8 | +5.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Calvin Austin IIIWR PIT | Fade (Short week vs KC) | 8.7 | 7.1 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Skyy MooreWR KC | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Nikko RemigioWR KC | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR SEA | Fade (Short week vs CHI) | 16.0 | 6.2 | −9.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Xavier HutchinsonWR HOU | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 2.2 | 4.1 | +1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jared WayneWR HOU | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jake BoboWR SEA | Fade (Short week vs CHI) | 1.7 | 0.0 | −1.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Malik CunninghamWR BAL | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Tyler ScottWR CHI | Fade (Short week vs SEA) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Tank DellWR HOU | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 10.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Zay FlowersWR BAL | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 17.2 | 5.1 | −12.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Rashee RiceWR KC | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 10.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Roman WilsonWR PIT | Fade (Short week vs KC) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Devontez WalkerWR BAL | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Xavier WorthyWR KC | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 10.6 | 22.9 | +12.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Rome OdunzeWR CHI | Fade (Short week vs SEA) | 10.6 | 2.5 | −8.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse