Matchup edge · QB C · WR C · TE myth
Wind 15+ mph: every call
Outdoor games with wind of 15 mph or more cost passers and receivers points.
2024 backtest
134–87–21
60.6% vs 61.2% baseline
2025 backtest
206–90–24
69.6% vs 61.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
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first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
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no graded calls
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 194–90–18 | 68.3% | 63.7% |
| QB | 38–25–3 | 60.3% | 50.4% |
| TE | 108–62–24 | 63.5% | 60.9% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 134–87–21 | 60.6% | 61.2% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 119–42–11 | 73.9% | 63.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 64–34–12 | 65.3% | 60.9% |
| 1+ | 23–14–1 | 62.2% | 50.4% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W13 | Isaiah BondWR CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs SF, expected −0.4) | 3.8 | 3.7 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Aaron RodgersQB PIT | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CIN, expected −1.1) | 18.0 | 9.4 | −8.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Joe FlaccoQB CIN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PIT, expected −1.1) | 16.5 | 9.9 | −6.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Russell WilsonQB NYG | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs GB, expected −1.1) | 11.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | DeAndre HopkinsWR BAL | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE, expected −0.4) | 5.4 | 2.1 | −3.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Brandin CooksWR BUF | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs TB, expected −0.4) | 5.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Mike EvansWR TB | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF, expected −0.4) | 9.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Allen RobinsonWR DET | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI, expected −0.4) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Chris ManhertzTE NYG | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs GB, expected +0.5) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Amari CooperWR BUF | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs TB, expected −0.4) | 5.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Nelson AgholorWR BAL | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE, expected −0.4) | 5.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | MyCole PruittTE PIT | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CIN, expected +0.5) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | C.J. UzomahTE PHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs DET, expected +0.5) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Geoff SwaimTE CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BAL, expected +0.5) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Sterling ShepardWR TB | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF, expected −0.4) | 6.9 | 10.1 | +3.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Kalif RaymondWR DET | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI, expected −0.4) | 4.6 | 0.0 | −4.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Jared GoffQB DET | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI, expected −1.1) | 15.0 | 12.1 | −2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Curtis SamuelWR BUF | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs TB, expected −0.4) | 3.4 | 3.9 | +0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Anthony FirkserTE DET | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI, expected +0.5) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Mike WilliamsWR PIT | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CIN, expected −0.4) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Jonnu SmithTE PIT | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CIN, expected +0.5) | 7.9 | 0.0 | −7.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | David NjokuTE CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BAL, expected +0.5) | 6.2 | 1.7 | −4.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Ross DwelleyTE DET | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI, expected +0.5) | 1.5 | 0.0 | −1.5 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR PIT | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CIN, expected −0.4) | 4.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Dallas GoedertTE PHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs DET, expected +0.5) | 10.7 | 4.4 | −6.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Anthony MillerWR BAL | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE, expected −0.4) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Jordan AkinsTE CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BAL, expected +0.5) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Ray-Ray McCloudWR NYG | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs GB, expected −0.4) | 3.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Tanner HudsonTE CIN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PIT, expected +0.5) | 3.5 | 5.2 | +1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Mark AndrewsTE BAL | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE, expected +0.5) | 10.1 | 15.7 | +5.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Lamar JacksonQB BAL | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE, expected −1.1) | 17.4 | 4.7 | −12.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Mike GesickiTE CIN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PIT, expected +0.5) | 5.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Baker MayfieldQB TB | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF, expected −1.1) | 14.4 | 16.8 | +2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Josh AllenQB BUF | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs TB, expected −1.1) | 20.3 | 42.7 | +22.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Mecole HardmanWR BUF | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs TB, expected −0.4) | 2.2 | 0.0 | −2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Scott MillerWR PIT | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CIN, expected −0.4) | 1.3 | 0.0 | −1.3 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Trenton IrwinWR CIN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PIT, expected −0.4) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Tom KennedyWR DET | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI, expected −0.4) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Drew SampleTE CIN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PIT, expected +0.5) | 2.7 | 0.0 | −2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | DK MetcalfWR PIT | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CIN, expected −0.4) | 13.9 | 9.9 | −4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Noah FantTE CIN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PIT, expected +0.5) | 6.1 | 6.6 | +0.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Gunner OlszewskiWR NYG | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs GB, expected −0.4) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | A.J. BrownWR PHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs DET, expected −0.4) | 13.3 | 11.9 | −1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Dawson KnoxTE BUF | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs TB, expected +0.5) | 6.7 | 3.3 | −3.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Isaiah HodginsWR NYG | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs GB, expected −0.4) | 2.2 | 10.7 | +8.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Gabe DavisWR BUF | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs TB, expected −0.4) | 10.1 | 7.0 | −3.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Marquez CallawayWR TB | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF, expected −0.4) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Jordan LoveQB GB | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYG, expected −1.1) | 16.8 | 17.7 | +0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Jalen HurtsQB PHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs DET, expected −1.1) | 19.0 | 14.5 | −4.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Jerry JeudyWR CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BAL, expected −0.4) | 9.3 | 5.1 | −4.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Tee HigginsWR CIN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PIT, expected −0.4) | 13.7 | 15.3 | +1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Shane ZylstraTE DET | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI, expected +0.5) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Tylan WallaceWR BAL | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE, expected −0.4) | 1.7 | 0.0 | −1.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Ihmir Smith-MarsetteWR NYG | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs GB, expected −0.4) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Zach DavidsonTE NYG | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs GB, expected +0.5) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Brock WrightTE DET | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI, expected +0.5) | 4.7 | 2.8 | −1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Ben SkowronekWR PIT | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CIN, expected −0.4) | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Kylen GransonTE PHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs DET, expected +0.5) | 0.6 | 1.4 | +0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Pat FreiermuthTE PIT | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CIN, expected +0.5) | 7.1 | 2.9 | −4.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Ja'Marr ChaseWR CIN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PIT, expected −0.4) | 22.3 | 6.0 | −16.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | DeVonta SmithWR PHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs DET, expected −0.4) | 16.0 | 1.8 | −14.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Kadarius ToneyWR CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BAL, expected −0.4) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DET | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI, expected −0.4) | 20.9 | 6.2 | −14.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Elijah MooreWR BUF | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs TB, expected −0.4) | 3.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Josh PalmerWR BUF | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs TB, expected −0.4) | 6.1 | 3.7 | −2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Grant CalcaterraTE PHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs DET, expected +0.5) | 2.4 | 0.0 | −2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Bo MeltonWR GB | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYG, expected −0.4) | 3.0 | 1.7 | −1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Britain CoveyWR PHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs DET, expected −0.4) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Jameson WilliamsWR DET | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PHI, expected −0.4) | 12.6 | 19.7 | +7.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Khalil ShakirWR BUF | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs TB, expected −0.4) | 11.8 | 0.7 | −11.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Mike WoodsWR CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BAL, expected −0.4) | 5.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | John FitzPatrickTE GB | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYG, expected +0.5) | 0.9 | 1.5 | +0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Ko KieftTE TB | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF, expected +0.5) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Kaden DavisWR CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BAL, expected −0.4) | 1.2 | 0.0 | −1.2 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Jalen VirgilWR BUF | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs TB, expected −0.4) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Kendric PryorWR CIN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PIT, expected −0.4) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Jahan DotsonWR PHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs DET, expected −0.4) | 4.0 | 6.3 | +2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Romeo DoubsWR GB | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYG, expected −0.4) | 12.6 | 9.3 | −3.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Calvin Austin IIIWR PIT | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CIN, expected −0.4) | 10.2 | 1.5 | −8.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Isaiah LikelyTE BAL | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE, expected +0.5) | 5.4 | 3.5 | −1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Charlie KolarTE BAL | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE, expected +0.5) | 2.4 | 0.0 | −2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Daniel BellingerTE NYG | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs GB, expected +0.5) | 3.6 | 0.0 | −3.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Wan'Dale RobinsonWR NYG | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs GB, expected −0.4) | 16.0 | 7.6 | −8.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Christian WatsonWR GB | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYG, expected −0.4) | 9.4 | 20.6 | +11.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Cade OttonTE TB | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF, expected +0.5) | 8.3 | 4.8 | −3.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Dontayvion WicksWR GB | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYG, expected −0.4) | 7.1 | 1.9 | −5.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Malik HeathWR GB | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYG, expected −0.4) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Xavier GipsonWR PHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs DET, expected −0.4) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | E.J. JenkinsTE PHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs DET, expected +0.5) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Darnell WashingtonTE PIT | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CIN, expected +0.5) | 4.9 | 10.7 | +5.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Cameron LatuTE PHI | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs DET, expected +0.5) | 0.1 | 0.0 | −0.1 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Charlie JonesWR CIN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PIT, expected −0.4) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Josh WhyleTE GB | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NYG, expected +0.5) | 1.2 | 7.2 | +6.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Andrei IosivasWR CIN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PIT, expected −0.4) | 6.9 | 5.0 | −1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Tyrell ShaversWR BUF | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs TB, expected −0.4) | 2.4 | 19.0 | +16.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Blake WhiteheartTE CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BAL, expected +0.5) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Rakim JarrettWR TB | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF, expected −0.4) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Ryan MillerWR TB | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BUF, expected −0.4) | 1.3 | 0.0 | −1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Mitchell TinsleyWR CIN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs PIT, expected −0.4) | 1.5 | 0.0 | −1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Jalin HyattWR NYG | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs GB, expected −0.4) | 3.1 | 3.8 | +0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse