Seattle Kraken · Defenseman · #6Adam Larsson Shots on Goal: Last 10 Games & Hit Rate
Adam Larsson went over 1.5 shots on goal in 3 of his last 10 decided games (30%) and in 3 of 10 this season (30%).
Last posted line: 1.5 shots on goal (Oct 17)
- Market chance (no vig)
- 39%
- Best over / under
- +135 BetMGM / -200 BetMGM
- Our projection (locked)
- 33%(1.19 SOG)
- Over value at lock price
- −22.6%
Consensus of 1 US book. The best over and under together carry a 9.2% margin. Our projection was locked about an hour before puck drop and is graded in the ledger; value uses the best prices at the lock. Value is our projection's expected return per unit on the over (unders are not shown: ice-time misses make most of our under edges model error). It is unproven: our model has not beaten the books on shots on goal over a meaningful sample.
Hit rate over 1.5 shots on goal
| Games | GP | Over | Hit rate | Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 | 5 | 1 | 20% | 1.00 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 3 | 30% | 1.10 |
| This season | 10 | 3 | 30% | 1.10 |
| 2025-26 | 82 | 27 | 33% | 1.29 |
Last 10 games
- 1underOct 20 vs DET
- 1underOct 17 @ FLA
- 2overOct 15 @ TBL
- 1underOct 13 @ PHI
- 0underOct 11 @ WSH
- 2overOct 9 @ DET
- 2overOct 6 vs VGK
- 1underOct 4 vs CGY
- 0underOct 3 @ EDM
- 1underOct 1 @ CGY
Home, road
| Games | GP | Over | Hit rate | Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 44 | 15 | 34% | 1.27 |
| Road | 48 | 15 | 31% | 1.27 |
2026-27 and 2025-26 combined. A few games against one team is noise.
At other lines
| Line | Last 10 | This season | How often (this season) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 1.5 | 30% | 30% | 0: 2 · 1: 5 · 2: 3 · 3+: 0 |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 0% |
Our model against the market
Across 1,094 graded shots on goal lines since Oct 12, our projection and the market have been about even (log loss 0.6884 vs 0.6870; lower is better). Flat bets on our 5%+ over edges: 54 bets, −8.3%.
On Adam Larsson's own 1 graded shots on goal line, the over hit 0 times; our projection averaged 33% for the over and the market 39%. That is far too few lines to say anything about one player.
| Date | Line | Model | Market | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17 | 1.5 | 33% | 39% | 1 | under |
Every modelled line is locked about an hour before puck drop and never edited (live tests).
Do hit rates beat the market?
We tested 2,905 shots on goal lines from 196 random 2025-26 games (odds 15 minutes before puck drop, every player with 10+ earlier games), fitting on games before January 1 and scoring the rest. The last-10 hit rate on its own scored 0.723 against the market's 0.675 (log loss, lower is better). Adding it to the market price changed the score by −0.0005: nothing useful.
Books already price streaks: players who went over in 8+ of their last 10 were priced at 56% on average and went over 60% of the time (n 202). Betting the over in that spot at the best price returned +9.2% on 41 bets (95% range −13.7% to +32.1%). No hit-rate rule we tried cleared zero in both halves of the season with a range above zero.
Do shots on goal hit rates predict the next game?
A hit rate is how often Adam Larsson cleared a line in a window of games: over 1.5 shots on goal in his last 5, 10 or 20 games and this season. Pushes (exactly on a whole-number line) are left out. The table also shows the same line at home, on the road and against tonight's opponent.
Recent hit rates are a weak signal. In our 2,905-line test on shots on goal props from 2025-26, the last-10 hit rate alone scored worse than the market's no-vig price on the second half of the season (log loss 0.723 vs 0.675), and adding it to the market changed the score by −0.0005. Players who went over in 8 or more of their last 10 games were already priced higher by the books.
Read hit rates as context for the role a player has now, not as a bet signal. The model and market comparison below shows the price after the margin and how our projections have done against the books.
Frequently asked questions
How often does Adam Larsson go over 1.5 shots on goal?
Adam Larsson went over 1.5 shots on goal in 3 of his last 10 games and 3 of 10 this season (30%).
Has the Edgehalla model beaten the market on shots on goal?
Across 1,094 graded shots on goal lines since Oct 12, our projection and the market have been about even (log loss 0.6884 vs 0.6870; lower is better). Flat bets on our 5%+ over edges: 54 bets, −8.3%.
Do last-10 hit rates beat the sportsbooks?
Not in our test: on 2,905 shots on goal lines from 2025-26, the last-10 hit rate scored worse than the market's no-vig price on held-out games (log loss 0.723 vs 0.675).