Edmonton Oilers · Defenseman · #5Connor Murphy Shots on Goal: Last 10 Games & Hit Rate
Connor Murphy went over 1.5 shots on goal in 1 of his last 5 decided games (20%) and in 2 of 9 this season (22%).
No shots on goal line posted for Murphy yet
Books have not posted a shots on goal line for him this season. Hit rates below use 1.5, the usual line for defencemen.
Hit rate over 1.5 shots on goal
| Games | GP | Over | Hit rate | Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 | 5 | 1 | 20% | 0.60 |
| This season | 9 | 2 | 22% | 0.67 |
| 2025-26 | 80 | 20 | 25% | 0.88 |
Last 9 games
- 0underOct 20 vs MIN
- 2overOct 17 @ UTA
- 1underOct 15 vs UTA
- 0underOct 13 @ LAK
- 0underOct 10 @ SJS
- 0underOct 7 @ ANA
- 0underOct 3 vs SEA
- 1underOct 1 @ VAN
- 2overSep 29 vs VAN
Home, road
| Games | GP | Over | Hit rate | Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 46 | 14 | 30% | 0.87 |
| Road | 43 | 8 | 19% | 0.84 |
2026-27 and 2025-26 combined. A few games against one team is noise.
At other lines
| Line | Last 9 | This season | How often (this season) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 44% | 44% | |
| Over 1.5 | 22% | 22% | 0: 5 · 1: 2 · 2: 2 · 3+: 0 |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 0% |
Our model against the market
Across 1,094 graded shots on goal lines since Oct 12, our projection and the market have been about even (log loss 0.6884 vs 0.6870; lower is better). Flat bets on our 5%+ over edges: 54 bets, −8.3%.
None of Connor Murphy's shots on goal lines has been graded in our ledger yet.
Every modelled line is locked about an hour before puck drop and never edited (live tests).
Do hit rates beat the market?
We tested 2,905 shots on goal lines from 196 random 2025-26 games (odds 15 minutes before puck drop, every player with 10+ earlier games), fitting on games before January 1 and scoring the rest. The last-10 hit rate on its own scored 0.723 against the market's 0.675 (log loss, lower is better). Adding it to the market price changed the score by −0.0005: nothing useful.
Books already price streaks: players who went over in 8+ of their last 10 were priced at 56% on average and went over 60% of the time (n 202). Betting the over in that spot at the best price returned +9.2% on 41 bets (95% range −13.7% to +32.1%). No hit-rate rule we tried cleared zero in both halves of the season with a range above zero.
Do shots on goal hit rates predict the next game?
A hit rate is how often Connor Murphy cleared a line in a window of games: over 1.5 shots on goal in his last 5, 10 or 20 games and this season. Pushes (exactly on a whole-number line) are left out. The table also shows the same line at home, on the road and against tonight's opponent.
Recent hit rates are a weak signal. In our 2,905-line test on shots on goal props from 2025-26, the last-10 hit rate alone scored worse than the market's no-vig price on the second half of the season (log loss 0.723 vs 0.675), and adding it to the market changed the score by −0.0005. Players who went over in 8 or more of their last 10 games were already priced higher by the books.
Read hit rates as context for the role a player has now, not as a bet signal. The model and market comparison below shows the price after the margin and how our projections have done against the books.
Frequently asked questions
How often does Connor Murphy go over 1.5 shots on goal?
Connor Murphy went over 1.5 shots on goal in 1 of his last 5 games and 2 of 9 this season (22%).
Has the Edgehalla model beaten the market on shots on goal?
Across 1,094 graded shots on goal lines since Oct 12, our projection and the market have been about even (log loss 0.6884 vs 0.6870; lower is better). Flat bets on our 5%+ over edges: 54 bets, −8.3%.
Do last-10 hit rates beat the sportsbooks?
Not in our test: on 2,905 shots on goal lines from 2025-26, the last-10 hit rate scored worse than the market's no-vig price on held-out games (log loss 0.723 vs 0.675).