Montreal Canadiens · Defenseman · #8Mike Matheson Points: Last 10 Games & Hit Rate
Mike Matheson went over 0.5 points in 1 of his last 5 decided games (20%) and in 1 of 5 this season (20%).
Last posted line: 0.5 points (Oct 10)
- Market chance (no vig)
- 37%
- Best over / under
- +158 BetOnline / -205 DraftKings
- Our projection
- —
- Over value at best price
- —
Consensus of 2 US books. The best over and under together carry a 6.0% margin. Lines refresh during the day; the model compares on game days and once a line is locked.
Hit rate over 0.5 points
| Games | GP | Over | Hit rate | Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 | 5 | 1 | 20% | 0.20 |
| This season | 5 | 1 | 20% | 0.20 |
| 2025-26 | 78 | 30 | 38% | 0.47 |
Last 5 games
- 0underOct 10 vs DET
- 0underOct 8 vs NSH
- 0underOct 6 vs CAR
- 0underOct 3 @ PIT
- 1overSep 29 @ TOR
Home, road
| Games | GP | Over | Hit rate | Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 42 | 16 | 38% | 0.45 |
| Road | 41 | 15 | 37% | 0.46 |
2026-27 and 2025-26 combined. A few games against one team is noise.
At other lines
| Line | Last 5 | This season | How often (this season) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 20% | 20% | 0: 4 · 1: 1 · 2+: 0 |
| Over 1.5 | 0% | 0% |
Our model against the market
Across 1,436 graded points lines since Oct 12, the market has been more accurate than our projection (log loss 0.6531 vs 0.6425; lower is better). Flat bets on our 5%+ over edges: 222 bets, −15.9%.
None of Mike Matheson's points lines has been graded in our ledger yet.
Every modelled line is locked about an hour before puck drop and never edited (live tests).
Do hit rates beat the market?
We tested 3,217 points lines from 196 random 2025-26 games (odds 15 minutes before puck drop, every player with 10+ earlier games), fitting on games before January 1 and scoring the rest. The last-10 hit rate on its own scored 0.730 against the market's 0.670 (log loss, lower is better). Adding it to the market price changed the score by +0.0024: nothing useful.
Books already price streaks: players who went over in 8+ of their last 10 were priced at 58% on average and went over 54% of the time (n 208). Betting the over in that spot at the best price returned −11.8% on 59 bets (95% range −31.2% to +7.6%). No hit-rate rule we tried cleared zero in both halves of the season with a range above zero.
Do points hit rates predict the next game?
A hit rate is how often Mike Matheson cleared a line in a window of games: over 0.5 points in his last 5, 10 or 20 games and this season. Pushes (exactly on a whole-number line) are left out. The table also shows the same line at home, on the road and against tonight's opponent.
Recent hit rates are a weak signal. In our 3,217-line test on points props from 2025-26, the last-10 hit rate alone scored worse than the market's no-vig price on the second half of the season (log loss 0.730 vs 0.670), and adding it to the market changed the score by +0.0024. Players who went over in 8 or more of their last 10 games were already priced higher by the books.
Read hit rates as context for the role a player has now, not as a bet signal. The model and market comparison below shows the price after the margin and how our projections have done against the books.
Frequently asked questions
How often does Mike Matheson go over 0.5 points?
Mike Matheson went over 0.5 points in 1 of his last 5 games and 1 of 5 this season (20%).
Has the Edgehalla model beaten the market on points?
Across 1,436 graded points lines since Oct 12, the market has been more accurate than our projection (log loss 0.6531 vs 0.6425; lower is better). Flat bets on our 5%+ over edges: 222 bets, −15.9%.
Do last-10 hit rates beat the sportsbooks?
Not in our test: on 3,217 points lines from 2025-26, the last-10 hit rate scored worse than the market's no-vig price on held-out games (log loss 0.730 vs 0.670).