Ice-time spike · Oct 17, 2026
Dmitri Simashev breakout comps
Dmitri Simashev (D, Utah Mammoth, 21): TOI 14:36 → 16:43 (+2:07). Before the jump he averaged 0.25 points a game over 8 games with 0.27 expected goals per 60.
8 comps scored a median 0.25 P/GP over the next 20 games (−0.05 vs before the jump); 6 of 8 kept the role.
Since the jump: 2 games, 0.00 P/GP, 16:43 TOI. Comp pool: 2018-19, 2019-20, 2020-21, 2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25, 2025-26.
Comps: points per game over the next 20, vs before the jump
The comps
| Comp | Jump | Age | P/GP before | Next 20: P/GP | Kept role | Similarity | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden StrubleD · MTL · Nov 26, 2024 | Ice-time spike: TOI 13:44 → 15:44 (+2:00) | 23 | 13:44 | 1% | 0.23 | 0.20 | 0.20 (+0.00) | Yes | 86 |
| Olen ZellwegerD · ANA · Jan 10, 2026 | Ice-time spike: TOI 16:30 → 19:04 (+2:34) | 22 | 16:30 | 4% | 0.27 | 0.20 | 0.15 (−0.05) | No | 81 |
| Albert JohanssonD · DET · Oct 23, 2025 | Ice-time spike: TOI 14:41 → 16:34 (+1:53) | 24 | 14:41 | 1% | 0.19 | 0.29 | 0.05 (−0.24) | Yes | 76 |
| David JiricekD · CBJ · Dec 7, 2023 | Ice-time spike: TOI 13:57 → 16:03 (+2:06) | 20 | 13:57 | 0% | 0.15 | 0.20 | 0.25 (+0.05) | Yes | 84 |
| Louis CrevierD · CHI · Nov 12, 2025 | Ice-time spike: TOI 14:15 → 16:04 (+1:49) | 24 | 14:15 | 0% | 0.12 | 0.40 | 0.30 (−0.10) | Yes | 74 |
| Ian MooreD · ANA · Dec 27, 2025 | Ice-time spike: TOI 15:07 → 18:29 (+3:22) | 24 | 15:07 | 0% | 0.30 | 0.30 | 0.25 (−0.05) | No | 74 |
| Matthew RobertsonD · NYR · Dec 7, 2025 | Ice-time spike: TOI 15:43 → 17:49 (+2:06) | 24 | 15:43 | 0% | 0.25 | 0.10 | 0.35 (+0.25) | Yes | 73 |
| Tom WillanderD · VAN · Dec 20, 2025 | Ice-time spike: TOI 13:30 → 16:12 (+2:42), PP share 9% → 18% | 20 | 13:30 | 9% | 0.15 | 0.40 | 0.35 (−0.05) | Yes | 73 |
FAQ
Is Dmitri Simashev's new role a breakout?
Dmitri Simashev (ice-time spike on Oct 17, 2026: TOI 14:36 → 16:43 (+2:07)) compares with 8 historical jumps. 8 comps scored a median 0.25 P/GP over the next 20 games (−0.05 vs before the jump); 6 of 8 kept the role.
Who are Dmitri Simashev's closest comparables?
Jayden Struble (2024-25, 0.20 P/GP over the next 20 games); Olen Zellweger (2025-26, 0.15 P/GP over the next 20 games); Albert Johansson (2025-26, 0.05 P/GP over the next 20 games)
How the comps are built
- A jump is a promotion from our deployment tracker (PP1, a line move up, or an ice-time spike) or a sustained change we detect ourselves: TOI up 2:30 or more across 3 straight games, or power-play share up 20 points.
- The pre-jump profile covers the 10 games before: TOI, power-play share, expected goals per 60, shot diet (xG per unblocked attempt), points per game and age.
- Comps are the 8 nearest historical jumps at the same position group on those features plus the size of the jump, one per player, among jumps with a full 20-game outcome.
- We report what the comps did over the next 20 games (points per game and the change from before), and whether they kept at least half of the jump in games 11 to 20.