PP Opportunity Forecast
NHL power play opportunities for Monday, Oct 5
How many power plays each team should get Monday, Oct 5, who plays on PP1 and PP2, and how many power-play minutes each of them projects for. Built from every team's penalty-drawing and penalty-taking rates and NHL shift data.
Most power plays Monday, Oct 5
Most PP minutes Monday, Oct 5
| Player | Unit | Share | Exp. PP min |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mikko RantanenDAL | PP1 | 92% | 5:03 |
| Jason RobertsonDAL | PP1 | 86% | 4:45 |
| Wyatt JohnstonDAL | PP1 | 84% | 4:38 |
| Nikita KucherovTBL | PP1 | 78% | 4:19 |
| Jake GuentzelTBL | PP1 | 75% | 4:11 |
| David PastrnakBOS | PP1 | 81% | 4:08 |
| Miro HeiskanenDAL | PP1 | 73% | 4:05 |
| Brayden PointTBL | PP1 | 72% | 3:59 |
| Brandon HagelTBL | PP1 | 68% | 3:47 |
| Macklin CelebriniSJS | PP1 | 75% | 3:39 |
| Morgan GeekieBOS | PP1 | 71% | 3:39 |
| Drake BathersonOTT | PP1 | 64% | 3:37 |
| Tim StützleOTT | PP1 | 63% | 3:34 |
| Will SmithSJS | PP1 | 70% | 3:26 |
| Alexander WennbergSJS | PP1 | 69% | 3:23 |
| Mark ScheifeleWPG | PP1 | 76% | 3:21 |
| Matt DucheneDAL | PP1 | 59% | 3:19 |
| Kyle ConnorWPG | PP1 | 75% | 3:18 |
| Pavel ZachaBOS | PP1 | 63% | 3:16 |
| Trevor ZegrasPHI | PP1 | 64% | 3:15 |
Every game Monday, Oct 5
PHI @ TBL
PHI3.15PP opps (range 1–5) · ~5:29 PP time
draws 3.1/gm · TBL shorthanded 3.3/gmPHI expected power-play minutes by player PP1 Trevor ZegrasC 64% 3:15 Travis KonecnyR 61% 3:06 Tyson FoersterR 59% 3:00 Jamie DrysdaleD 58% 2:56 Matvei MichkovR 45% 2:20 PP2 Christian DvorakC 33% 1:48 Owen TippettR 18% 1:05 Cam YorkD 16% 1:00 Alex BumpL 13% 0:50 TBL3.49PP opps (range 2–6) · ~6:06 PP time
draws 3.2/gm · PHI shorthanded 3.2/gm · homeTBL expected power-play minutes by player PP1 Nikita KucherovR 78% 4:19 Jake GuentzelC 75% 4:11 Brayden PointC 72% 3:59 Brandon HagelL 68% 3:47 John CarlsonD 27% 1:41 PP2 Anthony CirelliC 18% 1:12 Gage GoncalvesC 17% 1:10 Charle-Edouard D'AstousD 15% 1:04 Conor GeekieC 10% 0:48 Pontus HolmbergR 10% 0:47 Referee crew not posted yet (the NHL lists it close to puck drop).
OTT @ BOS
OTT3.52PP opps (range 2–6) · ~6:06 PP time
draws 3.3/gm · BOS shorthanded 3.5/gmOTT expected power-play minutes by player PP1 Drake BathersonR 64% 3:37 Tim StützleC 63% 3:34 Dylan CozensC 45% 2:35 Jake SandersonD 20% 1:20 PP2 Shane PintoC 52% 2:57 Claude GirouxR 51% 2:55 Thomas ChabotD 39% 2:18 Fabian ZetterlundL 24% 1:32 Warren FoegeleL 14% 1:01 BOS3.21PP opps (range 1–5) · ~5:38 PP time
draws 3.1/gm · OTT shorthanded 3.1/gm · homeBOS expected power-play minutes by player PP1 David PastrnakR 81% 4:08 Morgan GeekieC 71% 3:39 Pavel ZachaC 63% 3:16 Elias LindholmC 49% 2:36 PP2 Hampus LindholmD 39% 2:06 JJ PeterkaR 31% 1:45 Fraser MintenC 29% 1:38 Casey MittelstadtC 28% 1:34 James HagensC 21% 1:16 Referee crew not posted yet (the NHL lists it close to puck drop).
WPG @ PIT
WPG2.95PP opps (range 1–5) · ~4:51 PP time
draws 3.1/gm · PIT shorthanded 3.1/gmWPG expected power-play minutes by player PP1 Mark ScheifeleC 76% 3:21 Kyle ConnorL 75% 3:18 Gabriel VilardiC 73% 3:14 Josh MorrisseyD 73% 3:14 PP2 Cole PerfettiC 39% 1:51 Brad LambertC 25% 1:14 Nino NiederreiterR 23% 1:09 Isak RosenR 18% 0:57 PIT3.17PP opps (range 1–5) · ~5:09 PP time
draws 3.1/gm · WPG shorthanded 3.0/gm · homePIT expected power-play minutes by player PP1 Rickard RakellR 67% 3:10 Sidney CrosbyC 66% 3:07 Erik KarlssonD 65% 3:04 Evgeni MalkinC 56% 2:40 Bryan RustR 39% 1:55 PP2 Tommy NovakC 40% 1:59 Egor ChinakhovR 38% 1:53 Kris LetangD 31% 1:37 Ben KindelC 31% 1:36 Referee crew not posted yet (the NHL lists it close to puck drop).
SJS @ DAL
SJS3.24PP opps (range 1–5) · ~5:23 PP time
draws 3.2/gm · DAL shorthanded 3.3/gmSJS expected power-play minutes by player PP1 Macklin CelebriniC 75% 3:39 Will SmithC 70% 3:26 Alexander WennbergC 69% 3:23 Luca CagnoniD 57% 2:50 Igor ChernyshovL 41% 2:08 PP2 Dmitry OrlovD 30% 1:38 Michael MisaC 23% 1:17 Kiefer SherwoodL 16% 0:59 DAL3.45PP opps (range 2–5) · ~6:06 PP time
draws 3.2/gm · SJS shorthanded 3.3/gm · homeDAL expected power-play minutes by player PP1 Mikko RantanenR 92% 5:03 Jason RobertsonL 86% 4:45 Wyatt JohnstonC 84% 4:38 Miro HeiskanenD 73% 4:05 Matt DucheneC 59% 3:19 PP2 Thomas HarleyD 26% 1:37 Justin HryckowianC 19% 1:15 Jamie BennL 13% 0:57 Tyler SeguinC 9% 0:45 Referee crew not posted yet (the NHL lists it close to puck drop).
Updated Oct 4, 10:25 AM ET · model pp-1.0.0
How the forecast works
- Expected PP opportunities = league rate × the team's rate of drawing penalties × the opponent's rate of taking them, with a small home-ice edge. Each rate blends this season's games with last season's rate (pulled halfway or more back to the league average), weighted like 80 games, so a hot October does not swing the forecast.
- Expected PP time = expected opportunities × the team's seconds per power play (about 99 seconds league-wide; shrunk toward the league).
- Each player's share of team PP time comes from the last 10 games with any power play (recent games count more), from NHL shift data, pulled 15% toward a typical share because power-play hot streaks cool off. PP1 and PP2 are the five-man units with the most power-play time together in the last five games.
- Player expected PP minutes = share × team expected PP time. Only players who dressed in one of the team's last three games are listed.
- Referee crews are shown when the NHL posts them, usually close to puck drop. They are not in the forecast unless the crew effect beats the no-crew model on seasons it was not fitted on (see the referee page).
Power-play chances are mostly luck game to game: the forecasts spread only about ±0.35 opportunities around the league average, and a single game swings by ±1.5. We tested the model the honest way: for each season from 2020-21 to 2025-26 we refit it on earlier seasons only and forecast every game. Against a league-average-plus-home-ice baseline it was slightly better per game in 5 of those 6 seasons and no better in 2025-26, where it matched the baseline. Over 10-game stretches it tracked each team's actual opportunities better in 6 of 6 seasons (correlation 0.36 → 0.45 on average). The range beside each forecast held about 9 in 10 games in those seasons. Player PP minutes were tested on 2024-25, a season the player constants were not tuned on: they were off by 62 seconds per game on average (a season-average guess: 65), and players projected for 3–4 minutes averaged 3:12 (the rare 4+ minute projections ran about half a minute high). Most of the miss is how many power plays the team actually got, which no one knows before the game. Use it for weekly PPP planning and close start/sit calls, not as a lock.
Data: NHL team power-play and penalty reports since 2017-18, NHL shift charts processed by our on-ice engine, and NHL game-day officials.
FAQ
Which NHL teams will get the most power plays tonight?
The table at the top ranks every team playing tonight by expected power-play opportunities: how often the team draws penalties, how often tonight's opponent takes them, and home ice. The range beside each number held about 9 in 10 games when we tested the model on past seasons.
How many power-play minutes will a player get tonight?
Expected PP minutes are the player's recent share of his team's power-play time multiplied by the team's expected PP time tonight. A first-unit forward usually gets 55–70% of his team's PP time; second-unit players get 25–45%.
Do referees change how many power plays there are?
Somewhat, and less than people think. We track every referee crew since 2017-18 and measure how many more or fewer power plays their games had than the two teams would normally produce. The NHL referees page shows each referee's effect with an interval. Whether it repeats from one season to the next is still being tested, so crews are not part of this forecast yet.
Why is the forecast close to 3 for most teams?
Because that is the truth about power plays: the league averages about 2.9 per team per game, and even the most- and least-penalized teams sit only about half an opportunity away from it. The value is in the small, persistent edges and in knowing exactly who is on PP1.
When does this page update?
Forecasts refresh several times a day for today and tomorrow, after each night's games are processed and again as referee crews are posted.