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Stack Finder: best line and PP1 stacks for Sunday, Mar 1

Every forward line and first power-play unit on the Sunday, Mar 1 slate, ranked by expected goals tonight against the opponent's defense, penalty kill and likely goalie. Top stack: SJS L1 (Sherwood–Smith–Celebrini) vs WPG.

Data updated:

Stacks with a player who is

Top 10 stacks

  1. #1SJSL1vs WPG0.70 xG

    Kiefer Sherwood55%, Will Smith94%, Macklin Celebrini100%

    Matchup factors →
  2. #2WPGL1vs SJS0.68 xG

    Mark Scheifele99%, Kyle Connor99%, Gabriel Vilardi74%

    Matchup factors →
  3. #3UTAPP1vs CHI0.66 xG

    Nick Schmaltz97%, Clayton Keller100%, Mikhail Sergachev98%, Barrett Hayton10%, Dylan Guenther99%

    Matchup factors →
  4. #4NYIL1vs FLA0.61 xG

    Ondrej Palat0.1%, Bo Horvat92%, Mathew Barzal81%

    Matchup factors →
  5. #5UTAL1vs CHI0.60 xG

    Nick Schmaltz97%, Lawson Crouse33%, Clayton Keller100%

    Matchup factors →
  6. #6PITL1vs VGK0.59 xG

    Evgeni Malkin85%, Tommy Novak37%, Egor Chinakhov44%

    Matchup factors →
  7. #7MINL1vs STL0.58 xG

    Mats Zuccarello41%, Ryan Hartman32%, Kirill Kaprizov98%

    Matchup factors →
  8. #8WPGPP1vs SJS0.57 xG

    Mark Scheifele99%, Kyle Connor99%, Logan Stanley27%, Gabriel Vilardi74%, Cole Perfetti80%

    Matchup factors →
  9. #9VGKL1vs PIT0.54 xG

    Mark Stone95%, Ivan Barbashev65%, Jack Eichel100%

    Matchup factors →
  10. #10MINPP1vs STL0.52 xG

    Mats Zuccarello41%, Joel Eriksson Ek78%, Kirill Kaprizov98%, Quinn Hughes100%, Matt Boldy100%

    Matchup factors →

By game

VGK @ PIT

FLA @ NYI

CHI @ UTA

WPG @ SJS

STL @ MIN

CGY @ ANA

How it works

  1. Lines and PP1 come from each team's last three games of shift data: the forward trio with the most 5-on-5 time together, and the power-play five with the most time together.
  2. Unit strength is expected goals for per 60 minutes, recent games plus the season, shrunk toward league average so a hot two-game sample does not dominate.
  3. Matchup: the opponent's 5-on-5 expected goals against per 60 (for lines) or its penalty-kill rate and shorthanded minutes (for PP1), relative to the league.
  4. Goalie: the likely opposing starter from our goalie start model, weighted by probability, with his save % shrunk toward league average; shot-class save % when available.
  5. Stack score = rate × minutes × P(unit intact) × matchup × goalie, in expected goals for tonight, so lines and power plays rank on one scale.

Methodology: How we detect lines · Expected goals · Goalie shot classes · Goalie start model

Frequently asked questions

What is a stack in fantasy hockey?

A stack is a group of teammates who play together, usually a forward line or the first power-play unit, so one goal pays several of your players at once. It is the main strategy in daily fantasy hockey.

How are stacks ranked?

Each unit gets an expected-goals number for tonight: how many chances it creates per 60 minutes (recent games plus season, shrunk toward league average), how many minutes it plays, how likely it is to stay together, how leaky the opponent is at 5-on-5 or shorthanded, and how good the likely opposing goalie is.

Where do the lines come from?

From the NHL shift charts of each team's last three games: the three forwards who share the most 5-on-5 ice time form a line, and the five skaters with the most power-play time together form PP1.

Why does it say "shot-based"?

While a season is being reprocessed with our expected-goals model, unit rates fall back to shots on goal times a league-average 0.075 xG per shot. The ranking logic is the same.