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Stack Finder: best line and PP1 stacks for Wednesday, Mar 4

Every forward line and first power-play unit on the Wednesday, Mar 4 slate, ranked by expected goals tonight against the opponent's defense, penalty kill and likely goalie. Top stack: CAR L1 (Hall–Stankoven–Blake) vs VAN.

Data updated:

Stacks with a player who is

Top 10 stacks

  1. #1CARL1vs VAN0.79 xG

    Taylor Hall42%, Logan Stankoven80%, Jackson Blake81%

    Matchup factors →
  2. #2NYIL1vs ANA0.74 xG

    Ondrej Palat0.1%, Bo Horvat92%, Mathew Barzal81%

    Matchup factors →
  3. #3CARL2vs VAN0.70 xG

    Sebastian Aho100%, Andrei Svechnikov98%, Seth Jarvis93%

    Matchup factors →
  4. #4ANAL1vs NYI0.58 xG

    Chris Kreider62%, Cutter Gauthier97%, Leo Carlsson95%

    Matchup factors →
  5. #5ANAPP1vs NYI0.54 xG

    Chris Kreider62%, Jackson LaCombe97%, Cutter Gauthier97%, Leo Carlsson95%, Beckett Sennecke95%

    Matchup factors →
  6. #6STLL1vs SEA0.53 xG

    Pavel Buchnevich31%, Jordan Kyrou69%, Jake Neighbours27%

    Matchup factors →
  7. #7NYIL2vs ANA0.51 xG

    Anders Lee30%, Jean-Gabriel Pageau11%, Simon Holmstrom15%

    Matchup factors →
  8. #8CARL3vs VAN0.51 xG

    Jordan Staal17%, Jordan Martinook4.3%, Nikolaj Ehlers89%

    Matchup factors →
  9. #9NJDL1vs TOR0.45 xG

    Timo Meier77%, Nico Hischier95%, Dawson Mercer22%

    Matchup factors →
  10. #10SEAL1vs STL0.43 xG

    Jordan Eberle45%, Jared McCann77%, Matty Beniers49%

    Matchup factors →

By game

VGK @ DET

TOR @ NJD

CAR @ VAN

NYI @ ANA

STL @ SEA

How it works

  1. Lines and PP1 come from each team's last three games of shift data: the forward trio with the most 5-on-5 time together, and the power-play five with the most time together.
  2. Unit strength is expected goals for per 60 minutes, recent games plus the season, shrunk toward league average so a hot two-game sample does not dominate.
  3. Matchup: the opponent's 5-on-5 expected goals against per 60 (for lines) or its penalty-kill rate and shorthanded minutes (for PP1), relative to the league.
  4. Goalie: the likely opposing starter from our goalie start model, weighted by probability, with his save % shrunk toward league average; shot-class save % when available.
  5. Stack score = rate × minutes × P(unit intact) × matchup × goalie, in expected goals for tonight, so lines and power plays rank on one scale.

Methodology: How we detect lines · Expected goals · Goalie shot classes · Goalie start model

Frequently asked questions

What is a stack in fantasy hockey?

A stack is a group of teammates who play together, usually a forward line or the first power-play unit, so one goal pays several of your players at once. It is the main strategy in daily fantasy hockey.

How are stacks ranked?

Each unit gets an expected-goals number for tonight: how many chances it creates per 60 minutes (recent games plus season, shrunk toward league average), how many minutes it plays, how likely it is to stay together, how leaky the opponent is at 5-on-5 or shorthanded, and how good the likely opposing goalie is.

Where do the lines come from?

From the NHL shift charts of each team's last three games: the three forwards who share the most 5-on-5 ice time form a line, and the five skaters with the most power-play time together form PP1.

Why does it say "shot-based"?

While a season is being reprocessed with our expected-goals model, unit rates fall back to shots on goal times a league-average 0.075 xG per shot. The ranking logic is the same.