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Stack Finder: best line and PP1 stacks for Thursday, Mar 5

Every forward line and first power-play unit on the Thursday, Mar 5 slate, ranked by expected goals tonight against the opponent's defense, penalty kill and likely goalie. Top stack: PIT L1 (Malkin–Novak–Chinakhov) vs BUF.

Data updated:

Stacks with a player who is

Top 10 stacks

  1. #1PITL1vs BUF0.68 xG

    Evgeni Malkin85%, Tommy Novak37%, Egor Chinakhov44%

    Matchup factors →
  2. #2PITPP1vs BUF0.66 xG

    Evgeni Malkin85%, Erik Karlsson95%, Bryan Rust83%, Rickard Rakell77%, Anthony Mantha38%

    Matchup factors →
  3. #3CBJL1vs FLA0.64 xG

    Mason Marchment41%, Kirill Marchenko98%, Adam Fantilli91%

    Matchup factors →
  4. #4LAKL1vs NYI0.59 xG

    Anze Kopitar0.4%, Adrian Kempe96%, Artemi Panarin97%

    Matchup factors →
  5. #5NYRL2vs TOR0.58 xG

    Mika Zibanejad98%, J.T. Miller90%, Gabe Perreault63%

    Matchup factors →
  6. #6BUFL1vs PIT0.56 xG

    Alex Tuch94%, Tage Thompson100%, Peyton Krebs16%

    Matchup factors →
  7. #7BUFL3vs PIT0.55 xG

    Jason Zucker22%, Ryan McLeod22%, Jack Quinn51%

    Matchup factors →
  8. #8NYIL1vs LAK0.54 xG

    Ondrej Palat0.1%, Bo Horvat92%, Mathew Barzal81%

    Matchup factors →
  9. #9WPGL1vs TBL0.53 xG

    Mark Scheifele99%, Kyle Connor99%, Gabriel Vilardi74%

    Matchup factors →
  10. #10OTTL3vs CGY0.52 xG

    Brady Tkachuk99%, Dylan Cozens85%, Ridly Greig15%

    Matchup factors →

By game

TOR @ NYR

UTA @ PHI

BUF @ PIT

FLA @ CBJ

BOS @ NSH

TBL @ WPG

OTT @ CGY

NYI @ LAK

How it works

  1. Lines and PP1 come from each team's last three games of shift data: the forward trio with the most 5-on-5 time together, and the power-play five with the most time together.
  2. Unit strength is expected goals for per 60 minutes, recent games plus the season, shrunk toward league average so a hot two-game sample does not dominate.
  3. Matchup: the opponent's 5-on-5 expected goals against per 60 (for lines) or its penalty-kill rate and shorthanded minutes (for PP1), relative to the league.
  4. Goalie: the likely opposing starter from our goalie start model, weighted by probability, with his save % shrunk toward league average; shot-class save % when available.
  5. Stack score = rate × minutes × P(unit intact) × matchup × goalie, in expected goals for tonight, so lines and power plays rank on one scale.

Methodology: How we detect lines · Expected goals · Goalie shot classes · Goalie start model

Frequently asked questions

What is a stack in fantasy hockey?

A stack is a group of teammates who play together, usually a forward line or the first power-play unit, so one goal pays several of your players at once. It is the main strategy in daily fantasy hockey.

How are stacks ranked?

Each unit gets an expected-goals number for tonight: how many chances it creates per 60 minutes (recent games plus season, shrunk toward league average), how many minutes it plays, how likely it is to stay together, how leaky the opponent is at 5-on-5 or shorthanded, and how good the likely opposing goalie is.

Where do the lines come from?

From the NHL shift charts of each team's last three games: the three forwards who share the most 5-on-5 ice time form a line, and the five skaters with the most power-play time together form PP1.

Why does it say "shot-based"?

While a season is being reprocessed with our expected-goals model, unit rates fall back to shots on goal times a league-average 0.075 xG per shot. The ranking logic is the same.