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Stack Finder: best line and PP1 stacks for Wednesday, Mar 11

Every forward line and first power-play unit on the Wednesday, Mar 11 slate, ranked by expected goals tonight against the opponent's defense, penalty kill and likely goalie. Top stack: PHI PP1 (Konecny–Tippett–Zegras–Drysdale–Michkov) vs WSH.

Data updated:

Stacks with a player who is

Top 10 stacks

  1. #1PHIPP1vs WSH0.60 xG

    Travis Konecny90%, Owen Tippett76%, Trevor Zegras82%, Jamie Drysdale51%, Matvei Michkov83%

    Matchup factors →
  2. #2OTTL3vs MTL0.54 xG

    Brady Tkachuk99%, Dylan Cozens89%, Ridly Greig15%

    Matchup factors →
  3. #3MTLL2vs OTT0.48 xG

    Nick Suzuki100%, Cole Caufield100%, Juraj Slafkovský98%

    Matchup factors →
  4. #4OTTL2vs MTL0.48 xG

    Claude Giroux32%, Drake Batherson97%, Tim Stützle100%

    Matchup factors →
  5. #5MTLL1vs OTT0.44 xG

    Jake Evans4.9%, Kirby Dach11%, Zachary Bolduc24%

    Matchup factors →
  6. #6MTLPP1vs OTT0.43 xG

    Nick Suzuki100%, Cole Caufield100%, Lane Hutson100%, Juraj Slafkovský98%, Ivan Demidov90%

    Matchup factors →
  7. #7OTTL1vs MTL0.43 xG

    Nick Cousins3.3%, Michael Amadio6.8%, Shane Pinto42%

    Matchup factors →
  8. #8WSHPP1vs PHI0.42 xG

    Alex Ovechkin95%, Tom Wilson95%, Dylan Strome82%, Jakob Chychrun99%, Ryan Leonard67%

    Matchup factors →
  9. #9PHIL2vs WSH0.41 xG

    Carl Grundstrom0.1%, Owen Tippett76%, Trevor Zegras82%

    Matchup factors →
  10. #10MTLL3vs OTT0.35 xG

    Alex Newhook25%, Oliver Kapanen28%, Ivan Demidov90%

    Matchup factors →

By game

MTL @ OTT

WSH @ PHI

How it works

  1. Lines and PP1 come from each team's last three games of shift data: the forward trio with the most 5-on-5 time together, and the power-play five with the most time together.
  2. Unit strength is expected goals for per 60 minutes, recent games plus the season, shrunk toward league average so a hot two-game sample does not dominate.
  3. Matchup: the opponent's 5-on-5 expected goals against per 60 (for lines) or its penalty-kill rate and shorthanded minutes (for PP1), relative to the league.
  4. Goalie: the likely opposing starter from our goalie start model, weighted by probability, with his save % shrunk toward league average; shot-class save % when available.
  5. Stack score = rate × minutes × P(unit intact) × matchup × goalie, in expected goals for tonight, so lines and power plays rank on one scale.

Methodology: How we detect lines · Expected goals · Goalie shot classes · Goalie start model

Frequently asked questions

What is a stack in fantasy hockey?

A stack is a group of teammates who play together, usually a forward line or the first power-play unit, so one goal pays several of your players at once. It is the main strategy in daily fantasy hockey.

How are stacks ranked?

Each unit gets an expected-goals number for tonight: how many chances it creates per 60 minutes (recent games plus season, shrunk toward league average), how many minutes it plays, how likely it is to stay together, how leaky the opponent is at 5-on-5 or shorthanded, and how good the likely opposing goalie is.

Where do the lines come from?

From the NHL shift charts of each team's last three games: the three forwards who share the most 5-on-5 ice time form a line, and the five skaters with the most power-play time together form PP1.

Why does it say "shot-based"?

While a season is being reprocessed with our expected-goals model, unit rates fall back to shots on goal times a league-average 0.075 xG per shot. The ranking logic is the same.