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Stack Finder: best line and PP1 stacks for Thursday, Mar 12

Every forward line and first power-play unit on the Thursday, Mar 12 slate, ranked by expected goals tonight against the opponent's defense, penalty kill and likely goalie. Top stack: BOS PP1 (Lindholm–Pastrnak–Zacha–McAvoy–Geekie) vs SJS.

Data updated:

Stacks with a player who is

Top 10 stacks

  1. #1BOSPP1vs SJS0.83 xG

    Elias Lindholm43%, David Pastrnak100%, Pavel Zacha73%, Charlie McAvoy95%, Morgan Geekie95%

    Matchup factors →
  2. #2UTAL1vs CHI0.68 xG

    Nick Schmaltz97%, Clayton Keller100%, Dylan Guenther99%

    Matchup factors →
  3. #3BUFL1vs WSH0.59 xG

    Jason Zucker22%, Ryan McLeod24%, Jack Quinn51%

    Matchup factors →
  4. #4STLL1vs CAR0.59 xG

    Robert Thomas89%, Dylan Holloway92%, Jimmy Snuggerud78%

    Matchup factors →
  5. #5VGKL1vs PIT0.56 xG

    Ivan Barbashev66%, Jack Eichel100%, Braeden Bowman15%

    Matchup factors →
  6. #6DALPP1vs EDM0.55 xG

    Jamie Benn20%, Matt Duchene58%, Jason Robertson100%, Miro Heiskanen100%, Wyatt Johnston100%

    Matchup factors →
  7. #7CARL1vs STL0.54 xG

    Taylor Hall43%, Logan Stankoven80%, Jackson Blake79%

    Matchup factors →
  8. #8MINL1vs PHI0.54 xG

    Mats Zuccarello46%, Ryan Hartman35%, Kirill Kaprizov98%

    Matchup factors →
  9. #9ANAL1vs TOR0.54 xG

    Chris Kreider62%, Cutter Gauthier97%, Leo Carlsson95%

    Matchup factors →
  10. #10NYRPP1vs WPG0.54 xG

    Vincent Trocheck87%, Mika Zibanejad98%, Adam Fox99%, Alexis Lafrenière88%, Gabe Perreault61%

    Matchup factors →

By game

SJS @ BOS

WSH @ BUF

ANA @ TOR

DET @ TBL

CBJ @ FLA

CGY @ NJD

STL @ CAR

EDM @ DAL

PHI @ MIN

NYR @ WPG

CHI @ UTA

NSH @ VAN

PIT @ VGK

COL @ SEA

How it works

  1. Lines and PP1 come from each team's last three games of shift data: the forward trio with the most 5-on-5 time together, and the power-play five with the most time together.
  2. Unit strength is expected goals for per 60 minutes, recent games plus the season, shrunk toward league average so a hot two-game sample does not dominate.
  3. Matchup: the opponent's 5-on-5 expected goals against per 60 (for lines) or its penalty-kill rate and shorthanded minutes (for PP1), relative to the league.
  4. Goalie: the likely opposing starter from our goalie start model, weighted by probability, with his save % shrunk toward league average; shot-class save % when available.
  5. Stack score = rate × minutes × P(unit intact) × matchup × goalie, in expected goals for tonight, so lines and power plays rank on one scale.

Methodology: How we detect lines · Expected goals · Goalie shot classes · Goalie start model

Frequently asked questions

What is a stack in fantasy hockey?

A stack is a group of teammates who play together, usually a forward line or the first power-play unit, so one goal pays several of your players at once. It is the main strategy in daily fantasy hockey.

How are stacks ranked?

Each unit gets an expected-goals number for tonight: how many chances it creates per 60 minutes (recent games plus season, shrunk toward league average), how many minutes it plays, how likely it is to stay together, how leaky the opponent is at 5-on-5 or shorthanded, and how good the likely opposing goalie is.

Where do the lines come from?

From the NHL shift charts of each team's last three games: the three forwards who share the most 5-on-5 ice time form a line, and the five skaters with the most power-play time together form PP1.

Why does it say "shot-based"?

While a season is being reprocessed with our expected-goals model, unit rates fall back to shots on goal times a league-average 0.075 xG per shot. The ranking logic is the same.