Injury cascade
Who benefits when Jack Ahcan is out?
Jack Ahcan (D, Nashville Predators) plays 7:36 a night and PP2, with 20% of the team's power-play time over his last 10 games. He has missed the team's last 2 games.
Based on 4 games without Jack Ahcan and 3 with him. Through games of Oct 17, 2026.
Expected change per game without him
+3:20 TOI · 8.9% rost
+1:12 TOI, +9 PP% · 19% rost
+0:25 TOI, +11 PP% · 15% rost
+1:40 TOI · 4.8% rost
+1:03 TOI · 98% rost
Ranked beneficiaries
Show
| Player | Games | Exp. Δ TOI | Rost % | Basis | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam WilsbyDIn 4 games without Jack Ahcan, Adam Wilsby played 21:15 (+4:59). | 4 | 16:16 → 21:15 | +3:20 | 0% → 1% | 0/4 | 8.9%▲4.1 | Games without him |
| Jonathan MarchessaultCIn 4 games without Jack Ahcan, Jonathan Marchessault played 17:20 (+1:47) and took PP1 in 4 of them (33% of games with him). | 4 | 15:33 → 17:20 | +1:12 | 42% → 55% | 4/4 | 19% | Games without him |
| Brady SkjeiDIn 4 games without Jack Ahcan, Brady Skjei played 19:58 (+0:37) and PP share went 4% → 20%. | 4 | 19:21 → 19:58 | +0:25 | 4% → 20% | 0/4 | 15%▼1.1 | Games without him |
| Jack DruryCIn 4 games without Jack Ahcan, Jack Drury played 17:52 (+2:30). | 4 | 15:21 → 17:52 | +1:40 | 0% → 1% | 0/4 | 4.8% | Games without him |
| Roman JosiDIn 4 games without Jack Ahcan, Roman Josi played 26:19 (+1:34). | 4 | 24:45 → 26:19 | +1:03 | 65% → 64% | 4/4 | 98% | Games without him |
FAQ
Who benefits when Jack Ahcan is out?
Adam Wilsby projects to gain the most (+3:20 a game). In 4 games without Jack Ahcan, Adam Wilsby played 21:15 (+4:59).
How many games has NSH played without Jack Ahcan?
4 games in the loaded seasons while he was on the roster, against 3 with him.
How it works
- We find every game the injured player missed while on the team's roster this season and last (including the current absence), and compare each teammate's ice time, power-play share and PP1 usage in those games with the games the injured player dressed.
- Changes are shrunk toward zero when the sample is small (a change over n games counts n / (n + 2) of its size), so one odd game does not crown a beneficiary.
- When there is little or no absence history, we fall back to line adjacency from our shift-based line detection: the next man up on his power-play unit (the top PP2 player at his position) and the best player one line or pair below his.
- Players are ranked by expected fantasy opportunity: TOI minutes, plus power-play share (10 points of PP share ≈ 1.2 minutes of even-strength TOI), plus PP1 gains.