Injury cascade
Who benefits when Justin Sourdif is out?
Justin Sourdif (C, Washington Capitals) plays 14:05 a night on L1 and PP1, with 14% of the team's power-play time over his last 10 games. He has missed the team's last 2 games.
Based on 6 games without Justin Sourdif and 85 with him. Through games of Oct 20, 2026.
Expected change per game without him
Ranked beneficiaries
| Player | Games | Exp. Δ TOI | If he takes the spot | Rost % | Basis | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan LeonardRIn 6 games without Justin Sourdif, Ryan Leonard played 16:13 (+1:58), took PP1 in 6 of them (49% of games with him) and moved up to his L1 slot in 1. | 6 | 14:15 → 16:13 | +1:29 | 39% → 50% | 6/6 | +18% EV scoring (0.44 → 0.52 a game) | 72%▲4.5 | Games without him |
| Ivan MiroshnichenkoLIn 3 games without Justin Sourdif, Ivan Miroshnichenko played 11:39 (+2:09) and PP share went 2% → 15%. | 3 | 9:30 → 11:39 | +1:17 | 2% → 15% | 0/3 | – | 14%▲0.8 | Games without him |
| Jakob ChychrunDIn 5 games without Justin Sourdif, Jakob Chychrun played 24:49 (+1:26) and took PP1 in 5 of them (76% of games with him). | 5 | 23:23 → 24:49 | +1:01 | 52% → 61% | 5/5 | – | 99% | Games without him |
| Dylan StromeCIn 6 games without Justin Sourdif, Dylan Strome played 19:42 (+1:54) and moved up to his L1 slot in 5. | 6 | 17:48 → 19:42 | +1:25 | 53% → 56% | 6/6 | +6% EV scoring (0.47 → 0.50 a game) | 79%▼2.3 | Games without him |
| Jordan KyrouCIn 2 games without Justin Sourdif, Jordan Kyrou played 14:59 (+1:42) and moved up to his L1 slot in 2. | 2 | 13:16 → 14:59 | +0:51 | 34% → 36% | 0/2 | +18% EV scoring (0.43 → 0.51 a game) | 68%▼1.3 | Games without him |
| Alex OvechkinLIn 6 games without Justin Sourdif, Alex Ovechkin played 18:11 (+1:08) and moved up to his L1 slot in 3. | 6 | 17:03 → 18:11 | +0:51 | 74% → 76% | 6/6 | +6% EV scoring (0.54 → 0.57 a game) | 88%▼4 | Games without him |
“If he takes the spot” is the typical change in even-strength scoring for a forward of his scoring level moved onto a top-six line, from 6,054 games in 2017–26 (depth forwards +50%, middle-six +18%, top scorers +6%). It only applies if he actually gets the spot, and no player has shown a repeatable knack for beating it. The research →
FAQ
Who benefits when Justin Sourdif is out?
Ryan Leonard projects to gain the most (+1:29 a game). In 6 games without Justin Sourdif, Ryan Leonard played 16:13 (+1:58), took PP1 in 6 of them (49% of games with him) and moved up to his L1 slot in 1.
Who replaces Justin Sourdif on the first power-play unit?
Ryan Leonard is the likeliest replacement: his power-play share goes from 39% to 50% over 6 games without Justin Sourdif.
How many games has WSH played without Justin Sourdif?
6 games in the loaded seasons while he was on the roster, against 85 with him.
How it works
- We find every game the injured player missed while on the team's roster this season and last (including the current absence), and compare each teammate's ice time, power-play share and PP1 usage in those games with the games the injured player dressed.
- Changes are shrunk toward zero when the sample is small (a change over n games counts n / (n + 2) of its size), so one odd game does not crown a beneficiary.
- When there is little or no absence history, we fall back to line adjacency from our shift-based line detection: the next man up on his power-play unit (the top PP2 player at his position) and the best player one line or pair below his.
- Players are ranked by expected fantasy opportunity: TOI minutes, plus power-play share (10 points of PP share ≈ 1.2 minutes of even-strength TOI), plus PP1 gains.