Injury cascade
Who benefits when Max Crozier is out?
Max Crozier (D, Tampa Bay Lightning) plays 16:13 a night on D3, with 1% of the team's power-play time over his last 10 games. He has missed the team's last 2 games.
Based on 52 games without Max Crozier and 42 with him. Through games of Oct 20, 2026.
Expected change per game without him
+1:25 TOI, +16 PP% · 84% rost
+1:13 TOI · 3.2% rost
+0:35 TOI, +5 PP% · 5.6% rost
+1:01 TOI · 4.8% rost
+0:44 TOI · 6.7% rost
+0:17 TOI · 44% rost
Ranked beneficiaries
Show
| Player | Games | Exp. Δ TOI | Rost % | Basis | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor HedmanDIn 26 games without Max Crozier, Victor Hedman played 18:34 (+1:32), PP share went 19% → 36% and moved up to his D3 slot in 12. | 26 | 17:02 → 18:34 | +1:25 | 19% → 37% | 9/26 | 84%▼1 | Games without him |
| Jeffrey VielLIn 1 game without Max Crozier, Jeffrey Viel played 12:56 (+3:39). | 1 | 9:17 → 12:56 | +1:13 | 2% → 0% | 0/1 | 3.2% | Games without him |
| Dominic JamesCIn 26 games without Max Crozier, Dominic James played 12:30 (+0:38). | 26 | 11:52 → 12:30 | +0:35 | 8% → 13% | 0/26 | 5.6% | Games without him |
| Emil LillebergDIn 40 games without Max Crozier, Emil Lilleberg played 17:26 (+1:05). | 40 | 16:21 → 17:26 | +1:01 | 0% → 0% | 0/40 | 4.8% | Games without him |
| Ilya MikheyevRIn 2 games without Max Crozier, Ilya Mikheyev played 16:38 (+1:27). | 2 | 15:11 → 16:38 | +0:44 | 0% → 0% | 0/2 | 6.7%▼0.8 | Games without him |
| Anthony CirelliCIn 45 games without Max Crozier, Anthony Cirelli played 17:31 (+0:18). | 45 | 17:13 → 17:31 | +0:17 | 18% → 21% | 1/45 | 44%▼2.2 | Games without him |
FAQ
Who benefits when Max Crozier is out?
Victor Hedman projects to gain the most (+1:25 a game). In 26 games without Max Crozier, Victor Hedman played 18:34 (+1:32), PP share went 19% → 36% and moved up to his D3 slot in 12.
How many games has TBL played without Max Crozier?
52 games in the loaded seasons while he was on the roster, against 42 with him.
How it works
- We find every game the injured player missed while on the team's roster this season and last (including the current absence), and compare each teammate's ice time, power-play share and PP1 usage in those games with the games the injured player dressed.
- Changes are shrunk toward zero when the sample is small (a change over n games counts n / (n + 2) of its size), so one odd game does not crown a beneficiary.
- When there is little or no absence history, we fall back to line adjacency from our shift-based line detection: the next man up on his power-play unit (the top PP2 player at his position) and the best player one line or pair below his.
- Players are ranked by expected fantasy opportunity: TOI minutes, plus power-play share (10 points of PP share ≈ 1.2 minutes of even-strength TOI), plus PP1 gains.