Injury cascade
Who benefits when Nicolas Roy is out?
Nicolas Roy (C, Colorado Avalanche) plays 11:44 a night on L4 and PP2, with 4% of the team's power-play time over his last 10 games. He has missed the team's last 4 games.
Based on 11 games without Nicolas Roy and 34 with him. Through games of Oct 20, 2026.
Expected change per game without him
+1:47 TOI, +13 PP% · 32% rost
+0:27 TOI, +10 PP% · 88% rost
+1:28 TOI · 11% rost
+0:41 TOI, +6 PP% · 100% rost
+0:34 TOI, +5 PP% · 72% rost
Ranked beneficiaries
Show
| Player | Games | Exp. Δ TOI | Rost % | Basis | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaden SchwartzLIn 4 games without Nicolas Roy, Jaden Schwartz played 15:39 (+2:40) and took PP1 in 3 of them (0% of games with him). | 4 | 12:59 → 15:39 | +1:47 | 25% → 44% | 3/4 | 32%▲2 | Games without him |
| Brock NelsonCIn 11 games without Nicolas Roy, Brock Nelson played 19:46 (+0:32) and took PP1 in 7 of them (42% of games with him). | 11 | 19:14 → 19:46 | +0:27 | 37% → 48% | 7/11 | 88%▲1.4 | Games without him |
| Fedor SvechkovCIn 4 games without Nicolas Roy, Fedor Svechkov played 15:13 (+2:12). | 4 | 13:01 → 15:13 | +1:28 | 0% → 1% | 0/4 | 11%▲1.7 | Games without him |
| Nathan MacKinnonCIn 11 games without Nicolas Roy, Nathan MacKinnon played 22:25 (+0:48) and PP share went 66% → 72%. | 11 | 21:38 → 22:25 | +0:41 | 66% → 72% | 11/11 | 100% | Games without him |
| Nazem KadriCIn 11 games without Nicolas Roy, Nazem Kadri played 18:35 (+0:41) and PP share went 60% → 66%. | 11 | 17:55 → 18:35 | +0:34 | 60% → 66% | 11/11 | 72%▲2.7 | Games without him |
FAQ
Who benefits when Nicolas Roy is out?
Jaden Schwartz projects to gain the most (+1:47 a game). In 4 games without Nicolas Roy, Jaden Schwartz played 15:39 (+2:40) and took PP1 in 3 of them (0% of games with him).
How many games has COL played without Nicolas Roy?
11 games in the loaded seasons while he was on the roster, against 34 with him.
How it works
- We find every game the injured player missed while on the team's roster this season and last (including the current absence), and compare each teammate's ice time, power-play share and PP1 usage in those games with the games the injured player dressed.
- Changes are shrunk toward zero when the sample is small (a change over n games counts n / (n + 2) of its size), so one odd game does not crown a beneficiary.
- When there is little or no absence history, we fall back to line adjacency from our shift-based line detection: the next man up on his power-play unit (the top PP2 player at his position) and the best player one line or pair below his.
- Players are ranked by expected fantasy opportunity: TOI minutes, plus power-play share (10 points of PP share ≈ 1.2 minutes of even-strength TOI), plus PP1 gains.