Injury cascade
Who benefits when Scott Sabourin is out?
Scott Sabourin (R, Tampa Bay Lightning) plays 7:50 a night on L4, with 1% of the team's power-play time over his last 10 games. He has missed the team's last 4 games.
Based on 46 games without Scott Sabourin and 29 with him. Through games of Oct 20, 2026.
Expected change per game without him
+1:25 TOI, +5 PP% · 19% rost
+1:06 TOI, +5 PP% · 100% rost
+1:39 TOI · 4.8% rost
+1:20 TOI · 21% rost
+0:48 TOI · 6.6% rost
+0:45 TOI · 16% rost
Ranked beneficiaries
Show
| Player | Games | Exp. Δ TOI | Rost % | Basis | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conor GeekieCIn 7 games without Scott Sabourin, Conor Geekie played 11:40 (+1:50) and PP share went 5% → 11%. | 7 | 9:50 → 11:40 | +1:25 | 5% → 12% | 0/7 | 19%▼0.8 | Games without him |
| Brandon HagelLIn 39 games without Scott Sabourin, Brandon Hagel played 20:20 (+1:09), PP share went 39% → 45% and moved up to his L4 slot in 2. | 39 | 19:11 → 20:20 | +1:06 | 39% → 45% | 19/39 | 100% | Games without him |
| Emil LillebergDIn 23 games without Scott Sabourin, Emil Lilleberg played 18:56 (+1:47). | 23 | 17:08 → 18:56 | +1:39 | 0% → 1% | 0/23 | 4.8% | Games without him |
| Charle-Edouard D'AstousDIn 42 games without Scott Sabourin, Charle-Edouard D'Astous played 19:19 (+1:24). | 42 | 17:55 → 19:19 | +1:20 | 14% → 17% | 3/42 | 21% | Games without him |
| Erik CernakDIn 32 games without Scott Sabourin, Erik Cernak played 17:45 (+0:51). | 32 | 16:54 → 17:45 | +0:48 | 1% → 1% | 0/32 | 6.6%▲0.9 | Games without him |
| J.J. MoserDIn 46 games without Scott Sabourin, J.J. Moser played 22:02 (+0:47). | 46 | 21:15 → 22:02 | +0:45 | 3% → 2% | 0/46 | 16%▼2.5 | Games without him |
FAQ
Who benefits when Scott Sabourin is out?
Conor Geekie projects to gain the most (+1:25 a game). In 7 games without Scott Sabourin, Conor Geekie played 11:40 (+1:50) and PP share went 5% → 11%.
How many games has TBL played without Scott Sabourin?
46 games in the loaded seasons while he was on the roster, against 29 with him.
How it works
- We find every game the injured player missed while on the team's roster this season and last (including the current absence), and compare each teammate's ice time, power-play share and PP1 usage in those games with the games the injured player dressed.
- Changes are shrunk toward zero when the sample is small (a change over n games counts n / (n + 2) of its size), so one odd game does not crown a beneficiary.
- When there is little or no absence history, we fall back to line adjacency from our shift-based line detection: the next man up on his power-play unit (the top PP2 player at his position) and the best player one line or pair below his.
- Players are ranked by expected fantasy opportunity: TOI minutes, plus power-play share (10 points of PP share ≈ 1.2 minutes of even-strength TOI), plus PP1 gains.