Injury cascade
Who benefits when Tyson Kozak is out?
Tyson Kozak (C, Buffalo Sabres) plays 11:07 a night on L4, with 1% of the team's power-play time over his last 10 games. He has missed the team's last 4 games.
Based on 41 games without Tyson Kozak and 54 with him. Through games of Oct 21, 2026.
Expected change per game without him
+0:48 TOI, +4 PP% · 75% rost
+1:00 TOI · 3.2% rost
+0:33 TOI · 4.1% rost
+0:23 TOI · 31% rost
+0:08 TOI · 50% rost
−0:10 TOI, +4 PP% · 37% rost
Ranked beneficiaries
Show
| Player | Games | Exp. Δ TOI | Rost % | Basis | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen PowerDIn 41 games without Tyson Kozak, Owen Power played 22:21 (+0:50) and took PP1 in 7 of them (2% of games with him). | 41 | 21:31 → 22:21 | +0:48 | 15% → 19% | 7/41 | 75%▲5 | Games without him |
| Zach MetsaDIn 26 games without Tyson Kozak, Zach Metsa played 11:48 (+1:05). | 26 | 10:43 → 11:48 | +1:00 | 1% → 0% | 0/26 | 3.2% | Games without him |
| Beck MalenstynLIn 41 games without Tyson Kozak, Beck Malenstyn played 11:31 (+0:35). | 41 | 10:56 → 11:31 | +0:33 | 1% → 0% | 0/41 | 4.1% | Games without him |
| Josh NorrisCIn 34 games without Tyson Kozak, Josh Norris played 15:48 (+0:24) and moved up to his L4 slot in 2. | 34 | 15:24 → 15:48 | +0:23 | 46% → 48% | 24/34 | 31%▼2.6 | Games without him |
| Josh DoanRIn 41 games without Tyson Kozak, Josh Doan played 15:57 (+0:09) and moved up to his L4 slot in 3. | 41 | 15:48 → 15:57 | +0:08 | 42% → 43% | 24/41 | 50%▼3.7 | Games without him |
| Konsta HeleniusCIn 6 games without Tyson Kozak, Konsta Helenius played 11:59 (−0:14) and PP share went 5% → 10%. | 6 | 12:13 → 11:59 | −0:10 | 5% → 10% | 0/6 | 37%▼1.7 | Games without him |
FAQ
Who benefits when Tyson Kozak is out?
Owen Power projects to gain the most (+0:48 a game). In 41 games without Tyson Kozak, Owen Power played 22:21 (+0:50) and took PP1 in 7 of them (2% of games with him).
How many games has BUF played without Tyson Kozak?
41 games in the loaded seasons while he was on the roster, against 54 with him.
How it works
- We find every game the injured player missed while on the team's roster this season and last (including the current absence), and compare each teammate's ice time, power-play share and PP1 usage in those games with the games the injured player dressed.
- Changes are shrunk toward zero when the sample is small (a change over n games counts n / (n + 2) of its size), so one odd game does not crown a beneficiary.
- When there is little or no absence history, we fall back to line adjacency from our shift-based line detection: the next man up on his power-play unit (the top PP2 player at his position) and the best player one line or pair below his.
- Players are ranked by expected fantasy opportunity: TOI minutes, plus power-play share (10 points of PP share ≈ 1.2 minutes of even-strength TOI), plus PP1 gains.