How Football ChangedFourth down and beyond
Kickers Broke the 50-Yard Line
In 1999 a 50-yard field goal was close to a coin flip, and a team tried one about every six games. By 2025 teams tried one almost every other game and made about seven in ten. Kickers made more even at the same distance and outdoors. From 2021–23 to 2024–25 the tries kept climbing, and the make rate held.
By Edgehalla ResearchPublished Updated 8 min read
On Nov 2, 2025, the Jacksonville Jaguars had 4 seconds left in the first half on the road against the Raiders. Coach Liam Coen chose a field goal try over a Hail Mary, Fox News reported.
Cam Little made it from 68 yards, the longest field goal in NFL history, according to the Pro Football Hall of Fame.
From 1999 through 2005, NFL kickers tried 15 field goals of 60 yards or more and made zero. In 2025 they made 12 of 22.
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The 50-yard kick stopped being a coin flip
Little's 68 led the highlight shows. The kick fans see most weeks is the plain 50-yarder, and in 1999 it went in about half the time.
That year NFL kickers made 40 of 82 tries from 50 yards or more, no better than calling a coin toss. In 2025 they made 183 of 266, about seven in ten. The best season in our data was 2024, at just under seven in ten.
Long field goals went from a coin flip to about seven in ten
Share of 50+ yard field goals made, regular season. Dashed line: 40–49 yard kicks, for comparison. Shaded band: where the 50+ rate could land by luck alone in a season of that size. Blocked kicks count as misses.
Show data
| Year | 50+ yards | 50+ yards (range) | 40–49 yards |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1999 | 48.8% | 38.3% to 59.4% | 67.7% |
| 2000 | 56.1% | 44.1% to 67.4% | 69.9% |
| 2001 | 52.1% | 40.8% to 63.1% | 59.8% |
| 2002 | 51.8% | 41.3% to 62.1% | 64.3% |
| 2003 | 48.4% | 38.5% to 58.4% | 69.6% |
| 2004 | 58.2% | 48.0% to 67.8% | 72.2% |
| 2005 | 52.2% | 42.1% to 62.1% | 71.5% |
| 2006 | 47.1% | 36.8% to 57.6% | 73.5% |
| 2007 | 46.4% | 36.8% to 56.3% | 74.2% |
| 2008 | 63.5% | 53.9% to 72.1% | 74.4% |
| 2009 | 52.9% | 43.4% to 62.2% | 72.9% |
| 2010 | 54.6% | 45.2% to 63.7% | 73.2% |
| 2011 | 64.3% | 56.1% to 71.7% | 74.0% |
| 2012 | 60.9% | 53.0% to 68.3% | 80.2% |
| 2013 | 67.1% | 59.1% to 74.3% | 83.0% |
| 2014 | 61.0% | 53.2% to 68.4% | 77.4% |
| 2015 | 65.0% | 57.3% to 72.0% | 75.7% |
| 2016 | 56.7% | 48.7% to 64.3% | 79.4% |
| 2017 | 69.5% | 61.8% to 76.2% | 79.4% |
| 2018 | 63.8% | 55.9% to 71.0% | 76.5% |
| 2019 | 57.9% | 49.8% to 65.7% | 71.4% |
| 2020 | 63.1% | 55.6% to 70.0% | 80.6% |
| 2021 | 65.9% | 58.8% to 72.4% | 77.6% |
| 2022 | 68.8% | 62.4% to 74.5% | 80.5% |
| 2023 | 68.7% | 62.4% to 74.3% | 79.6% |
| 2024 | 69.9% | 64.3% to 75.0% | 76.7% |
| 2025 | 68.8% | 63.0% to 74.1% | 84.3% |
The line wobbles because a season has only about 65 to 280 long tries. In 2000, with 66, two kicks that clanged off an upright instead of going in would have cut the make rate by about three in 100. The shaded band around the line marks how high or low a season of that size could land on luck alone. The climb from 1999 to 2025 is bigger than that. The two years' bands don't overlap, and the era comparisons below are far apart.
The dashed line is kicks of 40 to 49 yards. They climbed too, from about two in three in 1999 to about five in six in 2025, a one-year high (about four in five across 2020–2025).
Teams also try three times as many
In 1999 a team tried a 50-yarder about once every six games. By 2025 it was about once every other game, three times as often. At the peak, in 2024, one field goal try in four came from 50 yards or more.
Teams try about three times as many 50-yard kicks a game
Kicks of 50+ yards per team per game, tried and made, regular season. Counted per game so the 17-game seasons since 2021 don’t inflate it.
kicks
Show data
| Year | Tried | Made |
|---|---|---|
| 1999 | 0.17 kicks | 0.08 kicks |
| 2000 | 0.13 kicks | 0.08 kicks |
| 2001 | 0.15 kicks | 0.08 kicks |
| 2002 | 0.17 kicks | 0.09 kicks |
| 2003 | 0.18 kicks | 0.09 kicks |
| 2004 | 0.18 kicks | 0.10 kicks |
| 2005 | 0.18 kicks | 0.09 kicks |
| 2006 | 0.17 kicks | 0.08 kicks |
| 2007 | 0.19 kicks | 0.09 kicks |
| 2008 | 0.20 kicks | 0.13 kicks |
| 2009 | 0.20 kicks | 0.11 kicks |
| 2010 | 0.21 kicks | 0.12 kicks |
| 2011 | 0.27 kicks | 0.18 kicks |
| 2012 | 0.30 kicks | 0.18 kicks |
| 2013 | 0.28 kicks | 0.19 kicks |
| 2014 | 0.30 kicks | 0.18 kicks |
| 2015 | 0.31 kicks | 0.20 kicks |
| 2016 | 0.29 kicks | 0.17 kicks |
| 2017 | 0.30 kicks | 0.21 kicks |
| 2018 | 0.30 kicks | 0.19 kicks |
| 2019 | 0.28 kicks | 0.16 kicks |
| 2020 | 0.33 kicks | 0.21 kicks |
| 2021 | 0.34 kicks | 0.22 kicks |
| 2022 | 0.41 kicks | 0.28 kicks |
| 2023 | 0.42 kicks | 0.29 kicks |
| 2024 | 0.51 kicks | 0.36 kicks |
| 2025 | 0.49 kicks | 0.34 kicks |
Makes climbed even more steeply than tries. In 2025 a team made about four times as many long field goals a game as in 1999, on three times as many tries.
The average field goal try also got about four yards longer between 1999 and 2025, and kickers still made more of them. Of every field goal tried in 1999, at any length, about 78 in 100 went in. In 2025 about 86 did.
At the same distance, more kicks went in
Distance costs makes, and the extra point shows how much. In 2015 the league moved the snap back, turning a 20-yard kick into a 33-yard one, 13 yards farther. Kickers had made about 99 in 100 from the old spot in 2014. In 2015, from the new one, they made about 94, about five fewer in every 100. By 2025 it was about 96. Today's average field goal try is about four yards longer than in 1999. So the raw make rate can't tell a better kicker from a shorter kick.
To pull those apart, we split the 27 seasons into four eras, 1999–2005, 2006–2012, 2013–2019 and 2020–2025, and compare kicks of the same length. Take a 52- or 53-yarder. Kickers in 1999–2005 made about half of them. Kickers in 2020–2025 made about seven in ten.
Widen the window to five yards and the gap holds. From 50 to 54 yards, kickers in 1999–2005 made about 57% of about 500 tries. In 2020–2025 it was about 73% of about 900.
From 55 to 59 yards the rate more than doubled, from under three in ten (18 of 64 in 1999–2005) to about six in ten (242 of 389 in 2020–2025). In 1999 alone, kickers made one of eight from that range. The two eras in between fall neatly in order. From 55 to 59 they made about 46% and then about 55%, and from 50 to 54 about 60% and then about 67%.
From 40 yards out, every era kicked better than the one before
Share of field goals made at each distance, regular season. Each line is one era, all its kicks together, shown every two yards (50–51, 52–53 …). Points with fewer than 25 tries are left out.
Kick distance (yards)
Show data
| Kick distance (yards) | 1999–2005 | 2006–2012 | 2013–2019 | 2020–2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 98% | 98% | 100% | 99% |
| 22 | 98% | 98% | 99% | 99% |
| 24 | 96% | 97% | 98% | 98% |
| 26 | 96% | 95% | 98% | 96% |
| 28 | 89% | 93% | 95% | 97% |
| 30 | 88% | 91% | 96% | 97% |
| 32 | 85% | 92% | 95% | 96% |
| 34 | 81% | 87% | 89% | 93% |
| 36 | 83% | 84% | 90% | 90% |
| 38 | 78% | 86% | 86% | 91% |
| 40 | 78% | 81% | 86% | 86% |
| 42 | 72% | 77% | 80% | 83% |
| 44 | 63% | 77% | 78% | 80% |
| 46 | 65% | 73% | 74% | 75% |
| 48 | 58% | 66% | 70% | 76% |
| 50 | 61% | 64% | 70% | 73% |
| 52 | 51% | 58% | 65% | 71% |
| 54 | 49% | 55% | 59% | 71% |
| 56 | – | 48% | 57% | 62% |
| 58 | – | 32% | 47% | 61% |
| 60 | – | – | – | 46% |
Pick any distance from 40 to 59 yards and read straight up. Each newer era's line, from 1999–2005 at the bottom to 2020–2025 at the top, sits higher than the one before it. Below 40 the lines run high and close together, nearing 100% at the short end, and cross at 20 and 26 yards, and two eras tie at 38. Past 54 the 1999–2005 line stops, because that era had too few longer kicks, so from 56 to 59 only three eras compare.
One more check uses a different yardstick. It hands 1999 and 2025 the identical list of kicks, the same number from 50 yards, from 51 and so on up to 59, and asks how many each year's kickers would make. The 1999 kickers make about four in ten of that list; the 2025 kickers, about seven in ten. Run the check on a list of every length, from chip shots up, and it's about three in four against almost nine in ten. Those last two differ from the 78 and 86 in 100 above because the list is fixed. Both years kick the same mix of short and long tries, the mix of all 27 seasons together, so the gap left over has nothing to do with distance.
Luck can't close a gap this size. Even allowing for it, the oldest and newest eras are nowhere near each other at 50 to 54 yards or at 55 to 59.
Outdoor kickers improved as much as indoor ones
One easy explanation is the roof. More long kicks happen in domes now, about two in five of them in 2025 against about one in four in 1999. A dome kick never meets a December crosswind, and it goes in more often. So the move indoors lifts the league number a little.
The outdoor kicks climbed anyway. From 50 yards or more, outdoor kickers made about 51% in 1999–2005, then about 54%, 62% and 66% in the eras that followed. That's a gain of about 15 points. Indoor kickers gained about 14, from about 57% to about 71%.
Outdoor kickers improved about as much as indoor ones
Share of 50+ yard field goals made, by era. Indoor means a dome or a closed roof. Outdoor includes open retractable roofs.
Outdoor kickers rose from 50.8% to 65.7% from 50+, and indoor kickers from 57.4% to 71.4%.
Follow the outdoor bars from the oldest era to the newest. They rise every time, and so do the indoor bars beside them.
Coaches now kick where they used to punt
The extra long tries had to come from somewhere. Many came on fourth downs that used to end in a punt.
A field goal from the 32 is a 50-yarder. Add the 10 yards of end zone, since the goalposts stand at the back of it, and the seven or eight yards back to the holder. So a fourth down 32 to 41 yards from the end zone means a 50- to 59-yard kick.
In 1999 the most common call from there was a punt, about half the time. A field goal came about one time in five. By 2025 the two had traded places. Teams kicked about half the time and punted about one time in nine. Going for it moved less, from about 31 in 100 to about 35.
From 50–59 yard range, the punt gave way to the field goal
What teams did on fourth down with the ball 32–41 yards from the end zone (a 50–59 yard kick). Plays erased by penalty are left out.
Show data
| Year | Field goal | Punt | Go for it |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1999 | 19.4% | 49.2% | 31.3% |
| 2000 | 15.9% | 54.0% | 30.1% |
| 2001 | 15.4% | 52.9% | 31.6% |
| 2002 | 16.7% | 51.6% | 31.7% |
| 2003 | 17.0% | 53.1% | 29.9% |
| 2004 | 20.2% | 51.4% | 28.4% |
| 2005 | 21.7% | 44.7% | 33.6% |
| 2006 | 18.6% | 50.8% | 30.5% |
| 2007 | 20.4% | 43.9% | 35.7% |
| 2008 | 23.8% | 44.0% | 32.3% |
| 2009 | 23.4% | 43.6% | 33.0% |
| 2010 | 23.7% | 48.2% | 28.0% |
| 2011 | 32.8% | 37.2% | 30.1% |
| 2012 | 36.6% | 36.9% | 26.6% |
| 2013 | 32.9% | 36.9% | 30.2% |
| 2014 | 37.0% | 35.9% | 27.1% |
| 2015 | 38.0% | 32.0% | 30.0% |
| 2016 | 35.6% | 32.3% | 32.0% |
| 2017 | 35.8% | 32.8% | 31.4% |
| 2018 | 37.2% | 32.2% | 30.6% |
| 2019 | 35.0% | 27.2% | 37.9% |
| 2020 | 36.6% | 23.0% | 40.4% |
| 2021 | 39.9% | 19.9% | 40.2% |
| 2022 | 46.8% | 15.8% | 37.4% |
| 2023 | 47.8% | 14.4% | 37.8% |
| 2024 | 55.2% | 11.1% | 33.7% |
| 2025 | 52.9% | 11.7% | 35.4% |
On the chart, the punt line slides down and the field goal line climbs past it. A coach facing fourth down at the other team's 35 used to send out his punter. Now he sends out his kicker, and that kicker makes more of those tries than kickers did in 1999.
Tries jumped again in 2024–25, and the make rate held
The make rate has held flat since 2021, even as tries jumped again in 2024–25 (with a small dip in 2025). Every season since 2021, kickers have made between about two in three and seven in ten from 50 yards or more.
Split those five seasons in two. A team tried a 50-yarder about once every two and a half games in 2021–23 and about once every other game in 2024–25. Kickers made about 68% of them in the first stretch and about 69% in the second. Eight more misses out of 545 tries in 2024–25 would erase that gap, so it could be luck.
Tries from 60 yards or more nearly doubled over the same split, from about once every 50 games per team in 2021–23 to about once every 30 in 2024–25. Kickers made about 45% of 31 tries, then about 43% of 37. One more make in 2024–25 would have put the later stretch ahead.
A few kickers make it look routine
A handful of kickers carry a big share of those long makes. The six on the table below made about one in three of the league's long field goals in 2024–25. Brandon Aubrey of Dallas made 25 of 34 from 50 yards or more over those two seasons. That's about three in four, and the most makes of anyone. Over 2020–25, among kickers with at least 30 tries from that range, Chris Boswell of Pittsburgh was narrowly the most accurate. He made 44 of 52, about five in six.
Thirty-four kicks isn't many. Two misses either way would move Aubrey's rate by about six in 100.
| Kicker | Tries | Made | Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| B. Aubrey | 34 | 25 | 73.5% |
| C. Boswell | 26 | 22 | 84.6% |
| K. Fairbairn | 29 | 22 | 75.9% |
| C. McLaughlin | 22 | 19 | 86.4% |
| W. Reichard | 24 | 19 | 79.2% |
| J. Myers | 24 | 18 | 75.0% |
Each kicker on the list made at least 18 long field goals in those two seasons. In all of 1999, the whole league made 40.
Sixty yards is still mostly a heave, except for Aubrey
A 60-yarder is usually a different kind of kick. Most come with the clock about to run out on a half, as a last-second heave. Of the 164 tries from 60 yards or more from 1999 through 2025, 128 came with 10 seconds or less left in a half. That's more than three in four. In 2025 it was 15 of 22. Little's 68 was one of them, a last shot before halftime. Brandon Aubrey is the exception.
Justin Tucker held the record before Little. On Sept 26, 2021, he beat Detroit from 66 yards with 3 seconds left, a kick that went in off the crossbar. From 60 yards or more he made two of nine in our 1999–2025 data.
| Kicker | Tries | Made | Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| B. Aubrey | 9 | 6 | 66.7% |
| B. Maher | 4 | 4 | 100.0% |
| M. Prater | 5 | 3 | 60.0% |
| G. Zuerlein | 9 | 3 | 33.3% |
| C. Little | 2 | 2 | 100.0% |
| H. Butker | 3 | 2 | 66.7% |
| J. Elliott | 3 | 2 | 66.7% |
| J. Slye | 8 | 2 | 25.0% |
| J. Tucker | 9 | 2 | 22.2% |
Continues below
| Kicker | Tries | Made | Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| S. Janikowski | 9 | 2 | 22.2% |
Most names on the list have two makes. Aubrey, at the top, kicks his with time on the clock. Through 2025 he made six of nine from 60 yards or more, the most makes in our data, and only one of those six came in the last 10 seconds of a half. His 65-yarder against Baltimore, on Sept 22, 2024, came in the first quarter.
Nine weeks after his record, Little lined up again. On Jan 4, 2026, at home against Tennessee, with 3 seconds left before halftime, he made a 67-yarder. CBS Sports noted it was the longest field goal ever kicked outdoors, and quoted an NFL post calling it the second-longest in NFL history. Both of Little's kicks went past Tucker's 66. From 1999 through 2005, nobody had made one from 60.
Kicking tools
Live Edgehalla tools on the same subject.
Show the work
- Tests written down
- Not in advance (exploratory)
- Results computed
Every regular-season field goal try in nflverse play-by-play, 1999–2025: 26,630 tries, 3,778 from 50+ yards, 6,964 games, plus 9,959 fourth downs from 50–59 yard range. Blocked kicks count as misses. Thirteen tries with a penalty enforced between downs (play type blank or no_play) are left out; including them moves no rate by more than 0.3 points and changes no rounded figure in the story text (a few one-decimal figures in chart summaries move by 0.1, e.g. 57.1 to 57.0 at 50–54 yards in 1999–2005). Kick distance is the play-by-play kick distance, else the yard line plus 18. Tries per game are a season's total divided by twice the number of games. "The same set of kicks" means the make rate within each one-yard distance, weighted by how often each distance was tried across 1999–2025 pooled (50–59 yards for the long rate; every distance for the overall rate). Luck ranges are 95% Wilson intervals. The distance curve pools each era's kicks in two-yard steps and shows a step only with 25+ tries. Game clock and opponent for the longest kicks come from the same play-by-play. Play-by-play starts in 1999, so there is no earlier series. Descriptive only; no model and no holdout.
| Test | Result | Verdict |
|---|---|---|
| Fixed distance mix (50–59 yards weighted by the pooled mix) | 41.8% (1999) vs 70.7% (2025) | Rise holds |
More tests below
| Test | Result | Verdict |
|---|---|---|
| All distances at a fixed mix | 75.2% vs 88.6% | Rise holds |
| 55–59 and 50–54 yards, first vs last era | 55–59: 28.1% (18.6–40.1, n 64) vs 62.2% (57.3–66.9, n 389); 50–54: 57.1% (52.7–61.3, n 503) vs 72.9% (69.9–75.7, n 882) | Rise holds; ranges apart |
| Distance curve, every era above the one before | Holds at every two-yard step from 40 to 59 yards; two eras tie at 38 | Holds from 40 yards |
| Outdoor kicks only, 50+, first vs last era | 50.8% (n 441) vs 65.7% (n 828) | Rise holds |
| 60+ tries with 10 seconds or less left in a half | 128 of 164 since 1999; 15 of 22 in 2025 | Mostly heaves |
Continues below
| Test | Result | Verdict |
|---|---|---|
| 2024–25 vs 2021–23 make rate from 50+ | 69.4% (65.4–73.1) vs 67.9% (64.2–71.4); 95% ranges overlap | Noise |
| 2024–25 vs 2021–23 from 60+ | Tries per team-game 0.019 → 0.034; made 45.2% (n 31) vs 43.2% (n 37); 95% ranges overlap | Volume up; rate noise |
Frequently asked questions
What percentage of 50-yard field goals do NFL kickers make?
68.8% of tries from 50 yards or more in the 2025 regular season (183 of 266). In 1999 it was 48.8%.
Are NFL kickers getting better?
Kicks go in more often at the same distance than 25 years ago. From 55–59 yards it was 28.1% in 1999–2005 and 62.2% in 2020–2025. The rise holds outdoors as well as in domes. The 2024–25 rate is a little higher than 2021–23, by an amount that could be luck. The data can't say whether that's the kicker, the snap and hold, or teams choosing stronger legs.
What is the longest field goal in NFL history?
68 yards, by Cam Little of Jacksonville against the Raiders on Nov 2, 2025, the NFL record according to the Pro Football Hall of Fame and the longest make in the play-by-play since 1999. It broke Justin Tucker's 66-yarder from 2021. Little added a 67-yarder against Tennessee on Jan 4, 2026, the second-longest in NFL history according to an NFL post quoted by CBS Sports.
How often do NFL teams try 50-yard field goals?
0.49 times per team per game in 2025, about 3 times the 1999 rate. Kicks of 50+ were 24.4% of all field goal tries.
Do NFL teams punt or kick on fourth down from long range?
From 32–41 yards out on fourth down, teams tried a field goal 52.9% of the time in 2025 and punted 11.7%. In 1999 they kicked 19.4% and punted 49.2%.
More in Fourth down and beyond
Sources and method
- nflverse play-by-play, rosters, combine and schedules (CC-BY 4.0)
- Pro Football Hall of Fame: Cam Little sets NFL record with 68-yard field goal
- Fox News: Jaguars kicker breaks NFL record for longest made field goal (Nov 2025)
- CBS Sports: Cam Little makes 67-yard field goal, longest outdoor kick and second-longest in NFL history (Jan 4, 2026)
- Sports Illustrated: Justin Tucker sets NFL record with 66-yard field goal (Sept 26, 2021)
- ESPN: Brandon Aubrey kicks 65-yard field goal against Baltimore (Sept 22, 2024)
Research and analysis, not betting advice. Past results do not guarantee future returns; bet only what you can afford to lose.