Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W18 | Brady RussellRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Bijan RobinsonRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO, expected +0.3) | 25.2 | 7.3 | −17.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Chase BrownRB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1) | 19.8 | 19.0 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.4) | 5.9 | 15.3 | +9.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Scott MatlockRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Kenny McIntoshRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jaleel McLaughlinRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.4) | 5.2 | 6.8 | +1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Sean TuckerRB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 4.0 | -0.4 | −4.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Roschon JohnsonRB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.3) | 2.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Zach CharbonnetRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 10.2 | 18.7 | +8.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Chris CollierRB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Kendall MiltonRB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | George HolaniRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Carson SteeleRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.3) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Bucky IrvingRB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 11.9 | 10.8 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Tyrone Tracy Jr.RB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 15.4 | 27.9 | +12.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Keilan RobinsonRB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Kimani VidalRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1) | 6.6 | 2.0 | −4.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Dylan LaubeRB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Blake WatsonRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.4) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jacob KibodiRB CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Terrell JenningsRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Braelon AllenRB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.7) | 5.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Ray DavisRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 2.9 | 25.4 | +22.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Amar JohnsonRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jacardia WrightRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Brashard SmithRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.3) | 4.3 | 7.8 | +3.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Ashton JeantyRB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1) | 14.5 | 12.4 | −2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Dylan SampsonRB CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 5.8 | 6.4 | +0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Tahj BrooksRB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Kyle MonangaiRB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.3) | 10.8 | 5.9 | −4.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | LeQuint Allen Jr.RB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 3.4 | 0.0 | −3.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jacory Croskey-MerrittRB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.4) | 9.7 | 2.9 | −6.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Josh WilliamsRB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Raheim SandersRB CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 6.4 | 4.3 | −2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Nate CarterRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO, expected +0.3) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Robbie OuztsRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Cam SkatteboRB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 10.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Bhayshul TutenRB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 4.9 | 8.3 | +3.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | RJ HarveyRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.4) | 14.3 | 4.3 | −10.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | TreVeyon HendersonRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 13.3 | 17.3 | +4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Quinshon JudkinsRB CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 10.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Kyle JuszczykRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 3.5 | 9.4 | +5.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Derrick HenryRB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1) | 14.4 | 45.6 | +31.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Ezekiel ElliottRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.1) | 3.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Christian McCaffreyRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 24.5 | 28.1 | +3.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Patrick RicardRB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1) | 1.2 | 0.0 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | James ConnerRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 11.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Austin EkelerRB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 10.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Dare OgunbowaleRB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1) | 2.2 | 0.0 | −2.2 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Joe MixonRB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1) | 10.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Kareem HuntRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1) | 4.9 | 3.8 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | D'Onta ForemanRB CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1) | 3.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jeremy McNicholsRB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 4.8 | 4.0 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Chase EdmondsRB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 1.8 | 0.0 | −1.8 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Nick ChubbRB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1) | 4.7 | 0.1 | −4.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Saquon BarkleyRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 14.8 | 6.8 | −8.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Andrew BeckRB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.3) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Justice HillRB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1) | 3.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Khari BlasingameRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Miles SandersRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.1) | 6.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Devin SingletaryRB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.1) | 6.3 | 17.0 | +10.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Tony PollardRB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO, expected +0.1) | 11.9 | 11.5 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Trayveon WilliamsRB CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1) | 4.5 | 1.0 | −3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Myles GaskinRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.4) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Ty JohnsonRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1) | 5.4 | 7.8 | +2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Travis HomerRB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | D'Ernest JohnsonRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 1.4 | 0.5 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Josh JacobsRB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1) | 14.1 | 1.3 | −12.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jakob JohnsonRB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | JaMycal HastyRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Tony JonesRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Patrick TaylorRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 3.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Reggie GilliamRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | AJ DillonRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | D'Andre SwiftRB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 15.2 | 21.9 | +6.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Antonio GibsonRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 4.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Joshua KelleyRB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO, expected +0.1) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Cam AkersRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.4) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Elijah MitchellRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Kene NwangwuRB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.3) | 0.8 | 3.1 | +2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Rhamondre StevensonRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 14.9 | 27.2 | +12.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Khalil HerbertRB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.3) | 1.6 | 0.5 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Michael CarterRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 9.9 | 6.3 | −3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Javonte WilliamsRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.1) | 19.6 | 11.4 | −8.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Bam KnightRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 7.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Isiah PachecoRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1) | 6.5 | 3.2 | −3.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | James CookRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1) | 19.1 | 8.7 | −10.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Dameon PierceRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jerome FordRB CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1) | 3.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Brittain BrownRB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Malik DavisRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.1) | 3.7 | 10.3 | +6.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Julius ChestnutRB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO, expected +0.1) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Velus Jones Jr.RB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.4) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Brian RobinsonRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 4.7 | 3.8 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Tyrion Davis-PriceRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Pierre StrongRB CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Breece HallRB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.3) | 10.9 | 20.9 | +10.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.4) | 14.0 | 7.7 | −6.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse