Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth

Starters out on defense: every call

Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.

2024 backtest

716–1049–204

40.6% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.6% (95% 38.3%–42.9%) vs baseline 39.1%

2025 backtest

681–991–185

40.7% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.7% (95% 38.4%–43.1%) vs baseline 39.1%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

55–83–12

39.9% vs 39.4% baseline

Win rate 39.9% (95% 32.1%–48.2%) vs baseline 39.4%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
RB349–510–8740.6%38.2%
TE371–558–19439.9%39.1%
QB198–194–1950.5%49.6%
WR479–778–8938.1%36.3%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
flag716–1049–20440.6%39.1%
0.25–0.5651–959–18340.4%38.7%
0.5–129–31–248.3%48.3%
1+1–150.0%49.6%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQBRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Starters out on defense calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2026 W3Cedrick Wilson Jr.WR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)2.8––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3KhaDarel HodgeWR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1)2.00.0−2.0❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Malik TurnerWR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1)1.9––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Hunter RenfrowWR CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)4.3––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Deebo Samuel Sr.WR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1)14.515.4+0.9✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Dan ChisenaWR CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)1.6––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Dee EskridgeWR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)1.5––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3John Metchie IIIWR CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)3.09.9+6.9✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Jalen TolbertWR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)3.90.0−3.9❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Ryan MillerWR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)2.83.5+0.7✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Brycen TremayneWR CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)1.312.3+11.0✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Xavier LegetteWR CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)6.2––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Jacob CowingWR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1)1.00.0−1.0❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Jalen CokerWR CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)12.13.8−8.3❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Malik WashingtonWR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)12.011.1−0.9❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Tahj WashingtonWR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)3.1––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Ricky PearsallWR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1)12.7––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Tetairoa McMillanWR CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)15.93.7−12.2❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Jordan WatkinsWR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1)1.98.0+6.0✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Jimmy Horn Jr.WR CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)2.2––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Theo Wease Jr.WR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)5.7––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Dalevon CampbellWR CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)1.8––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3De'Zhaun StriblingWR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1)1.2––voidBacktest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Chris BellWR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)3.810.7+6.9✅Backtest (after the fact) ·
2026 W3Kevin Coleman Jr.WR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)2.51.3−1.2❌Backtest (after the fact) ·
2025 W18Brandin CooksWR BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.3)4.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Davante AdamsWR LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3)16.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Amari CooperWR BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.3)4.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Jamison CrowderWR WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.4)2.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Tyler LockettWR LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)5.71.5−4.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Chris MooreWR WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.4)2.40.0−2.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Robbie ChosenWR WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.4)3.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Laquon TreadwellWR INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1)0.20.0−0.2pushBacktest ·
2025 W18Zach PascalWR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Curtis SamuelWR BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.3)3.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Tim PatrickWR JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)3.61.4−2.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W18David MooreWR CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Noah BrownWR WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.4)3.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Zay JonesWR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1)3.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Cooper KuppWR SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)9.24.9−4.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Josh ReynoldsWR NYJBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.3)5.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18River CracraftWR WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.4)1.60.0−1.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Ray-Ray McCloudWR NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.4)4.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Trent SherfieldWR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Allen LazardWR NYJBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.3)2.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Brandon PowellWR MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Steven SimsWR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1)1.00.0−1.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Jakobi MeyersWR JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)13.79.4−4.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Hunter RenfrowWR CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)4.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Ashton DulinWR INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1)1.10.0−1.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Mecole HardmanWR BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.3)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Greg DortchWR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1)4.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Darius SlaytonWR NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.4)14.59.4−5.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Alex BachmanWR LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)0.70.0−0.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Parris CampbellWR DALBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)1.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Gunner OlszewskiWR NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.4)2.318.2+15.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Terry McLaurinWR WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.4)11.99.7−2.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Deebo Samuel Sr.WR WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.4)10.54.1−6.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Andre BaccelliaWR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Cody WhiteWR SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)2.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Dan ChisenaWR CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Isaiah HodginsWR NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.4)7.80.0−7.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Gabe DavisWR BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.3)4.915.1+10.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Michael PittmanWR INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1)8.63.1−5.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Justin JeffersonWR MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1)16.318.4+2.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W18K.J. OsbornWR WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.4)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18CeeDee LambWR DALBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)17.91.4−16.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Tyler JohnsonWR NYJBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.3)2.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Tim JonesWR JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Dyami BrownWR JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)3.81.8−2.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Ihmir Smith-MarsetteWR NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.4)2.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Simi FehokoWR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Brandon SmithWR NYJBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.3)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Austin TrammellWR JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)2.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Tutu AtwellWR LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3)3.72.9−0.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Terrace Marshall Jr.WR LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Elijah MooreWR BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.3)3.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Josh PalmerWR BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.3)4.81.1−3.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Dareke YoungWR SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)1.20.0−1.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W18George PickensWR DALBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)17.81.9−15.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Khalil ShakirWR BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.3)10.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Jalen NailorWR MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1)6.87.9+1.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Tay MartinWR WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.4)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Rashid ShaheedWR SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)7.71.2−6.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W18John Metchie IIIWR NYJBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.3)6.05.0−1.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Alec PierceWR INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1)8.429.2+20.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Jalen TolbertWR DALBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)6.10.0−6.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Garrett WilsonWR NYJBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.3)9.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Treylon BurksWR WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.4)4.83.2−1.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W18KaVontae TurpinWR DALBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)6.40.7−5.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Xavier SmithWR LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3)5.81.6−4.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)21.614.4−7.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Michael WilsonWR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1)12.320.9+8.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Tre TuckerWR LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)9.55.4−4.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Justin ShorterWR LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Parker WashingtonWR JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)12.219.7+7.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Jalen BrooksWR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1)1.90.0−1.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W18Tyrell ShaversWR BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.3)2.90.0−2.9voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Jalen CropperWR DALBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Jake BoboWR SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)0.70.0−0.7❌Backtest ·

NewerPage 2 of 27 · 2,627 callsOlder

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse