Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth

Starters out on defense: every call

Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.

2024 backtest

716–1049–204

40.6% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.6% (95% 38.3%–42.9%) vs baseline 39.1%

2025 backtest

681–991–185

40.7% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.7% (95% 38.4%–43.1%) vs baseline 39.1%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

55–83–12

39.9% vs 39.4% baseline

Win rate 39.9% (95% 32.1%–48.2%) vs baseline 39.4%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
RB349–510–8740.6%38.2%
TE371–558–19439.9%39.1%
QB198–194–1950.5%49.6%
WR479–778–8938.1%36.3%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
flag716–1049–20440.6%39.1%
0.25–0.5651–959–18340.4%38.7%
0.5–129–31–248.3%48.3%
1+1–150.0%49.6%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQBRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Starters out on defense calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2025 W18Brevyn Spann-FordTE DALBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)1.45.0+3.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Ray DavisRB BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)2.925.4+22.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Keon ColemanWR BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.3)7.68.9+1.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Brashard SmithRB KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.3)4.37.8+3.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Colston LovelandTE CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.0)10.925.1+14.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Dylan SampsonRB CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.3)5.86.4+0.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Keleki LatuTE BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0)0.56.1+5.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Brady CookQB NYJBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected −0.8)7.49.1+1.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Ben YurosekTE MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1)0.61.9+1.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Drake DabneyTE GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0)0.21.3+1.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Jaxson DartQB NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected −0.8)17.820.4+2.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W18Bhayshul TutenRB JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)4.98.3+3.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W18TreVeyon HendersonRB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)13.317.3+4.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Kyle JuszczykRB SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)3.59.4+5.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Stefon DiggsWR NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)20.422.1+1.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Tyler LockettWR LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)5.98.9+3.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Derrick HenryRB BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1)14.445.6+31.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Christian McCaffreyRB SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)24.528.1+3.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)3.75.1+1.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Dallas GoedertTE PHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.0)9.29.8+0.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Tanner HudsonTE CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.0)3.95.1+1.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Durham SmytheTE CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0)0.92.1+1.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Dante PettisWR NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)2.26.3+4.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Devin SingletaryRB NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.1)6.317.0+10.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Scott MillerWR PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)1.35.5+4.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Lil'Jordan HumphreyWR DENBoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)3.84.3+0.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Ty JohnsonRB BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1)5.47.8+2.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Dawson KnoxTE BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.0)6.58.0+1.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Juwan JohnsonTE NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)12.713.5+0.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W17D'Andre SwiftRB CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)15.221.9+6.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Kene NwangwuRB NYJBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.3)0.83.1+2.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Rhamondre StevensonRB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)14.927.2+12.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Ja'Marr ChaseWR CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1)21.025.0+4.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Michael BandyWR DENBoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)2.03.4+1.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Trevor LawrenceQB JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected −0.6)20.023.1+3.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Jake TongesTE SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.0)3.319.0+15.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Kevin Austin Jr.WR NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)3.915.2+11.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Chris OlaveWR NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)18.525.9+7.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Stone SmarttTE NYJBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1)2.23.8+1.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Malik DavisRB DALBoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.1)3.710.3+6.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Breece HallRB NYJBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.3)10.920.9+10.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Cade OttonTE TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0)6.27.3+1.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Xavier SmithWR LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)4.010.7+6.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Keaton MitchellRB BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1)4.05.8+1.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Quentin JohnstonWR LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1)9.014.8+5.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Josh WhyleTE GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.0)1.31.8+0.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Parker WashingtonWR JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.3)10.719.0+8.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Andrei IosivasWR CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1)6.28.1+1.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Hunter LuepkeRB DALBoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.1)2.35.4+3.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Shedrick JacksonWR LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)1.34.0+2.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Jordan AddisonWR MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.3)11.212.5+1.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Michael MayerTE LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.0)4.317.9+13.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Zach CharbonnetRB SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.4)9.226.2+17.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Brenden BatesTE CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0)0.92.9+2.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W17AJ BarnerTE SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)8.613.3+4.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Drake MayeQB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected −0.3)21.332.4+11.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Ben SinnottTE WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.0)1.45.9+4.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Caleb WilliamsQB CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected −0.3)18.023.0+5.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Brashard SmithRB KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1)2.49.5+7.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Colston LovelandTE CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0)10.421.4+11.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Kyle WilliamsWR NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)4.05.0+1.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Dylan SampsonRB CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)3.85.7+1.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Quinn EwersQB MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected −0.3)11.015.8+4.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Jacory Croskey-MerrittRB WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)8.922.5+13.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Moliki MatavaoTE NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)0.33.0+2.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Jahdae WalkerWR CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)3.15.0+1.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Theo Wease Jr.WR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)4.213.3+9.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Raheim SandersRB CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)2.94.1+1.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Efton Chism IIIWR NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)0.712.0+11.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Dont'e Thornton Jr.WR LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)2.43.2+0.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Woody MarksRB HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1)7.58.5+1.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Harold Fannin Jr.TE CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0)10.411.0+0.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Jaxson DartQB NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected −0.3)16.325.1+8.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Luther Burden IIIWR CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)10.127.8+17.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Tyler ShoughQB NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected −0.8)15.421.9+6.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Philip RiversQB INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected −0.3)13.817.1+3.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Aaron RodgersQB PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected −0.3)14.815.5+0.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Kirk CousinsQB ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected −0.3)14.917.6+2.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Adam ThielenWR PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.1)2.68.9+6.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Austin HooperTE NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.0)3.35.4+2.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Kalif RaymondWR DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)3.616.2+12.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Derrick HenryRB BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1)17.022.8+5.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Demarcus RobinsonWR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1)5.210.3+5.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Hunter HenryTE NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.0)10.115.5+5.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Jared GoffQB DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected −0.3)20.526.5+6.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Mo Alie-CoxTE INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0)1.53.6+2.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Anthony FirkserTE DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0)1.48.0+6.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Jeremy McNicholsRB WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1)4.55.2+0.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Mike GesickiTE CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0)7.912.5+4.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Scott MillerWR PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.1)0.74.9+4.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Drew SampleTE CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0)2.95.1+2.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Jauan JenningsWR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1)15.218.1+2.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Justin HerbertQB LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected −0.3)18.330.2+11.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Joe BurrowQB CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected −0.3)18.529.0+10.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Shane ZylstraTE DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0)0.65.0+4.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Rhamondre StevensonRB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1)11.417.8+6.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Kyle PittsTE ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.0)13.718.7+5.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Trevor LawrenceQB JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected −0.3)16.231.2+15.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Isiah PachecoRB KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)6.613.5+6.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Kevin Austin Jr.WR NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)2.63.8+1.1✅Backtest ·

NewerPage 2 of 15 · 1,452 callsOlder

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse