Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W14 | Sincere McCormickRB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 6.6 | 10.9 | +4.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Ronnie RiversRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 16.3 | 23.7 | +7.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Ben VanSumerenRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Bijan RobinsonRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 17.3 | 20.1 | +2.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Kendre MillerRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 3.5 | 9.2 | +5.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Tank BigsbyRB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 5.9 | 13.2 | +7.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Deuce VaughnRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Jordan MimsRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Chris BrooksRB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 4.4 | 0.3 | −4.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Hunter LuepkeRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 1.9 | 1.5 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Emanuel WilsonRB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 4.3 | 0.7 | −3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Zach EvansRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 19.3 | 19.3 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Chris CollierRB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Sione VakiRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Dylan LaubeRB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Blake CorumRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 2.7 | 3.4 | +0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Will ShipleyRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | MarShawn LloydRB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Kyle JuszczykRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 2.8 | -2.1 | −4.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Latavius MurrayRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 5.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Cordarrelle PattersonRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 2.6 | 8.3 | +5.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Raheem MostertRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 5.5 | 5.4 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jonathan WilliamsRB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Ezekiel ElliottRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 5.7 | 0.4 | −5.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Kenyan DrakeRB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Christian McCaffreyRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 15.2 | 8.7 | −6.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Alex ArmahRB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | James ConnerRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 15.5 | 11.1 | −4.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Leonard FournetteRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Dalvin CookRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jeremy McNicholsRB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 4.9 | 3.2 | −1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jeff WilsonRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 2.3 | 0.0 | −2.3 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Mike BooneRB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Boston ScottRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Nick BawdenRB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Chase EdmondsRB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 3.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Rashaad PennyRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Saquon BarkleyRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 21.7 | 19.7 | −2.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Khari BlasingameRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Alec IngoldRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 2.4 | 3.5 | +1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Miles SandersRB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 6.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Trayveon WilliamsRB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Ty JohnsonRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 4.0 | 4.7 | +0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Travis HomerRB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Josh JacobsRB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 18.8 | 21.7 | +2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Derrick GoreRB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | James RobinsonRB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Tony JonesRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 4.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jonathan WardRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Patrick TaylorRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Salvon AhmedRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Rico DowdleRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 13.0 | 21.3 | +8.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Reggie GilliamRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Zack MossRB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 10.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | AJ DillonRB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 6.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | D'Andre SwiftRB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 13.0 | 9.4 | −3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Darrynton EvansRB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | DeeJay DallasRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Chuba HubbardRB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 16.9 | 2.3 | −14.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Elijah MitchellRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Kene NwangwuRB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Chris EvansRB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Najee HarrisRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 13.6 | 24.9 | +11.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Khalil HerbertRB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 2.0 | 1.4 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Kenny GainwellRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 5.3 | 0.0 | −5.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Michael CarterRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 2.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jaylen WarrenRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 9.2 | 10.4 | +1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | James CookRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 16.9 | 19.0 | +2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Rachaad WhiteRB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 14.6 | 8.8 | −5.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Connor HeywardRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 1.3 | 0.0 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Raheem BlackshearRB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jordan MasonRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 5.4 | 7.8 | +2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Aaron ShampklinRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Velus Jones Jr.RB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Brian RobinsonRB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 15.3 | 17.9 | +2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Breece HallRB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 16.5 | 6.0 | −10.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Israel AbanikandaRB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 3.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Chase BrownRB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 15.3 | 19.0 | +3.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 4.4 | 15.4 | +11.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Deuce VaughnRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Chris BrooksRB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 3.7 | 4.9 | +1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Emari DemercadoRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 3.4 | 2.5 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Hunter LuepkeRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 1.9 | 0.4 | −1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Emanuel WilsonRB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 5.0 | 2.0 | −3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Sean TuckerRB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 4.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Roschon JohnsonRB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 5.2 | 0.0 | −5.2 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 14.7 | 21.0 | +6.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Kendall MiltonRB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jonathon BrooksRB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 1.2 | 7.1 | +5.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Bucky IrvingRB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 12.3 | 27.5 | +15.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Isaac GuerendoRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 2.3 | 8.6 | +6.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Will ShipleyRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 1.6 | 0.4 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Braelon AllenRB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 6.3 | 4.7 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Isaiah DavisRB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 1.7 | 12.2 | +10.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | MarShawn LloydRB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jaylen WrightRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 2.9 | 0.0 | −2.9 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Ray DavisRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 5.2 | 13.7 | +8.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Trey BensonRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 3.4 | 2.0 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse