Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth

Starters out on defense: every call

Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.

2024 backtest

716–1049–204

40.6% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.6% (95% 38.3%–42.9%) vs baseline 39.1%

2025 backtest

681–991–185

40.7% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.7% (95% 38.4%–43.1%) vs baseline 39.1%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

55–83–12

39.9% vs 39.4% baseline

Win rate 39.9% (95% 32.1%–48.2%) vs baseline 39.4%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
RB349–510–8740.6%38.2%
TE371–558–19439.9%39.1%
QB198–194–1950.5%49.6%
WR479–778–8938.1%36.3%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
flag716–1049–20440.6%39.1%
0.25–0.5651–959–18340.4%38.7%
0.5–129–31–248.3%48.3%
1+1–150.0%49.6%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQBRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Starters out on defense calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2025 W6Joshua CephusWR JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Roman WilsonWR PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)1.62.2+0.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W6Jordan WhittingtonWR LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1)4.35.3+1.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W6Marvin Harrison Jr.WR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.4)11.85.2−6.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W6Brian Thomas Jr.WR JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1)15.723.0+7.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W6Xavier WorthyWR KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.3)10.210.6+0.4pushBacktest ·
2025 W6Keon ColemanWR BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)11.64.1−7.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W6Malachi CorleyWR CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)1.00.0−1.0voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Gage LarvadainWR CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)0.74.2+3.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W6Konata MumpfieldWR LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1)0.41.7+1.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W6Jalen RoyalsWR KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.3)0.60.0−0.6voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Tory HortonWR SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)6.80.0−6.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W6Isaiah BondWR CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)5.12.9−2.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Robert WoodsWR HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.3)3.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Odell Beckham Jr.WR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)2.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Amari CooperWR BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1)5.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Tyler LockettWR TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3)4.87.6+2.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W5Sterling ShepardWR TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1)7.011.9+4.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W5Laquon TreadwellWR INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.1)1.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Tyler BoydWR TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3)5.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Tyreek HillWR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)14.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Zach PascalWR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.3)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Curtis SamuelWR BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1)5.010.6+5.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W5Zay JonesWR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.3)2.52.8+0.3pushBacktest ·
2025 W5Cooper KuppWR SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)10.911.9+1.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W5Chris Godwin Jr.WR TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1)14.25.6−8.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Justin WatsonWR HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.3)3.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Braxton BerriosWR HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.3)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Christian KirkWR HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.3)8.710.4+1.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W5Calvin RidleyWR TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3)9.518.1+8.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W5Steven SimsWR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.3)1.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Jakobi MeyersWR LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.3)14.47.2−7.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Ashton DulinWR INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.1)1.47.5+6.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W5Mecole HardmanWR BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Cody ThompsonWR TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1)1.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Diontae JohnsonWR HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.3)4.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Trenton IrwinWR CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.1)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Greg DortchWR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.3)4.23.2−1.0voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Alex BachmanWR LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.3)0.81.9+1.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W5Parris CampbellWR DALBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)3.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Cody WhiteWR SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)2.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5James ProcheWR TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Mason KinseyWR TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Nick Westbrook-IkhineWR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)3.00.0−3.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Kristian WilkersonWR LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.3)2.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Gabe DavisWR BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1)8.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Marquez CallawayWR TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Michael PittmanWR INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.1)16.914.9−2.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Tee HigginsWR CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.1)11.411.2−0.2pushBacktest ·
2025 W5Van JeffersonWR TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3)2.20.0−2.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W5DJ TurnerWR LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.3)3.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Nico CollinsWR HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.3)15.316.0+0.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W5Jaylen WaddleWR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)11.523.0+11.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W5Dee EskridgeWR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)1.30.0−1.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Simi FehokoWR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.3)5.90.0−5.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Ja'Marr ChaseWR CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.1)16.629.0+12.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W5Terrace Marshall Jr.WR LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.3)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Elijah MooreWR BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1)3.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Josh PalmerWR BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1)7.05.6−1.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Dareke YoungWR SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)0.84.6+3.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W5George PickensWR DALBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)19.013.7−5.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Khalil ShakirWR BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1)10.211.0+0.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W5Jalen VirgilWR BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Kendric PryorWR CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.1)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Jalen TolbertWR DALBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)9.50.0−9.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Erik EzukanmaWR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)1.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Grant DuBoseWR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)17.627.2+9.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W5Michael WilsonWR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.3)7.73.6−4.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Tre TuckerWR LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.3)9.811.1+1.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W5Charlie JonesWR CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.1)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Justin ShorterWR LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.3)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Xavier HutchinsonWR HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.3)3.916.8+12.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W5Andrei IosivasWR CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.1)4.213.2+9.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W5Jalen BrooksWR DALBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)3.80.0−3.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Tyrell ShaversWR BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1)1.70.0−1.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Jared WayneWR HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.3)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Jalen CropperWR DALBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)1.10.0−1.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Jake BoboWR SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)1.40.0−1.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Rakim JarrettWR TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1)1.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Ryan MillerWR TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1)2.10.0−2.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Mitchell TinsleyWR CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.1)2.00.0−2.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Tank DellWR HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.3)9.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Josh DownsWR INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.1)11.911.4−0.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Jonathan MingoWR DALBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)3.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Jha'Quan JacksonWR TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Ryan FlournoyWR DALBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)3.418.4+15.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W5Xavier WeaverWR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.3)2.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Ramel KeytonWR LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.3)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Kameron JohnsonWR TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1)0.50.2−0.3pushBacktest ·
2025 W5Jermaine BurtonWR CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.1)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Anthony GouldWR INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.1)1.30.0−1.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Marvin Harrison Jr.WR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.3)13.813.8+0.1pushBacktest ·
2025 W5Jalen McMillanWR TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1)7.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Malik WashingtonWR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)6.34.0−2.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Adonai MitchellWR INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.1)6.20.0−6.2voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Keon ColemanWR BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1)11.210.3−0.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Emeka EgbukaWR TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1)14.931.3+16.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W5Jayden HigginsWR HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.3)2.97.2+4.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W5Jaylin NoelWR HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.3)1.89.8+8.0✅Backtest ·

NewerPage 13 of 27 · 2,627 callsOlder

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse