Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W17 | Isaiah LikelyTE BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 8.9 | 7.9 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jake FergusonTE DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 8.3 | 2.8 | −5.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Xavier GipsonWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 1.5 | 0.0 | −1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Nikko RemigioWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Luke SchoonmakerTE DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 3.0 | 0.0 | −3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Kendre MillerRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 9.8 | 2.9 | −6.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Tank BigsbyRB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 6.4 | 3.3 | −3.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Darnell WashingtonTE PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 2.8 | 1.8 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Michael WilsonWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 8.2 | 6.9 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Dorian Thompson-RobinsonQB CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 10.4 | 3.8 | −6.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Josh WhyleTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX) | 3.0 | 0.0 | −3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Hunter LuepkeRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 1.9 | 1.1 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Rakim JarrettWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 2.9 | 2.1 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Brenton StrangeTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 5.2 | 0.0 | −5.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 15.1 | 5.8 | −9.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Trey PalmerWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 4.3 | 0.0 | −4.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Johnny WilsonWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 1.3 | 0.0 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Ja'Tavion SandersTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 4.4 | 1.5 | −2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jamari ThrashWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Keilan RobinsonRB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Isaiah WilliamsWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Brenden BatesTE CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Brevyn Spann-FordTE DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 1.4 | 0.0 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Kameron JohnsonWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 1.6 | 1.1 | −0.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | David Martin-RobinsonTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Ainias SmithWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 1.3 | 0.0 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jermaine BurtonWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 2.6 | 0.0 | −2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jaylen WrightRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 2.4 | 0.0 | −2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Michael Penix Jr.QB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS) | 12.6 | 11.2 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Aaron RodgersQB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 15.7 | 12.8 | −2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Matthew StaffordQB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 16.4 | 6.0 | −10.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Kyle JuszczykRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 4.5 | 3.6 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Travis KelceTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 13.1 | 8.0 | −5.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Amari CooperWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 7.8 | 2.0 | −5.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Nick VannettTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 1.9 | 0.0 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Demarcus RobinsonWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 6.8 | 0.0 | −6.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Kendrick BourneWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 5.7 | 3.8 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Mack HollinsWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 6.4 | 4.5 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Cooper KuppWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 13.1 | 5.4 | −7.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jamaal WilliamsRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 4.9 | 0.8 | −4.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jeff WilsonRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 1.9 | 1.2 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Mike BooneRB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 1.6 | 0.1 | −1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Courtland SuttonWR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 15.4 | 10.0 | −5.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Allen LazardWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 7.0 | 4.0 | −3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | DJ CharkWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 2.4 | 0.0 | −2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Lamar JacksonQB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 22.3 | 20.5 | −1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Josh AllenQB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 25.0 | 11.2 | −13.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Alec IngoldRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 1.6 | 0.4 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Tony PollardRB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 13.9 | 8.0 | −5.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Lil'Jordan HumphreyWR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 4.9 | 0.0 | −4.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | D'Ernest JohnsonRB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 3.0 | 1.8 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Dawson KnoxTE BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 4.9 | 4.2 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Patrick TaylorRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 4.0 | 3.5 | −0.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Juwan JohnsonTE NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 6.8 | 4.7 | −2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Collin JohnsonWR CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | D'Andre SwiftRB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 13.9 | 8.3 | −5.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Charlie WoernerTE ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 1.4 | 0.0 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Rashod BatemanWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 9.3 | 8.4 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Tylan WallaceWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 2.2 | 0.0 | −2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Noah GrayTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 5.8 | 2.0 | −3.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Adam PrenticeRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Tutu AtwellWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 5.3 | 2.2 | −3.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Kylen GransonTE IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 3.5 | 0.0 | −3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Khalil HerbertRB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 1.9 | 0.0 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Avery WilliamsRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Kyle PittsTE ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 8.1 | 1.7 | −6.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Travis EtienneRB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 12.0 | 5.7 | −6.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Trey SermonRB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 3.6 | 2.5 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Tyler GoodsonRB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 2.7 | 2.2 | −0.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Isiah PachecoRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 8.6 | 3.5 | −5.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Rachaad WhiteRB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 15.2 | 11.0 | −4.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Khalil ShakirWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 11.9 | 4.2 | −7.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Tyler AllgeierRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 7.7 | 4.1 | −3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Andrew OgletreeTE IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 1.7 | 0.0 | −1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Garrett WilsonWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 14.1 | 11.4 | −2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Trey McBrideTE ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 17.0 | 5.0 | −12.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Xavier SmithWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Will MalloryTE IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Quentin JohnstonWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 11.3 | 4.8 | −6.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Luke SchoonmakerTE DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 3.2 | 1.3 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Kendre MillerRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 10.2 | 5.1 | −5.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Josh WhyleTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 3.2 | 0.0 | −3.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Chase BrownRB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 20.4 | 13.9 | −6.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Julian HillTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 2.2 | 0.0 | −2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Dalton KincaidTE BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 9.1 | 5.5 | −3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Tyler ScottWR CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Roschon JohnsonRB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 4.6 | 0.3 | −4.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Elijah HigginsTE ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 2.5 | 0.0 | −2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Zay FlowersWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 16.9 | 15.3 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Puka NacuaWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 16.9 | 13.6 | −3.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 29.0 | 25.4 | −3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Carson SteeleRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 1.8 | 0.0 | −1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Ja'Tavion SandersTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 5.3 | 0.0 | −5.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Spencer RattlerQB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 9.6 | 4.9 | −4.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Brevyn Spann-FordTE DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 1.5 | 0.0 | −1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Tip ReimanTE ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 1.3 | 0.0 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Blake CorumRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 3.6 | 1.4 | −2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jordan WhittingtonWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 2.2 | 0.0 | −2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Devin CulpTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Devontez WalkerWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 1.8 | 0.0 | −1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse