Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth

Starters out on defense: every call

Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.

2024 backtest

716–1049–204

40.6% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.6% (95% 38.3%–42.9%) vs baseline 39.1%

2025 backtest

681–991–185

40.7% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.7% (95% 38.4%–43.1%) vs baseline 39.1%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

55–83–12

39.9% vs 39.4% baseline

Win rate 39.9% (95% 32.1%–48.2%) vs baseline 39.4%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
RB349–510–8740.6%38.2%
TE371–558–19439.9%39.1%
QB198–194–1950.5%49.6%
WR479–778–8938.1%36.3%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
flag716–1049–20440.6%39.1%
0.25–0.5651–959–18340.4%38.7%
0.5–129–31–248.3%48.3%
1+1–150.0%49.6%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQBRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Starters out on defense calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2025 W7Avery WilliamsRB ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Trey SermonRB PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1)2.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Dameon PierceRB KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.3)2.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Teagan QuitorianoTE ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0)0.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7James MitchellTE CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Ko KieftTE TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.0)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Zaire Mitchell-PadenTE NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.0)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Stone SmarttTE NYJBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.0)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Tay MartinWR WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.3)3.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Ronnie RiversRB LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)6.30.0−6.3voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Peyton HendershotTE KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.0)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Aaron ShampklinRB PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Treylon BurksWR WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.3)4.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Tyrion Davis-PriceRB PHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.1)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Skyy MooreWR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)0.92.5+1.6voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Erik EzukanmaWR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Thomas OdukoyaTE TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0)0.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Will MalloryTE INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Evan HullRB NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Zack KuntzTE NYJBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.0)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Ben VanSumerenRB PHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.1)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Grant DuBoseWR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)1.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Kendre MillerRB NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)5.10.7−4.4voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Derius DavisWR LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.3)1.70.0−1.7voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Jordan MimsRB NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)3.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Rakim JarrettWR TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.4)2.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Trey PalmerWR TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.4)3.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Baylor CuppTE KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.0)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Carson SteeleRB KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.3)2.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Jacob CowingWR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)1.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Audric EstiméRB NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)1.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Jase McClellanRB ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)2.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Brenden RiceWR LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.3)2.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Jaheim BellTE NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.0)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Treyton WelchTE NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.0)0.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Dallin HolkerTE NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.0)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Jaylen JohnsonWR LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.3)2.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Cody SchraderRB LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)1.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Braelon AllenRB NYJBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)4.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Jared WileyTE KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.0)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Jalen McMillanWR TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.4)9.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Tahj WashingtonWR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Kaleb JohnsonRB PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1)2.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7KeAndre Lambert-SmithWR LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.3)1.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Moliki MatavaoTE NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.0)0.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Ja'Corey BrooksWR WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.3)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Ulysses Bentley IVRB INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Nate CarterRB ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)2.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Marcedes LewisTE DENBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0)0.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Jordan MatthewsTE CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Amari CooperWR BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)5.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Eric TomlinsonTE LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Chris ConleyWR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)2.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Zach PascalWR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.4)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Curtis SamuelWR BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)4.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Trent TaylorWR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)2.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Mike WilliamsWR PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)5.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Jeff WilsonRB MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Gus EdwardsRB LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)5.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Mike BooneRB CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)3.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Tyler ConklinTE LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0)3.30.0−3.3voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Russell GageWR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Hayden HurstTE LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Malik TurnerWR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Steven SimsWR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.4)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Mecole HardmanWR BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)2.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Kyler MurrayQB ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected −0.8)14.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Trayveon WilliamsRB LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Cody WhiteWR SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)2.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Gabe DavisWR BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)9.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Colby ParkinsonTE LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.0)3.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Zack MossRB CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1)5.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Brandon AiyukWR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)13.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Joshua KelleyRB TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.1)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Stephen SullivanTE CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Tim JonesWR JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Quintin MorrisTE JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.0)0.50.0−0.5voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Zach DavidsonTE NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.0)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Austin TrammellWR JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1)2.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Tutu AtwellWR LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1)4.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Jaelon DardenWR CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Najee HarrisRB LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)4.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Kadarius ToneyWR CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Avery WilliamsRB ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Justyn RossWR KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.3)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Greg DulcichTE MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.0)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Montrell WashingtonWR KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.3)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Mike WoodsWR CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)5.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Ko KieftTE TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Tanner ConnerTE MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.0)2.41.8−0.6voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Kaden DavisWR CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Brandon JohnsonWR PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Jalen VirgilWR BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Raheem BlackshearRB CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Lucas KrullTE DENBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0)2.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Ronnie RiversRB LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1)6.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Julius ChestnutRB TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.1)1.50.0−1.5voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Skyy MooreWR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)1.20.0−1.2voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Thomas OdukoyaTE TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.0)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Eric GrayRB NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.3)1.5––voidBacktest ·

NewerPage 13 of 30 · 2,909 callsOlder

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse