Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W11 | Isaac GuerendoRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 3.2 | 0.0 | −3.2 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Kimani VidalRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Dylan LaubeRB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Blake CorumRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 2.4 | 3.8 | +1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Raheem MostertRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 8.9 | 5.4 | −3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Matt BreidaRB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Jeff WilsonRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Jason CabindaRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Gus EdwardsRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 4.6 | 5.5 | +0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Royce FreemanRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Alec IngoldRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Devine OzigboRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Devin SingletaryRB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 8.2 | 5.5 | −2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Craig ReynoldsRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Travis HomerRB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Darrell HendersonRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 6.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | David MontgomeryRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 12.8 | 12.6 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Jakob JohnsonRB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Salvon AhmedRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | J.K. DobbinsRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 17.0 | 8.5 | −8.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | D'Andre SwiftRB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 16.4 | 7.5 | −8.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Darrynton EvansRB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 3.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Deon JacksonRB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Jashaun CorbinRB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Ronnie RiversRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Hassan HaskinsRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 1.1 | 6.4 | +5.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 19.2 | 11.2 | −8.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Isaiah SpillerRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Eric GrayRB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 2.5 | 0.0 | −2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Scott MatlockRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Roschon JohnsonRB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 6.2 | 1.1 | −5.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 17.0 | 10.2 | −6.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Zach EvansRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 18.9 | 12.8 | −6.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Dante MillerRB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Sione VakiRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Tyrone Tracy Jr.RB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 13.2 | 15.4 | +2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Kimani VidalRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Blake CorumRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 2.5 | 2.5 | −0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Jaylen WrightRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 3.3 | 0.3 | −3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Latavius MurrayRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 5.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Damien WilliamsRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Michael BurtonRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 1.1 | -0.1 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Dwayne WashingtonRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | James ConnerRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 15.9 | 14.9 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Leonard FournetteRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Alvin KamaraRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 26.4 | 27.5 | +1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Jamaal WilliamsRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 4.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Gus EdwardsRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 4.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Royce FreemanRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Ty JohnsonRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 3.6 | 2.3 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Darrell HendersonRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 6.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | JaMycal HastyRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 2.4 | 0.7 | −1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Tony JonesRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | J.K. DobbinsRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 16.1 | 24.5 | +8.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Jonathan TaylorRB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 12.3 | 8.9 | −3.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Antonio GibsonRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 5.8 | 2.1 | −3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 7.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | DeeJay DallasRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 1.6 | 0.2 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Adam PrenticeRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Rhamondre StevensonRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 12.4 | 22.4 | +10.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Michael CarterRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Trey SermonRB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 4.0 | 2.3 | −1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Javonte WilliamsRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 12.3 | 10.4 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Tyler BadieRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Tyler GoodsonRB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 3.6 | 0.0 | −3.6 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | James CookRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 17.1 | 11.9 | −5.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Kevin HarrisRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Keaontay IngramRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 4.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Ronnie RiversRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Hassan HaskinsRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 19.5 | 10.5 | −9.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Isaiah SpillerRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 17.4 | 13.7 | −3.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Evan HullRB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Brady RussellRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Scott MatlockRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Kenny McIntoshRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Jordan MimsRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 3.0 | 4.8 | +1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Emari DemercadoRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 3.7 | 16.0 | +12.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Jaleel McLaughlinRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 5.7 | 5.0 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | SaRodorick Thompson Jr.RB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Zach EvansRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Zach CharbonnetRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 9.3 | 5.3 | −4.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Audric EstiméRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 1.2 | 3.5 | +2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Kimani VidalRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 3.0 | 0.7 | −2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Blake WatsonRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Blake CorumRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 3.0 | -0.1 | −3.1 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Terrell JenningsRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Ray DavisRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 6.4 | 17.0 | +10.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Trey BensonRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 2.4 | 12.5 | +10.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Brandon BoldenRB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Kyle JuszczykRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 3.3 | 1.7 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Latavius MurrayRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 4.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Damien WilliamsRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Michael BurtonRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 1.1 | 3.8 | +2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Ameer AbdullahRB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 3.6 | 2.1 | −1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Dwayne WashingtonRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | C.J. HamRB MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Christian McCaffreyRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 16.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse