Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth

Starters out on defense: every call

Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.

2024 backtest

716–1049–204

40.6% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.6% (95% 38.3%–42.9%) vs baseline 39.1%

2025 backtest

681–991–185

40.7% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.7% (95% 38.4%–43.1%) vs baseline 39.1%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

55–83–12

39.9% vs 39.4% baseline

Win rate 39.9% (95% 32.1%–48.2%) vs baseline 39.4%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
RB349–510–8740.6%38.2%
TE371–558–19439.9%39.1%
QB198–194–1950.5%49.6%
WR479–778–8938.1%36.3%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
flag716–1049–20440.6%39.1%
0.25–0.5651–959–18340.4%38.7%
0.5–129–31–248.3%48.3%
1+1–150.0%49.6%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQBRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Starters out on defense calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2024 W5Jaleel McLaughlinRB DENBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV)6.411.5+5.1✅Backtest ·
2024 W5Roschon JohnsonRB CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR)6.414.5+8.1✅Backtest ·
2024 W5Zay FlowersWR BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs CIN)13.219.0+5.8✅Backtest ·
2024 W5Brock BowersTE LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs DEN)12.123.7+11.7✅Backtest ·
2024 W5Cade StoverTE HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF)0.92.6+1.7✅Backtest ·
2024 W5Isaac GuerendoRB SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI)1.42.2+0.8✅Backtest ·
2024 W5Tyrone Tracy Jr.RB NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA)6.114.0+7.9✅Backtest ·
2024 W5Brevyn Spann-FordTE DALBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT)0.84.0+3.2✅Backtest ·
2024 W5Bo NixQB DENBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV)13.723.1+9.4✅Backtest ·
2024 W5Jordan WhittingtonWR LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB)6.615.9+9.3✅Backtest ·
2024 W5Theo JohnsonTE NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA)3.89.8+6.0✅Backtest ·
2024 W5Brian Thomas Jr.WR JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND)12.423.2+10.8✅Backtest ·
2024 W5Caleb WilliamsQB CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR)14.423.6+9.1✅Backtest ·
2024 W4Travis KelceTE KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC)9.515.9+6.4✅Backtest ·
2024 W4Geno SmithQB SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs DET)14.921.6+6.7✅Backtest ·
2024 W4Cordarrelle PattersonRB PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND)4.68.2+3.6✅Backtest ·
2024 W4Dare OgunbowaleRB HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX)3.015.4+12.3✅Backtest ·
2024 W4Jeremy McNicholsRB WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI)1.020.4+19.4✅Backtest ·
2024 W4Sam DarnoldQB MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB)14.420.5+6.1✅Backtest ·
2024 W4Tony PollardRB TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA)11.818.8+7.0✅Backtest ·
2024 W4Darius SlaytonWR NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL)5.98.6+2.7✅Backtest ·
2024 W4David MontgomeryRB DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA)11.915.0+3.1✅Backtest ·
2024 W4JaMycal HastyRB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF)0.71.5+0.8✅Backtest ·
2024 W4Jonathan TaylorRB INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT)14.219.8+5.6✅Backtest ·
2024 W4Justin JeffersonWR MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB)17.720.5+2.8✅Backtest ·
2024 W4Antonio GibsonRB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF)5.310.9+5.5✅Backtest ·
2024 W4Noah GrayTE KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC)3.48.0+4.6✅Backtest ·
2024 W4Brock WrightTE DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA)2.53.3+0.8✅Backtest ·
2024 W4Justin FieldsQB PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND)15.932.0+16.0✅Backtest ·
2024 W4Trevor LawrenceQB JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU)13.214.8+1.5✅Backtest ·
2024 W4George PickensWR PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND)15.116.3+1.2✅Backtest ·
2024 W4Tyler AllgeierRB ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs NO)6.510.0+3.5✅Backtest ·
2024 W4Jerome FordRB CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV)13.415.5+2.1✅Backtest ·
2024 W4Andrew OgletreeTE INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT)1.48.5+7.1✅Backtest ·
2024 W4Brian RobinsonRB WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI)17.420.3+2.9✅Backtest ·
2024 W4Jeremy RuckertTE NYJBoost (Starters out on defense vs DEN)2.33.0+0.7✅Backtest ·
2024 W4Wan'Dale RobinsonWR NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL)9.018.1+9.1✅Backtest ·
2024 W4Kenneth Walker IIIRB SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs DET)9.833.6+23.9✅Backtest ·
2024 W4Blake WhiteheartTE CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV)0.610.3+9.7✅Backtest ·
2024 W4Jordan AddisonWR MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB)9.322.9+13.6✅Backtest ·
2024 W4Tyjae SpearsRB TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA)6.511.9+5.4✅Backtest ·
2024 W4Sam LaPortaTE DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA)8.39.3+1.0✅Backtest ·
2024 W4Jahmyr GibbsRB DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA)16.519.8+3.3✅Backtest ·
2024 W4Malik NabersWR NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL)16.323.1+6.8✅Backtest ·
2024 W4Cade StoverTE HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX)0.63.7+3.1✅Backtest ·
2024 W4AJ BarnerTE SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs DET)1.510.7+9.2✅Backtest ·
2024 W4Erick AllTE CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR)3.96.8+2.9✅Backtest ·
2024 W4Jaylen WrightRB MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN)1.73.2+1.5✅Backtest ·
2024 W4Xavier WorthyWR KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC)8.016.3+8.3✅Backtest ·
2024 W3Miles SandersRB CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV)5.311.0+5.7✅Backtest ·
2024 W3Chuba HubbardRB CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV)10.627.9+17.3✅Backtest ·
2024 W3Tommy TrembleTE CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV)3.55.9+2.4✅Backtest ·

NewerPage 15 of 15 · 1,452 calls

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse