Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W8 | Aaron JonesRB MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 18.1 | 11.5 | −6.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | James ConnerRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 14.7 | 14.9 | +0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Leonard FournetteRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Jason CabindaRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Nick BawdenRB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Royce FreemanRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Alexander MattisonRB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 9.8 | 9.4 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Devine OzigboRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Tony PollardRB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 15.2 | 14.7 | −0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Myles GaskinRB MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Ty JohnsonRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 3.5 | 0.0 | −3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Craig ReynoldsRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 1.4 | 0.3 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | D'Ernest JohnsonRB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 5.1 | 3.3 | −1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Damien HarrisRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Darrell HendersonRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 6.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | David MontgomeryRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 13.3 | 14.9 | +1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Tony JonesRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Jonathan WardRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 1.5 | 0.0 | −1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Patrick TaylorRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 3.4 | 0.9 | −2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Reggie GilliamRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Jonathan TaylorRB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 12.5 | 18.7 | +6.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Anthony McFarlandRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Joshua KelleyRB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Cam AkersRB MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 4.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | DeeJay DallasRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Ke'Shawn VaughnRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Elijah MitchellRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 4.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Kene NwangwuRB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Najee HarrisRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 14.9 | 16.1 | +1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Michael CarterRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Travis EtienneRB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 11.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Trey SermonRB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 7.0 | 2.4 | −4.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Javonte WilliamsRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 15.7 | 9.2 | −6.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Tyler BadieRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 3.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Tyler GoodsonRB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 5.8 | 0.0 | −5.8 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Jaylen WarrenRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 9.1 | 7.9 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | James CookRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 14.6 | 28.3 | +13.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Ty ChandlerRB MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 6.4 | 0.0 | −6.4 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Keaontay IngramRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 4.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Connor HeywardRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 2.1 | 0.0 | −2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Tyreik McAllisterRB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Jordan MasonRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 14.6 | 1.8 | −12.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Ronnie RiversRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Julius ChestnutRB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 1.5 | 3.2 | +1.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Aaron ShampklinRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 18.1 | 22.6 | +4.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Zamir WhiteRB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 5.9 | -0.1 | −6.0 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Breece HallRB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 17.6 | 9.9 | −7.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 16.0 | 8.5 | −7.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Israel AbanikandaRB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Evan HullRB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Brady RussellRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Tank BigsbyRB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 10.1 | 10.6 | +0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Kenny McIntoshRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Emari DemercadoRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 3.7 | 0.0 | −3.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Jaleel McLaughlinRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 7.1 | 12.6 | +5.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | SaRodorick Thompson Jr.RB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Tyjae SpearsRB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 6.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Zach EvansRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 19.9 | 20.3 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Zach CharbonnetRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 8.3 | 11.4 | +3.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Isaac GuerendoRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 3.2 | 19.2 | +16.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Sione VakiRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Audric EstiméRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 2.2 | 0.4 | −1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Dylan LaubeRB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Blake WatsonRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Blake CorumRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 2.9 | 2.8 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Braelon AllenRB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 5.8 | 9.2 | +3.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Isaiah DavisRB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Ray DavisRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 6.1 | 2.9 | −3.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Trey BensonRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 2.5 | 1.0 | −1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Kyle JuszczykRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 4.3 | 1.4 | −2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Michael BurtonRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Raheem MostertRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 10.1 | 3.0 | −7.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Dwayne WashingtonRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | C.J. HamRB MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Jonathan WilliamsRB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Kenyan DrakeRB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Christian McCaffreyRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 15.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Aaron JonesRB MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 15.7 | 20.6 | +4.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Alex ArmahRB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Austin EkelerRB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 14.3 | 4.0 | −10.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Jeremy McNicholsRB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 4.9 | 4.2 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Jeff WilsonRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Jason CabindaRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Boston ScottRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Rashaad PennyRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Royce FreemanRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 3.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Saquon BarkleyRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 15.4 | 26.7 | +11.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Andrew BeckRB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 1.4 | 0.0 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Khari BlasingameRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Alec IngoldRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 1.6 | 1.4 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Devine OzigboRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Myles GaskinRB MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Craig ReynoldsRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 1.3 | 0.0 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Darrell HendersonRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 7.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | David MontgomeryRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 11.3 | 8.0 | −3.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Josh JacobsRB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 14.9 | 20.2 | +5.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Derrick GoreRB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | James RobinsonRB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse