Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W8 | Brandon PowellWR MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 2.6 | 0.0 | −2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Ashton DulinWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Olamide ZaccheausWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 5.4 | 0.0 | −5.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Scott MillerWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Greg DortchWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 5.3 | 1.9 | −3.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Ty JohnsonRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 3.5 | 0.0 | −3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Craig ReynoldsRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 1.4 | 0.3 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Alex BachmanWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | D'Ernest JohnsonRB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 5.1 | 3.3 | −1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Noah FantTE SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 7.3 | 5.2 | −2.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Jonathan WardRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 1.5 | 0.0 | −1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Patrick TaylorRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 3.4 | 0.9 | −2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Colby ParkinsonTE LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 8.7 | 3.7 | −5.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Michael PittmanWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 12.2 | 2.6 | −9.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Josiah DeguaraTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Jaylen WaddleWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 11.8 | 8.5 | −3.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Dyami BrownWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 3.0 | 1.6 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Simi FehokoWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 5.6 | 0.0 | −5.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Kylen GransonTE IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 2.4 | 1.4 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Jaelon DardenWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 1.2 | 0.0 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Luke FarrellTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 1.3 | 0.0 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Pat FreiermuthTE PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 7.5 | 3.9 | −3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 18.2 | 8.7 | −9.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Trey SermonRB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 7.0 | 2.4 | −4.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Josh PalmerWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 10.5 | 9.2 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Javonte WilliamsRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 15.7 | 9.2 | −6.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Tommy TrembleTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 3.9 | 3.3 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Dareke YoungWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Jaylen WarrenRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 9.1 | 7.9 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Drake LondonWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 16.6 | 7.4 | −9.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | George PickensWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 15.1 | 11.4 | −3.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Jalen NailorWR MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 6.5 | 3.6 | −2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Andrew OgletreeTE IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 1.9 | 0.0 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Connor HeywardRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 2.1 | 0.0 | −2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Stone SmarttTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 2.3 | 0.0 | −2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Jordan MasonRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 14.6 | 1.8 | −12.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Lucas KrullTE DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 4.4 | 3.8 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Alec PierceWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 7.5 | 2.1 | −5.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Breece HallRB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 17.6 | 9.9 | −7.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 16.0 | 8.5 | −7.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Will MalloryTE IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 14.3 | 12.9 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Tre TuckerWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 8.8 | 5.3 | −3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Justin ShorterWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Emari DemercadoRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 3.7 | 0.0 | −3.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Jake BoboWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 3.3 | 2.5 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Jordan AddisonWR MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 11.2 | 4.2 | −7.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Payne DurhamTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Davis AllenTE LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 1.3 | 0.0 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | C.J. StroudQB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 17.3 | 12.4 | −4.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Anthony RichardsonQB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 14.9 | 11.5 | −3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Luke McCaffreyWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 3.5 | 1.8 | −1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Ja'Tavion SandersTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 6.7 | 1.7 | −5.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Sione VakiRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Audric EstiméRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 2.2 | 0.4 | −1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Spencer RattlerQB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 12.8 | 6.2 | −6.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Mason TiptonWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 5.2 | 3.4 | −1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Ray DavisRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 6.1 | 2.9 | −3.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Malik WashingtonWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 2.7 | 0.0 | −2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Adonai MitchellWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 5.3 | 1.9 | −3.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Ben SinnottTE WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Trey BensonRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 2.5 | 1.0 | −1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Kirk CousinsQB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 18.1 | 7.2 | −11.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Kyle JuszczykRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 4.3 | 1.4 | −2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Odell Beckham Jr.WR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 2.6 | 0.0 | −2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Nelson AgholorWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 6.2 | 3.0 | −3.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | MyCole PruittTE PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 1.4 | 0.0 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Michael BurtonRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Raheem MostertRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 10.1 | 3.0 | −7.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | C.J. HamRB MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Tyreek HillWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 13.9 | 2.3 | −11.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Mo Alie-CoxTE IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 4.9 | 0.0 | −4.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Zach PascalWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Pharaoh BrownTE SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Deshaun WatsonQB CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 13.8 | 5.1 | −8.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Mack HollinsWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 5.7 | 0.0 | −5.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Noah BrownWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 11.0 | 2.6 | −8.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Austin EkelerRB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 14.3 | 4.0 | −10.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Evan EngramTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 11.2 | 8.5 | −2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Jeremy McNicholsRB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 4.9 | 4.2 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Ray-Ray McCloudWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 10.0 | 2.9 | −7.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Tanner HudsonTE CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 3.8 | 0.0 | −3.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Durham SmytheTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 3.3 | 0.0 | −3.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Mike GesickiTE CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 4.4 | 1.2 | −3.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | KhaDarel HodgeWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Andrew BeckRB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 1.4 | 0.0 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Scott MillerWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Craig ReynoldsRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 1.3 | 0.0 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Alex BachmanWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 2.4 | 0.0 | −2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Drew SampleTE CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 2.3 | 0.0 | −2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | David MontgomeryRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 11.3 | 8.0 | −3.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Tyler HuntleyQB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 13.9 | 9.5 | −4.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Kristian WilkersonWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 4.8 | 0.0 | −4.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Jordan LoveQB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 17.6 | 16.8 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Darnell MooneyWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 13.9 | 9.6 | −4.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Josiah DeguaraTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Jerry JeudyWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 13.2 | 2.8 | −10.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Adam TrautmanTE DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 2.4 | 0.0 | −2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Charlie WoernerTE ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Joe BurrowQB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 17.3 | 14.9 | −2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse