Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W17 | Eric GrayRB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.1) | 1.8 | 0.0 | −1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Keaton MitchellRB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1) | 4.0 | 5.8 | +1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Brady RussellRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.4) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Tank BigsbyRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 3.8 | 1.9 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 6.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Deuce VaughnRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.1) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Kenny McIntoshRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.4) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Chris BrooksRB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1) | 2.2 | 2.1 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Emari DemercadoRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 5.2 | 4.0 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Hunter LuepkeRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.1) | 2.3 | 5.4 | +3.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Emanuel WilsonRB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1) | 5.5 | 3.4 | −2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Roschon JohnsonRB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Tyjae SpearsRB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO, expected +0.1) | 8.2 | 1.1 | −7.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Zach CharbonnetRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.4) | 9.2 | 26.2 | +17.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | George HolaniRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.4) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Carson SteeleRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Isaac GuerendoRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 3.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Tyrone Tracy Jr.RB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.1) | 14.0 | 6.7 | −7.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jawhar JordanRB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1) | 8.5 | 3.6 | −4.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | British BrooksRB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jacob KibodiRB CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Will ShipleyRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 1.4 | 0.2 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Terrell JenningsRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Braelon AllenRB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.3) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Rasheen AliRB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1) | 2.4 | 2.8 | +0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Isaiah DavisRB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.3) | 4.1 | 3.0 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Ray DavisRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1) | 2.9 | 2.6 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Trey BensonRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 5.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jacardia WrightRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.4) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Brashard SmithRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1) | 2.4 | 9.5 | +7.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Dylan SampsonRB CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1) | 3.8 | 5.7 | +1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jordan JamesRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Kalel MullingsRB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO, expected +0.1) | 0.7 | 0.4 | −0.3 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Kyle MonangaiRB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 9.3 | 7.7 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jacory Croskey-MerrittRB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 8.9 | 22.5 | +13.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Raheim SandersRB CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1) | 2.9 | 4.1 | +1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Corey KinerRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 2.4 | 0.2 | −2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Woody MarksRB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1) | 7.5 | 8.5 | +1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Jaydon BlueRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.1) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Robbie OuztsRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.4) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Cam SkatteboRB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.1) | 9.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | TreVeyon HendersonRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 13.5 | 8.2 | −5.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Quinshon JudkinsRB CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1) | 10.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Raheem MostertRB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1) | 1.9 | 1.9 | +0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Ameer AbdullahRB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 4.0 | 1.4 | −2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Derrick HenryRB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1) | 17.0 | 22.8 | +5.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Patrick RicardRB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Austin EkelerRB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1) | 9.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Kareem HuntRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 10.0 | 0.2 | −9.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Jeremy McNicholsRB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1) | 4.5 | 5.2 | +0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Jeff WilsonRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Gus EdwardsRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 2.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Alexander MattisonRB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1) | 4.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Justice HillRB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1) | 4.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Alec IngoldRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 1.7 | 1.9 | +0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Craig ReynoldsRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Travis HomerRB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.3) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | D'Ernest JohnsonRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1) | 1.4 | 0.0 | −1.4 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | David MontgomeryRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1) | 11.3 | 1.4 | −9.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Josh JacobsRB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 14.4 | 4.8 | −9.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | JaMycal HastyRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Jonathan TaylorRB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 18.1 | 16.9 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | D'Andre SwiftRB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.3) | 14.6 | 9.0 | −5.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Darrynton EvansRB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.3) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Antonio GibsonRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1) | 3.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Elijah MitchellRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Jermar JeffersonRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1) | 2.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Jaret PattersonRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Rhamondre StevensonRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1) | 11.4 | 17.8 | +6.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Najee HarrisRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 3.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Tyler GoodsonRB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 1.3 | 0.9 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Isiah PachecoRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 6.6 | 13.5 | +6.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Rachaad WhiteRB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.4) | 7.5 | 8.0 | +0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Dameon PierceRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Brittain BrownRB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.3) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Sincere McCormickRB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Hassan HaskinsRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 1.7 | 1.4 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Zamir WhiteRB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Keaton MitchellRB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1) | 4.8 | 1.3 | −3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Owen WrightRB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.4) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1) | 4.9 | 13.9 | +9.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Scott MatlockRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Chris BrooksRB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 2.5 | 0.4 | −2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Emanuel WilsonRB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 6.7 | 8.2 | +1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Jacob SaylorsRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Sean TuckerRB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.4) | 4.3 | 6.3 | +2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Roschon JohnsonRB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.3) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 19.1 | 18.0 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1) | 25.5 | 22.8 | −2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Chris CollierRB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Carson SteeleRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Bucky IrvingRB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.4) | 12.5 | 7.1 | −5.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Sione VakiRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Kimani VidalRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 10.6 | 1.1 | −9.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Dylan LaubeRB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Terrell JenningsRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Rasheen AliRB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1) | 2.8 | 2.2 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Jaylen WrightRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 3.6 | 12.3 | +8.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Amar JohnsonRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse