Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth

Starters out on defense: every call

Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.

2024 backtest

716–1049–204

40.6% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.6% (95% 38.3%–42.9%) vs baseline 39.1%

2025 backtest

681–991–185

40.7% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.7% (95% 38.4%–43.1%) vs baseline 39.1%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

55–83–12

39.9% vs 39.4% baseline

Win rate 39.9% (95% 32.1%–48.2%) vs baseline 39.4%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
RB349–510–8740.6%38.2%
TE371–558–19439.9%39.1%
QB198–194–1950.5%49.6%
WR479–778–8938.1%36.3%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
flag716–1049–20440.6%39.1%
0.25–0.5651–959–18340.4%38.7%
0.5–129–31–248.3%48.3%
1+1–150.0%49.6%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQBRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Starters out on defense calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2025 W17Brayden WillisTE SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.0)0.50.0−0.5pushBacktest ·
2025 W17Blake WhiteheartTE CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0)0.60.0−0.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Dalton KincaidTE BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.0)7.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Tucker KraftTE GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.0)7.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Payne DurhamTE TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0)0.60.0−0.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Sam LaPortaTE DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0)10.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Michael MayerTE LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.0)4.317.9+13.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Luke MusgraveTE GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.0)4.20.0−4.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Brock BowersTE LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.0)12.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Ja'Tavion SandersTE CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.0)4.40.0−4.4voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Cade StoverTE HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.0)3.00.0−3.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Tanner McLachlanTE CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.0)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Brenden BatesTE CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0)0.92.9+2.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Treyton WelchTE NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)0.50.0−0.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Dallin HolkerTE NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Colson YankoffTE WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.0)0.60.0−0.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Devin CulpTE TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17AJ BarnerTE SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)8.613.3+4.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Jared WileyTE KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1)0.60.0−0.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Ben SinnottTE WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.0)1.45.9+4.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Nick KallerupTE SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)0.30.0−0.3pushBacktest ·
2025 W17Colston LovelandTE CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0)10.421.4+11.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Mitchell EvansTE CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.0)2.51.6−0.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Jackson HawesTE BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.0)3.00.0−3.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Thomas Fidone IITE NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.0)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Moliki MatavaoTE NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)0.33.0+2.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Keleki LatuTE BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.0)0.60.0−0.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Zach HortonTE DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Jackson MeeksTE DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0)0.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Carter RunyonTE LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.0)0.20.0−0.2voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Harold Fannin Jr.TE CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0)10.411.0+0.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Elijah ArroyoTE SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)3.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Travis KelceTE KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)12.61.6−11.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Chris ManhertzTE NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0)0.20.0−0.2pushBacktest ·
2025 W16Austin HooperTE NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.0)3.35.4+2.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Hunter HenryTE NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.0)10.115.5+5.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Mo Alie-CoxTE INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0)1.53.6+2.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Johnny MundtTE JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.0)1.70.0−1.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Anthony FirkserTE DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0)1.48.0+6.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Robert TonyanTE KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)0.20.0−0.2pushBacktest ·
2025 W16Gerald EverettTE CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.0)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Ross DwelleyTE DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0)1.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Ian ThomasTE LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.0)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Tanner HudsonTE CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0)4.41.4−3.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Mark AndrewsTE BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0)9.84.4−5.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Durham SmytheTE CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.0)1.00.0−1.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Mike GesickiTE CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0)7.912.5+4.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Stephen CarlsonTE CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.0)0.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Drew SampleTE CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0)2.95.1+2.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Giovanni RicciTE DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0)0.40.0−0.4pushBacktest ·
2025 W16Cole KmetTE CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.0)6.33.4−2.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Albert OkwuegbunamTE LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.0)3.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Charlie WoernerTE ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.0)1.61.3−0.3pushBacktest ·
2025 W16Shane ZylstraTE DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0)0.65.0+4.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Quintin MorrisTE JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.0)1.41.5+0.1pushBacktest ·
2025 W16Noah GrayTE KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)3.70.0−3.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Zach DavidsonTE NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Brock WrightTE DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0)3.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Feleipe FranksTE ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.0)0.40.0−0.4pushBacktest ·
2025 W16Kyle PittsTE ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.0)13.718.7+5.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Hunter LongTE JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.0)2.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Teagan QuitorianoTE ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.0)0.20.0−0.2pushBacktest ·
2025 W16Andrew OgletreeTE INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0)0.92.1+1.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W16John FitzPatrickTE GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.0)2.40.0−2.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Ko KieftTE TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Peyton HendershotTE KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Isaiah LikelyTE BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0)6.60.0−6.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Jake FergusonTE DALBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.0)10.34.9−5.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Charlie KolarTE BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0)2.02.8+0.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Daniel BellingerTE NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0)2.80.0−2.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Cade OttonTE TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)6.03.5−2.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Will MalloryTE INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Luke SchoonmakerTE DALBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.0)2.30.0−2.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Princeton FantTE DALBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.0)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Brenton StrangeTE JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.0)7.514.9+7.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Tucker KraftTE GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.0)8.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Payne DurhamTE TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)0.80.0−0.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Sam LaPortaTE DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0)11.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Michael MayerTE LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.0)3.62.0−1.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Luke MusgraveTE GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.0)4.36.8+2.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Jack WestoverTE NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.0)0.30.0−0.3pushBacktest ·
2025 W16Baylor CuppTE KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Brock BowersTE LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.0)10.614.3+3.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Tanner McLachlanTE CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Jaheim BellTE NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.0)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Brevyn Spann-FordTE DALBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.0)1.10.0−1.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Cam GrandyTE CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0)0.71.1+0.4pushBacktest ·
2025 W16Devin CulpTE TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Jared WileyTE KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)1.10.0−1.1voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Theo JohnsonTE NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0)8.00.0−8.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Colston LovelandTE CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.0)10.36.0−4.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Tyler WarrenTE INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0)10.66.0−4.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Thomas Fidone IITE NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Zach HortonTE DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Jackson MeeksTE DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Carter RunyonTE LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.0)0.20.0−0.2pushBacktest ·
2025 W15Zach ErtzTE WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.0)9.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Darren WallerTE MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0)5.225.6+20.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Austin HooperTE NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.0)3.60.0−3.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Nick VannettTE LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.0)0.7––voidBacktest ·

NewerPage 3 of 19 · 1,882 callsOlder

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse