Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W8 | Luke FarrellTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 1.3 | 0.0 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Najee HarrisRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 14.9 | 16.1 | +1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Pat FreiermuthTE PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 7.5 | 3.9 | −3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Kadarius ToneyWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 3.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Michael CarterRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Rondale MooreWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 4.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Terrace Marshall Jr.WR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 6.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 18.2 | 8.7 | −9.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Kyle PittsTE ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 9.6 | 25.1 | +15.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Travis EtienneRB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 11.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Elijah MooreWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 8.6 | 16.5 | +7.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Trey SermonRB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 7.0 | 2.4 | −4.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Josh PalmerWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 10.5 | 9.2 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Amari RodgersWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Javonte WilliamsRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 15.7 | 9.2 | −6.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Hunter LongTE LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 1.1 | 2.8 | +1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Tommy TrembleTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 3.9 | 3.3 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Tre' McKittyTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Cole TurnerTE WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Tyler BadieRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 3.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Dareke YoungWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Tyler GoodsonRB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 5.8 | 0.0 | −5.8 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Jaylen WarrenRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 9.1 | 7.9 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Drake LondonWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 16.6 | 7.4 | −9.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Chris OlaveWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 10.5 | 18.7 | +8.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Jameson WilliamsWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 10.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | George PickensWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 15.1 | 11.4 | −3.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | James CookRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 14.6 | 28.3 | +13.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | David BellWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 3.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Khalil ShakirWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 7.9 | 19.9 | +12.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Ty ChandlerRB MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 6.4 | 0.0 | −6.4 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | James MitchellTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Jalen NailorWR MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 6.5 | 3.6 | −2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Andrew OgletreeTE IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 1.9 | 0.0 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Keaontay IngramRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 4.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Connor HeywardRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 2.1 | 0.0 | −2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Ko KieftTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 0.2 | 0.0 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Nick MuseTE MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Skylar ThompsonQB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 13.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Brandon JohnsonWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 1.7 | 0.0 | −1.7 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Ethan FerneaWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Tyreik McAllisterRB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Rod WilliamsTE PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Johnny Johnson IIIWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Stone SmarttTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 2.3 | 0.0 | −2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Jordan MasonRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 14.6 | 1.8 | −12.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Lucas KrullTE DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 4.4 | 3.8 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Rashid ShaheedWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 11.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Ronnie RiversRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Julius ChestnutRB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 1.5 | 3.2 | +1.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Aaron ShampklinRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | John Metchie IIIWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 1.7 | 5.9 | +4.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Tucker FiskTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Alec PierceWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 7.5 | 2.1 | −5.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Jeremy RuckertTE NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 1.9 | 4.4 | +2.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Calvin Austin IIIWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 4.9 | 20.4 | +15.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 18.1 | 22.6 | +4.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Zamir WhiteRB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 5.9 | -0.1 | −6.0 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Erik EzukanmaWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Breece HallRB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 17.6 | 9.9 | −7.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Cade OttonTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 9.6 | 29.1 | +19.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 16.0 | 8.5 | −7.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Lucky JacksonWR MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Israel AbanikandaRB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Will MalloryTE IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Evan HullRB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Zack KuntzTE NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Brady RussellRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Grant DuBoseWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 14.3 | 12.9 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Quentin JohnstonWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 8.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Tank BigsbyRB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 10.1 | 10.6 | +0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Darnell WashingtonTE PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 2.5 | 3.9 | +1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Michael WilsonWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 8.5 | 14.1 | +5.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Tre TuckerWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 8.8 | 5.3 | −3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Derius DavisWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Aidan O'ConnellQB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 9.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Dorian Thompson-RobinsonQB CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 11.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Justin ShorterWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | A.T. PerryWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 3.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Xavier HutchinsonWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 2.2 | 2.9 | +0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Antoine GreenWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Kenny McIntoshRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Tyrell ShaversWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Emari DemercadoRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 3.7 | 0.0 | −3.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Blake WhiteheartTE CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Jake BoboWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 3.3 | 2.5 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Nate AdkinsTE DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 1.1 | 7.3 | +6.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Jaleel McLaughlinRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 7.1 | 12.6 | +5.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Brycen TremayneWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Terrell BynumWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | SaRodorick Thompson Jr.RB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Dalton KincaidTE BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 9.3 | 13.1 | +3.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Brenton StrangeTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 3.4 | 10.9 | +7.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Tank DellWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 11.5 | 13.5 | +2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Cedric TillmanWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 5.7 | 28.9 | +23.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Jordan AddisonWR MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 11.2 | 4.2 | −7.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Josh DownsWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 10.3 | 22.2 | +11.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Tyjae SpearsRB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 6.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Payne DurhamTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse