Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W16 | Brashard SmithRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 3.7 | 1.4 | −2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Ashton JeantyRB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1) | 10.6 | 31.8 | +21.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | DJ GiddensRB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Ollie Gordon IIRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 3.0 | -0.1 | −3.1 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Kyle MonangaiRB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.3) | 10.6 | 12.3 | +1.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Jacory Croskey-MerrittRB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1) | 8.0 | 8.5 | +0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Josh WilliamsRB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.4) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Ulysses Bentley IVRB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Omarion HamptonRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 10.4 | 16.5 | +6.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | TreVeyon HendersonRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1) | 11.6 | 2.2 | −9.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Michael BurtonRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Raheem MostertRB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1) | 2.2 | 1.2 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Austin EkelerRB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 11.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jamaal WilliamsRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 3.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jeremy McNicholsRB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 4.9 | 1.2 | −3.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jeff WilsonRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Nyheim HinesRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Alexander MattisonRB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1) | 4.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Alec IngoldRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1) | 1.6 | 1.4 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Tony PollardRB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 10.0 | 18.2 | +8.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Ty JohnsonRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1) | 5.0 | 5.8 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | D'Ernest JohnsonRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | JaMycal HastyRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | J.K. DobbinsRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1) | 11.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Reggie GilliamRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | D'Andre SwiftRB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1) | 15.0 | 22.6 | +7.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Darrynton EvansRB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Antonio GibsonRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 3.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Joshua KelleyRB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Adam PrenticeRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1) | 2.1 | -0.1 | −2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Rhamondre StevensonRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 10.7 | 10.7 | −0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Avery WilliamsRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Tyler BadieRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1) | 3.4 | 1.1 | −2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | James CookRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1) | 18.2 | 31.1 | +12.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Tyler AllgeierRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 6.1 | 1.8 | −4.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Brittain BrownRB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1) | 2.9 | 0.0 | −2.9 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Sincere McCormickRB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Julius ChestnutRB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Zamir WhiteRB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Evan HullRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 3.1 | 1.2 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Bijan RobinsonRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 19.2 | 29.5 | +10.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Kendre MillerRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 5.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 5.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jordan MimsRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 4.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jaleel McLaughlinRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1) | 4.7 | 0.4 | −4.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Roschon JohnsonRB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Tyjae SpearsRB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 6.9 | 5.6 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1) | 18.0 | 18.7 | +0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Chris CollierRB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Audric EstiméRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 2.3 | 8.0 | +5.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Dylan LaubeRB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1) | 1.3 | 0.4 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Blake WatsonRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jaylen WrightRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1) | 3.6 | 2.1 | −1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Ray DavisRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1) | 2.7 | 2.3 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Ashton JeantyRB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1) | 12.2 | 8.2 | −4.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Ollie Gordon IIRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1) | 3.1 | 0.0 | −3.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Devin NealRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 12.0 | 10.2 | −1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Kalel MullingsRB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 0.7 | 0.3 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Kyle MonangaiRB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1) | 8.9 | 3.3 | −5.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jacory Croskey-MerrittRB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 8.8 | 15.6 | +6.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Nate CarterRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | RJ HarveyRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1) | 11.2 | 10.5 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | TreVeyon HendersonRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 10.5 | 30.1 | +19.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Samaje PerineRB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.3) | 5.5 | 4.8 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Gus EdwardsRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1) | 3.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Tony PollardRB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1) | 8.7 | 28.1 | +19.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Travis HomerRB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Josh JacobsRB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 16.4 | 17.2 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | D'Andre SwiftRB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1) | 12.9 | 11.2 | −1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Darrynton EvansRB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Joshua KelleyRB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Jaret PattersonRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1) | 3.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Najee HarrisRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1) | 3.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Brittain BrownRB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Julius ChestnutRB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Hassan HaskinsRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Chase BrownRB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.3) | 17.3 | 18.5 | +1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Scott MatlockRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Chris BrooksRB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 2.6 | 1.6 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Emanuel WilsonRB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 6.9 | 1.0 | −5.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Roschon JohnsonRB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Tyjae SpearsRB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1) | 6.2 | 6.7 | +0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Kendall MiltonRB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.3) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Kimani VidalRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1) | 10.9 | 11.4 | +0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Amar JohnsonRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Kalel MullingsRB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Tahj BrooksRB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.3) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Kyle MonangaiRB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1) | 7.5 | 8.7 | +1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Omarion HamptonRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1) | 10.9 | 14.7 | +3.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Cordarrelle PattersonRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | D'Onta ForemanRB CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.3) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jamaal WilliamsRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 4.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Nyheim HinesRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Saquon BarkleyRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 17.6 | 5.6 | −12.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Khari BlasingameRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Tony PollardRB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.3) | 10.4 | 5.3 | −5.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Trayveon WilliamsRB CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.3) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Craig ReynoldsRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | D'Ernest JohnsonRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | David MontgomeryRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1) | 10.7 | 12.8 | +2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse