Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth

Starters out on defense: every call

Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.

2024 backtest

716–1049–204

40.6% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.6% (95% 38.3%–42.9%) vs baseline 39.1%

2025 backtest

681–991–185

40.7% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.7% (95% 38.4%–43.1%) vs baseline 39.1%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

55–83–12

39.9% vs 39.4% baseline

Win rate 39.9% (95% 32.1%–48.2%) vs baseline 39.4%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
RB349–510–8740.6%38.2%
TE371–558–19439.9%39.1%
QB198–194–1950.5%49.6%
WR479–778–8938.1%36.3%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
flag716–1049–20440.6%39.1%
0.25–0.5651–959–18340.4%38.7%
0.5–129–31–248.3%48.3%
1+1–150.0%49.6%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQBRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Starters out on defense calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2025 W15Hunter HenryTE NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.0)10.32.8−7.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Tyler HigbeeTE LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.0)6.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Ian ThomasTE LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.0)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Dalton SchultzTE HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.0)10.121.6+11.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Irv SmithTE HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.0)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Foster MoreauTE NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.0)2.70.0−2.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Dawson KnoxTE BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0)6.218.7+12.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Juwan JohnsonTE NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.0)10.77.0−3.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Harrison BryantTE HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.0)0.90.0−0.9voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Colby ParkinsonTE LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.0)8.924.5+15.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Albert OkwuegbunamTE LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.0)3.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Charlie WoernerTE ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)1.33.2+1.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Stephen SullivanTE CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs NO, expected +0.0)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15John BatesTE WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.0)1.72.9+1.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Jack StollTE NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.0)1.01.7+0.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Feleipe FranksTE ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Kyle PittsTE ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)10.145.6+35.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Tommy TrembleTE CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs NO, expected +0.0)3.53.3−0.2pushBacktest ·
2025 W15Greg DulcichTE MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0)5.06.6+1.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Teagan QuitorianoTE ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)0.20.0−0.2pushBacktest ·
2025 W15James MitchellTE CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs NO, expected +0.0)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Zaire Mitchell-PadenTE NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.0)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Tanner ConnerTE MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Julian HillTE MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0)3.04.5+1.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Dalton KincaidTE BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0)7.66.4−1.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Michael MayerTE LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.0)4.00.0−4.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Davis AllenTE LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.0)3.94.6+0.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Jack WestoverTE NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.0)0.30.0−0.3pushBacktest ·
2025 W15Brock BowersTE LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.0)11.58.8−2.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Ja'Tavion SandersTE CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs NO, expected +0.0)4.22.5−1.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Cade StoverTE HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.0)2.95.2+2.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Jaheim BellTE NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.0)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Hayden RucciTE MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0)0.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Treyton WelchTE NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.0)0.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Dallin HolkerTE NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.0)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Colson YankoffTE WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.0)0.60.0−0.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Ben SinnottTE WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.0)0.74.6+3.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Mitchell EvansTE CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs NO, expected +0.0)2.20.0−2.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Jackson HawesTE BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0)2.51.9−0.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Moliki MatavaoTE NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.0)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Keleki LatuTE BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Carter RunyonTE LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.0)0.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Terrance FergusonTE LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.0)3.61.6−2.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W14Darren WallerTE MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0)5.42.7−2.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W14Eric TomlinsonTE LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.0)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Mo Alie-CoxTE INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.0)1.80.0−1.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W14Will DisslyTE LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.0)2.91.1−1.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W14Tyler ConklinTE LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.0)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Tanner HudsonTE CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.0)3.32.1−1.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W14Mark AndrewsTE BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0)9.71.9−7.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W14Mike GesickiTE CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.0)5.820.6+14.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W14Hayden HurstTE LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.0)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Drew SampleTE CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.0)2.30.0−2.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W14Noah FantTE CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.0)4.82.5−2.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W14Greg DulcichTE MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0)4.37.1+2.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W14Andrew OgletreeTE INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.0)1.20.0−1.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W14John FitzPatrickTE GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.0)1.53.4+1.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W14Ko KieftTE TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs NO, expected +0.0)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Tanner ConnerTE MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Isaiah LikelyTE BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0)6.212.5+6.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W14Charlie KolarTE BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0)2.12.9+0.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W14Cade OttonTE TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs NO, expected +0.0)7.14.9−2.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W14Will MalloryTE INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.0)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Josh WhyleTE GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.0)2.03.1+1.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W14Julian HillTE MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0)3.30.0−3.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W14Tucker KraftTE GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.0)8.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Payne DurhamTE TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs NO, expected +0.0)0.80.0−0.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W14Luke MusgraveTE GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.0)3.24.2+1.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W14Tanner McLachlanTE CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.0)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Hayden RucciTE MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0)0.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Cam GrandyTE CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.0)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W14Devin CulpTE TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs NO, expected +0.0)0.30.0−0.3pushBacktest ·
2025 W14Tyler WarrenTE INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.0)12.43.7−8.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W14Oronde Gadsden IITE LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.0)9.51.7−7.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W13MyCole PruittTE PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.0)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13C.J. UzomahTE PHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Geoff SwaimTE CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Austin HooperTE NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)4.30.0−4.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W13Nick VannettTE LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Hunter HenryTE NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)10.611.3+0.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Tyler HigbeeTE LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)7.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Johnny MundtTE JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.0)2.20.0−2.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W13Anthony FirkserTE DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.0)0.51.4+0.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Jonnu SmithTE PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.0)5.21.6−3.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W13David NjokuTE CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0)5.12.4−2.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W13Gerald EverettTE CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.0)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Ross DwelleyTE DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.0)0.51.3+0.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Dallas GoedertTE PHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)9.64.7−4.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W13Jordan AkinsTE CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0)2.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Durham SmytheTE CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.0)0.80.0−0.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W13Foster MoreauTE NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0)2.73.3+0.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Stephen CarlsonTE CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.0)0.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Juwan JohnsonTE NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0)11.38.9−2.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W13Colby ParkinsonTE LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)6.06.7+0.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Cole KmetTE CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.0)4.712.6+7.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Stephen SullivanTE CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.0)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Shane ZylstraTE DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.0)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Quintin MorrisTE JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.0)1.02.4+1.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Jack StollTE NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0)1.30.0−1.3voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Kylen GransonTE PHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)0.80.0−0.8voidBacktest ·

NewerPage 4 of 19 · 1,882 callsOlder

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse