Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W12 | Chris BrooksRB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 3.3 | 3.6 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Javon BakerWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Kyle JuszczykRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 3.2 | 3.2 | +0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Robert WoodsWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 3.7 | 3.3 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Geno SmithQB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 15.7 | 15.7 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Odell Beckham Jr.WR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 3.0 | 3.3 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Ezekiel ElliottRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 5.4 | 5.4 | +0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Courtland SuttonWR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 14.9 | 14.8 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | DK MetcalfWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 13.6 | 14.0 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Khalil ShakirWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 15.0 | 15.0 | −0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Justin ShorterWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Dallin HolkerTE NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 0.1 | 0.0 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Marcedes LewisTE CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Will DisslyTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 7.8 | 8.0 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | David MontgomeryRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 12.8 | 12.6 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Kenny YeboahTE NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 1.6 | 1.4 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Noah GrayTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 3.9 | 3.8 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Jake TongesTE SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 0.1 | 0.0 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Jahan DotsonWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 3.9 | 3.7 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Blake CorumRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 2.5 | 2.5 | −0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Kirk CousinsQB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 18.2 | 17.8 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Eric TomlinsonTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 1.0 | 1.2 | +0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | David MooreWR CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 3.7 | 4.0 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Juwan JohnsonTE NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 6.0 | 6.1 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Shane ZylstraTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Hunter LongTE LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 0.9 | 1.4 | +0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Teagan QuitorianoTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 0.2 | 0.0 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Trey McBrideTE ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 12.8 | 12.7 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Chig OkonkwoTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 7.1 | 6.8 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Brady RussellRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Kayshon BoutteWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 4.1 | 3.8 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Dallin HolkerTE NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 0.2 | 0.0 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Russell WilsonQB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 14.3 | 13.8 | −0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Tyreek HillWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 12.8 | 13.2 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Anthony FirkserTE NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 0.2 | 0.0 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | James ConnerRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 14.7 | 14.9 | +0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Ross DwelleyTE ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Will DisslyTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 9.3 | 9.1 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Sam DarnoldQB MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 17.8 | 18.2 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Alexander MattisonRB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 9.8 | 9.4 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Tony PollardRB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 15.2 | 14.7 | −0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Reggie GilliamRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Shane ZylstraTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Quintin MorrisTE BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Dee EskridgeWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 1.5 | 1.6 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Ko KieftTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 0.2 | 0.0 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Brady RussellRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Tank BigsbyRB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 10.1 | 10.6 | +0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 19.9 | 20.3 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Bub MeansWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 4.2 | 4.6 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Jaheim BellTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 0.2 | 0.0 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Blake CorumRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 2.9 | 2.8 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Devin CulpTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Drake MayeQB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 11.2 | 11.5 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Ross DwelleyTE ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Alec IngoldRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 1.6 | 1.4 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Terry McLaurinWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 16.2 | 15.8 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | DJ TurnerWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 3.8 | 3.7 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Dyami BrownWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 3.3 | 3.3 | +0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Pat FreiermuthTE PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 7.3 | 7.1 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Calvin Austin IIIWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 4.5 | 4.6 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Will MalloryTE IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 1.9 | 1.5 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Julian HillTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 1.6 | 1.4 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Ben SimsTE GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 0.9 | 1.2 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Audric EstiméRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 1.3 | 0.9 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Colson YankoffTE WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Jaylen WrightRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 3.0 | 3.3 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Joe FlaccoQB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 13.8 | 13.7 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Mack HollinsWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 7.3 | 7.8 | +0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Ross DwelleyTE ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Parker HesseTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 0.2 | 0.0 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Jonathan WardRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 1.3 | 1.3 | −0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | J.K. DobbinsRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 18.6 | 18.2 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Michael PittmanWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 12.9 | 12.5 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Tee HigginsWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 15.1 | 14.7 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Ko KieftTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Cade OttonTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 9.2 | 9.5 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Darnell WashingtonTE PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 2.1 | 1.9 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Jaheim BellTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Dallin HolkerTE NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Marcedes LewisTE CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Chris ManhertzTE NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 0.2 | 0.0 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Michael BurtonRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 1.2 | 1.5 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | James ConnerRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 13.6 | 14.0 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Christian KirkWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 13.0 | 12.8 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Antonio GibsonRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 6.5 | 6.6 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Van JeffersonWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 5.7 | 5.6 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Adam TrautmanTE DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 2.9 | 2.9 | +0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Andrew OgletreeTE IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX) | 1.7 | 1.5 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Ko KieftTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Aaron ShampklinRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 1.4 | 1.4 | −0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Cade OttonTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 7.8 | 7.4 | −0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Will MalloryTE IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX) | 1.9 | 1.7 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Malik HeathWR GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 3.1 | 3.4 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Ben SinnottTE WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Ross DwelleyTE ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Justin WatsonWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 4.3 | 4.7 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Trent SherfieldWR MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 2.1 | 1.8 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Parker HesseTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 0.2 | 0.0 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Brenton StrangeTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 5.0 | 4.9 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse