Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W14 | Isaiah WilliamsWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 2.3 | 10.4 | +8.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Kyle MonangaiRB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1) | 7.5 | 8.7 | +1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Omarion HamptonRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1) | 10.9 | 14.7 | +3.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Tyrod TaylorQB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected −0.3) | 11.3 | 21.3 | +10.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Kirk CousinsQB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected −0.3) | 12.3 | 13.4 | +1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Davante AdamsWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 17.2 | 21.8 | +4.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Hunter HenryTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 10.6 | 11.3 | +0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jacoby BrissettQB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected −0.3) | 14.7 | 19.6 | +5.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Anthony FirkserTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.0) | 0.5 | 1.4 | +0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Patrick MahomesQB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected −0.3) | 22.0 | 29.4 | +7.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Ross DwelleyTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.0) | 0.5 | 1.3 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Courtland SuttonWR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.3) | 12.8 | 17.2 | +4.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jakobi MeyersWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 11.1 | 21.3 | +10.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Foster MoreauTE NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0) | 2.7 | 3.3 | +0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | David SillsWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 3.9 | 9.5 | +5.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Marquise BrownWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 7.8 | 10.0 | +2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | A.J. BrownWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 15.5 | 35.2 | +19.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | David MontgomeryRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1) | 10.7 | 12.8 | +2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Colby ParkinsonTE LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 6.0 | 6.7 | +0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Cole KmetTE CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.0) | 4.7 | 12.6 | +7.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Quintin MorrisTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.0) | 1.0 | 2.4 | +1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Trevor LawrenceQB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected −0.3) | 16.5 | 21.7 | +5.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jerome FordRB CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.3) | 3.4 | 4.7 | +1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Deven ThompkinsWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 2.2 | 4.8 | +2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | John Metchie IIIWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 5.2 | 5.7 | +0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Xavier SmithWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 2.7 | 11.2 | +8.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Darnell WashingtonTE PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.0) | 4.7 | 6.5 | +1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Kayshon BoutteWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 8.4 | 13.5 | +5.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Brenton StrangeTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.0) | 7.9 | 13.5 | +5.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Tyjae SpearsRB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.3) | 7.5 | 8.4 | +0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Rashee RiceWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 17.8 | 29.4 | +11.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Bryce YoungQB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 11.7 | 22.5 | +10.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Devaughn VeleWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 5.9 | 23.3 | +17.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Mason TiptonWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 2.4 | 4.9 | +2.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Blake CorumRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 6.2 | 14.1 | +7.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Marvin Harrison Jr.WR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 11.3 | 12.9 | +1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Adonai MitchellWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 5.9 | 24.2 | +18.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Kyle WilliamsWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 2.2 | 10.3 | +8.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Pat BryantWR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.3) | 5.1 | 7.2 | +2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Mitchell EvansTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.0) | 1.9 | 5.0 | +3.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Harold Fannin Jr.TE CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0) | 7.7 | 11.3 | +3.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Bhayshul TutenRB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 5.8 | 8.9 | +3.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | TreVeyon HendersonRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 10.8 | 11.6 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Tyler ShoughQB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected −0.3) | 12.3 | 17.4 | +5.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Quinshon JudkinsRB CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.3) | 9.5 | 15.9 | +6.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Matthew StaffordQB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected −0.6) | 20.4 | 22.9 | +2.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Davante AdamsWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.3) | 17.0 | 23.2 | +6.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Kalif RaymondWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 4.7 | 5.7 | +1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Derrick HenryRB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 19.4 | 22.8 | +3.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Christian McCaffreyRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 24.7 | 27.2 | +2.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | George KittleTE SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 11.4 | 13.8 | +2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Kareem HuntRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1) | 12.1 | 20.0 | +7.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Durham SmytheTE CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0) | 0.8 | 1.4 | +0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Sam DarnoldQB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected −0.3) | 16.9 | 17.7 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Jakobi MeyersWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1) | 13.5 | 15.0 | +1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Ashton DulinWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1) | 1.6 | 5.8 | +4.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | A.J. BrownWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 14.7 | 25.0 | +10.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Michael PittmanWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1) | 12.9 | 13.7 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1) | 2.7 | 3.7 | +1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Jalen HurtsQB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected −0.3) | 19.4 | 30.9 | +11.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Chuba HubbardRB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 7.7 | 8.3 | +0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Brock WrightTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 3.8 | 5.9 | +2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Pat FreiermuthTE PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 5.8 | 10.9 | +5.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Kenny GainwellRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.4) | 9.2 | 18.2 | +9.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 23.0 | 29.9 | +6.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Travis EtienneRB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1) | 17.1 | 20.6 | +3.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Bam KnightRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 11.2 | 13.2 | +2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | John FitzPatrickTE GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0) | 1.3 | 2.1 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Brian RobinsonRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 4.8 | 5.4 | +0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 10.8 | 13.1 | +2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Parker WashingtonWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1) | 10.8 | 18.1 | +7.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Chris BrooksRB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.1) | 2.5 | 3.6 | +1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Emanuel WilsonRB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.1) | 8.0 | 26.5 | +18.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Brenton StrangeTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.0) | 6.5 | 14.3 | +7.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 24.0 | 55.4 | +31.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Devaughn VeleWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 4.4 | 6.7 | +2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Mason TiptonWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 1.4 | 6.3 | +4.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Jordan WhittingtonWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.3) | 3.8 | 4.7 | +0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Darius CooperWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 0.4 | 2.7 | +2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Colston LovelandTE CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0) | 7.5 | 14.9 | +7.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Jackson HawesTE BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1) | 3.1 | 4.6 | +1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Kyle MonangaiRB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1) | 8.2 | 10.8 | +2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Gunnar HelmTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 4.8 | 11.1 | +6.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Konata MumpfieldWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.3) | 1.2 | 4.5 | +3.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Kyle JuszczykRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3) | 3.8 | 4.6 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Travis KelceTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.0) | 10.3 | 24.1 | +13.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Stefon DiggsWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 16.9 | 19.5 | +2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Tyler LockettWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 5.7 | 6.3 | +0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Derrick HenryRB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1) | 16.4 | 20.2 | +3.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Christian McCaffreyRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3) | 24.4 | 35.1 | +10.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | George KittleTE SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1) | 11.5 | 24.7 | +13.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Robert TonyanTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.0) | 0.1 | 1.1 | +1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Kareem HuntRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1) | 10.6 | 13.2 | +2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Ian ThomasTE LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.0) | 0.9 | 3.0 | +2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Dalton SchultzTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 8.9 | 11.1 | +2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Tanner HudsonTE CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0) | 3.5 | 5.2 | +1.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Durham SmytheTE CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0) | 0.3 | 1.8 | +1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Ty JohnsonRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 4.5 | 15.0 | +10.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Noah FantTE CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0) | 6.1 | 6.6 | +0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Deebo Samuel Sr.WR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 16.2 | 20.7 | +4.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse